Can Virgin Galactic really launch space tourism flights by the end of 2026?

Virgin Galactic has gone 16 months without a launch. They also haven’t had test flights of their new Delta “spacecraft” which they hope will be financially viable in a way that their original craft was not. Recently Virgin Galactic pledged that they’d be launching by the 4th quarter of 2026, about a year from now.

It is worth the reminder that Virgin Galactic is the flagship tenant at New Mexico’s taxpayer-funded (thanks to then-Gov. Bill Richardson, a Democrat). Advocates for the Spaceport continue to claim the facility is financially viable, but we have serious questions about those calculations. 

Virgin Galactic has often made bold predictions about their launch schedules. As space analyst Doug Messier notes,

Virgin Galactic has been on track to achieve one goal after another since Richard Branson announced plans to fly tourists to space in September 2004. In 21 years the company has seldom met its schedule.

Delays are quite common in big space projects. The problem is Virgin Galactic’s delays have been epic in scale. The company has exhibited a unique brand of excessive optimism coupled with a chronic inability to deliver.

Will Virgin Galactic succeed in returning paying customers to near-space before the end of 2026? We’d bet not. Will the company ever truly make money given the fact that competing private space companies (like Blue Origin) are racing ahead with more and better launches?