Albuquerque Public Schools’ plummeting enrollment (and New Mexico’s demographic crisis)

Perhaps the most under covered, but absolutely critical story in New Mexico is the precipitous decline in the number of students attending the State’s largest district: Albuquerque Public Schools. KRQE Channel 13 did an admirable job covering the story, noting that “the district has seen a massive drop in total enrollment, with about 27,000 fewer students this year compared to 2010.” The decline from a student population of 88,096 down to 61,982 represents a decline of 30% in just over 15 years.

More details are available in the APS budget presentation. Here are the takeaways:

1. This is not a trend confined to APS as the State saw a decline of 7,500 students in public schools throughout New Mexico last year.
2. New Mexico/APS are not alone in seeing student population declines, but the problem is more severe here than in most states due to our State’s overall population decline which is being driven by a shift towards retirees with younger people leaving the State.
3. MLG’s restrictive COVID pushed young people with families out of state, but the State’s poor education system and high crime combined with relatively limited economic opportunity are also factors.
4. The declines in student populations at APS and statewide have had little to no effect in terms of education budgets which continue to grow rapidly thanks to oil and gas revenues.
5. Rather than make needed reforms to New Mexico’s education system the Gov. and Legislature continue to add new spending programs with “free” universal pre-K, “free” universal child care, and “free” college all being instituted by the MLG administration. No evidence has been shown that any of these programs have attracted families with children to New Mexico or that they have boosted overall outcomes for the economy or individual students.
6. Based on national and state demographic trends New Mexico’s decline in student population is expected to continue and possibly accelerate in the years ahead. 
7. Nothing of significance has been done by policymakers in Santa Fe to address New Mexico’s deepening demographic challenge.  We recommend a combination of both economic reforms AND changes to the education system like school choice and adoption of the “Mississippi Model” to improve performance.