As we shared in this space last week despite continued growth in oil and gas revenues (totaling an expected $13.6 billion in FY 2026) Gov. Lujan Grisham’s proposed budget contains NO tax cuts or rebates for New Mexicans or business owners. Here is a bit more analysis of the Gov.’s proposed budget plan which represents a 7% increase over the previous year’s budget. Aside from the lack of any tax cuts or rebates, the most notable aspect of MLG’s budget is its size. Clocking in at $10.9 billion it represents a 73% increase from the final budget of her predecessor Susana Martinez back in FY 2019.

Have New Mexicans benefited from all of this new spending? Our roads are poor, our education system remains dead last (despite the addition of “free” pre-K and “free” college), and public safety remains a serious issue. Analysts note that New Mexico continues to grow more dependent on oil and gas.

More government spending hasn’t solved New Mexico’s big problems, but MLG and the Legislature show no signs of being willing to shrink the size of government and bring economic growth and prosperity to the State. So, we’ll continue to fritter away this unique opportunity to transform New Mexico into a prosperous, freer state.

On the latest Tipping Point interview Paul talks to Dean Stansel, lead author of the 2024 Economic Freedom of North America report. What is economic freedom and why is it so important? Why does New Mexico lag in it and why is it getting worse?

As reported earlier this week, New Mexico remains in an unprecedented oil and gas boom. New Mexico expects to collect a mind-blowing $13.6 billion from the oil and gas industry alone while even MLG’s proposed FY 2026 budget “only” spends $10.9 billion (spending has increased 45% since MLG took over in 2019).

But, don’t expect for businesses and taxpayers to see anything out of this latest budget. The Gov. proposes NO TAX CUTS or REBATES at all in her proposed budget according to Dan Boyd of the Albuquerque Journal. Instead, government will grow by another nearly 7% in the next budget, if adopted.

While the Legislature will put out its own budget plan before the upcoming 2025 session, don’t expect much help from the Legislature. Senate Finance Committee Chair George Muñoz (what passes as a “reasonable” Democrat in the Legislature these days) downplayed even rebates saying, “rebates were pretty much a waste of money” and that “the state could have used the money better by funneling it into trust funds for future use.”

While at RGF we prefer tax cuts and reform to rebates, Muñoz’ statement that they are a waste of money is ridiculous, especially when the alternative is for government to simply hold onto the money in various sovereign wealth funds or spend it on numerous ineffective programs. Sadly, New Mexico voters had a choice in November and decided to stick with legislative candidates who seem hell bent on putting as many resources as possible under government control while solving precisely ZERO of New Mexico’s actual problems.

via GIPHY

The Rio Grande Foundation’s work is heavily-focused on economic freedom. You can find the full Economic Freedom of North America report for 2024 here. Below are two charts which illustrate New Mexico’s performance going back to 1981 on the various components of economic freedom: Government Spending, Taxation, and Regulation (along w/ an overall ranking). These are, of course, relative to other states so everything is graded on a curve.

New Mexico ranks 47th in 2024.

You can actually see how states evolve all the way back to 1981 here. New Mexico hasn’t always been as bad as it is now.

New Mexico drops two spots to 47th in latest Economic Freedom of North America.

UNM football loses head coach. Why does this have economic importance?

“Free” college drives up attendance at New Mexico colleges and universities, but to what end?

Bernalillo County is voting on Tuesday to potentially raise County Commissioner salaries under the recently-passed constitutional amendment. Is YOUR county voting to increase commissioner salaries soon?

MLG wants to potentially move the New Mexico’s State Fair. Paul and Wally take a closer look. .

We took a look at Maxeon Solar’s financials and they are UGLY.

6% of federal workers are in the office full time while one-third are fully remote.

The chart below (taken from the Albuquerque Journal) highlights New Mexico’s ongoing revenue boom thanks to the oil and gas industry. State revenue once again is set to rise in FY 2026 meaning the Legislature will have plenty of money to both increase spending AND cut or reform New Mexico’s business-unfriendly tax structure.

While growth is not as rapid as it was for a few years, oil and gas revenue ALONE is more than enough to pay for New Mexico’s general fund budget for FY 2025 of $10.2 billion. The question is whether the recently-reelected “progressive” majority has the interest in enacting pro-growth tax policies for the benefit of New Mexicans and the State economy.

