Stansbury vs. Moores results & analysis

The results of the special election to replace Deb Haaland in Congressional District 1 are in and Melanie Stansbury didn’t just win, she blew Mark Moores out of the water winning 60% to 36%.

Here are a few takeaways from the results:

1. In its current form, CD 1 is now a safe “progressive” seat for Democrats. They can run anyone they want and have as left-leaning views as they want and win comfortably.
2. Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller who faces re-election this fall must be pleased by the results knowing that crime and the “progressive” response to Albuquerque’s serious crime problems didn’t do much to help Mark Moores.
3. With redistricting coming up later this summer, it would seem that Democrats in the Legislature might consider taking some of CD1’s more left-leaning areas and moving them into CD2 in order to make things more difficult for Yvette Herrell, New Mexico’s lone Republican in Congress.
4. Traditionally the GOP has had an advantage in low-turnout elections with more consistent voters turning out to vote for Republican candidates, but that advantage became a disadvantage in the Moores v. Stansbury race. Moores received 46,977 votes (36% of the total) this year. In 2020 Michelle Garcia Holmes received 134,337 votes (42% of the total). Achieving that kind of turnout in a special election is simply not going to happen, but it doesn’t seem like the GOP ground game was very effective.
5. While the Moores campaign will undoubtedly be criticized for its shortcomings, he is THE ONLY Republican in the Legislature to successfully hold a seat in the City of Albuquerque. He DOES know how to win elections in this City.