Understanding spending and its growth under Gov. MLG

A policy blogger named Maria Davidson recently started posting a series of charts contrasting the growth in state spending vs the growth in the same state’s population over the past decade (one for California is linked). I asked for a New Mexico version of her chart, but none was forthcoming, so I made my own. But then I realized that growth over the past decade isn’t nearly as interesting as growth under the current Gov. MLG, so here we are.

But first we have to define what state spending actually means and it isn’t JUST the FY 2027 General Fund budget of $11.1 billion which has grown by 81% under the current Gov. However, with the oil and gas driven growth of New Mexico’s permanent funds and continued reliance on federal spending, New Mexico’s total budget is MUCH bigger than just the general fund.

How big? According to the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO), in FY 2019 MLG’s first budget was a robust $19.5 billion. That already large number has grown to $29.7 billion under MLG’s FY 2025 budget. In other words, New Mexico’s total spending has grown 52% under Lujan Grisham (excluding the last two fiscal years). See below

How’s New Mexico’s population doing? In 2019 using simple google searches it was 2,096,829. As of 2025 that number had grown to 2,136,838. That’s total growth of just 2.48%. Needless to say, New Mexico’s budget has grown massively under the current administration fueled by oil and gas revenues. This number will likely continue to grow rapidly in the years ahead driven partially by state expenditures from the permanent funds for pre-K and state-funded “free” childcare.

You can see the chart along with source data on both below: