Report: New Mexico to see dramatic decline in student enrollment
While New Mexico continues to spend more every year on K-12 education we have documented the fact that the number of kids being educated in New Mexico’s largest district and the state as a whole have been plummeting. But, as we also noted, this trend of declining numbers of children/youth is only getting started. And, while demography is going to be a serious challenge throughout developed economies worldwide, the reality here in the United States is that population shifts are not distributed evenly.
In fact, despite great weather and being located in the American Southwest (a fast growing part of the US), according to a new report from Bellwether, New Mexico is going to see the 3rd-steepest decline in its K-12 population between now and FY 2031. With a projected drop of 15.1 percent New Mexico’s student population decline trails only deep blue (politically) states Hawaii and California.
Other neighboring states (with the exception of Colorado) are either growing or holding steady in terms of the number of young people. But, the steep drop in New Mexico’s youth population has not elicited much of a response at all from the media or the State’s political leadership.
- New Mexico’s education spending both per-pupil and in real terms has grown even while the student population has declined. How much more will New Mexico spend on K-12 at a time of declining enrollment?
- Under the current Gov. the State has embraced “free” childcare, “free” pre-K, and “free” college. Will any of these “move the needle” in terms of the number of students?
- While population trends overall are heading down, why is New Mexico seeing such stark declines? What policies could actually move the needle?
