Stansbury vs. Moores results & analysis

The results of the special election to replace Deb Haaland in Congressional District 1 are in and Melanie Stansbury didn’t just win, she blew Mark Moores out of the water winning 60% to 36%.

Here are a few takeaways from the results:

  1. In its current form, CD 1 is now a safe “progressive” seat for Democrats. They can run anyone they want and have as left-leaning views as they want and win comfortably.
  2. Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller who faces re-election this fall must be pleased by the results knowing that crime and the “progressive” response to Albuquerque’s serious crime problems didn’t do much to help Mark Moores.
  3. With redistricting coming up later this summer, it would seem that Democrats in the Legislature might consider taking some of CD1’s more left-leaning areas and moving them into CD2 in order to make things more difficult for Yvette Herrell, New Mexico’s lone Republican in Congress.
  4. Traditionally the GOP has had an advantage in low-turnout elections with more consistent voters turning out to vote for Republican candidates, but that advantage became a disadvantage in the Moores v. Stansbury race. Moores received 46,977 votes (36% of the total) this year. In 2020 Michelle Garcia Holmes received 134,337 votes (42% of the total). Achieving that kind of turnout in a special election is simply not going to happen, but it doesn’t seem like the GOP ground game was very effective.
  5. While the Moores campaign will undoubtedly be criticized for its shortcomings, he is THE ONLY Republican in the Legislature to successfully hold a seat in the City of Albuquerque. He DOES know how to win elections in this City.

New Mexico congressional race tests effectiveness of GOP's attacks on  police reform proposals - CNNPolitics

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3 Replies to “Stansbury vs. Moores results & analysis”

  1. Quality analysis. Keller probably feels safer in his re-election bid than he did before this election, though the low turnout (election so close to Memorial Day weekend, relatively unknown candidates) don’t make it necessarily as clear cut. U.S. Congress members aren’t responsible for crime in Albuquerque. Keller is, so it’s not all downhill for him.

  2. Here is the link to the NMSOS website with stats for registration per congressional district. Dems have an 18 point registration advantage over the Republicans in in CD 1 and an even larger advantage of 21 points in CD 3. In CD 2, it’s tied at 38, each. https://www.sos.state.nm.us/2021-voter-registration-data/

    In the CD 1 special election, the total turn out was just 28% of registered voters. I think the # for last fall’s presidential election was in the high 70s. With such a low turn out, Mr. Moores had little chance of success.

  3. In a single-party state, the party BECOMES the state.
    NOT a good result!
    Look at union-run education (Nearly 50 years of lost people, or four generations of lost students in grades 1-12). This country is being humiliated on the world stage.

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