RGF will be working to make sure that tax cuts are as large and will improve/diversify New Mexico’s economy. We will also fight against ALL unnecessary and unfair tax hikes. It will be another challenging session but New Mexico’s problems can’t be blamed on a lack of resources.

New Mexico’s health care provider shortage remains a critical issue for our State. RGF’s president recently interviewed Fred Nathan of Think New Mexico on the subject and RGF has its own recommendations about addressing the shortage which can be found here.

There are numerous things that need to be done, but politicians in New Mexico are not all on board with solving the issue. Check out this letter to the editor written by the head of New Mexico’s Medical Association. 

Check out this paragraph:

During a recent presentation to the Legislative Health and Human Services Committee, I presented innovative solutions to the physician shortage, ranging from the elimination of prior authorization requirements to the creation of a Medicaid trust to secure care for generations to come. Instead of exploring those solutions, state Rep. Eleanor Chavez demanded to know my personal salary and my practice’s gross income. To make matters worse, when presented with data that New Mexico is the only state to have lost physicians in recent years, state Rep. Liz Thomson proclaimed the data is “propaganda.” Patients can assure Thomson that the data is very real. The following day, Thomson questioned how much physicians spend on wine.

Sadly, this kind of jealousy and ignorance is common in New Mexico among the “progressives” who dominate our Legislature and other elected bodies. We will be working this session to address the medical provider shortage. Hopefully the other “progressives” in Santa Fe are more willing to play nice.

On Election Day voters in the state of New Mexico overwhelmingly voted to revise New Mexico’s Constitution to put county commissions themselves in charge of setting their pay (Amendment 4). While at the Rio Grande Foundation we had our doubts about this plan the voters overwhelmingly passed it.

So, (with limited time left in 2024 to adopt new county commissioner salaries for 2025) at Tuesday’s meeting there will likely be a vote on the new salaries of Bernalillo County Commissioners. (Check your local county commission for details on their plans to vote on revisions as well).

Currently, commissioners in Bernalillo County receive $39,000 annually (see page 1009 of the agenda for Tuesday).

One plan would increase salaries to $150,000 annually. Another would leave salaries at current rates. Other plans would increase rates by some percentage rate of increase.

What is the correct salary for Bernalillo County commissioners? It would certainly not be wise to raise them 4X to $150,000. Whatever you think send commissioners a note by the meeting time on Tuesday at 5pm.

The following appeared in the Las Cruces Sun on Sunday, December 8, 2024.

Among the numerous economic policy areas that hold New Mexico back is its heavy regulatory burden. Unnecessarily heavy regulations on business can make it harder than necessary to start and grow a business in New Mexico. The good news is that at least some regulatory reforms show real potential for bipartisanship in Santa Fe.

New Mexico could (and should) take a step toward regulatory reform by embracing what are known as “regulatory sandboxes.” In 2023 Albuquerque Democrat Rep. Meredith Dixon introduced an innovative form of legislation (HB 356), “The Technology Sandbox Act.”

While it didn’t pass or get so much as a hearing in 2023, the concept is relatively new to New Mexico and needs to be at least heard and discussed in legislative committees in the upcoming 60-day session. The concept of “regulatory sandboxes” is one that could be applied successfully to other areas of the State economy.

First and foremost, what is a “sandbox?”  Simply put, it is a regulatory “space” for entrepreneurs and innovators, from small start-ups to large corporations, to try new ways of doing things without excessive, outdated regulations. Sandboxes allow regulators the flexibility to safely monitor and foster new ideas instead of simply shutting them down.

The concept didn’t come from a “red” state like Texas or “blue” state like California. It started in the UK in 2014 for financial technology innovations and quickly spread to other countries. In the US, several states targeted the fintech, insurance, and property tech industries while more states have begun to look at the industries of agriculture, healthcare, and energy.

Industry-specific sandboxes are a good way to start, but the goal is to allow for a universal sandbox to provide flexibility to all industries, creating a fair process that boosts economic growth while empowering businesses both big and small. Four states (Arizona, Kentucky, Utah, and now Missouri) have these broad sandboxes.

Outdated and unnecessary regulations don’t just hurt businesspeople. We can’t know how many business ideas either fail or aren’t attempted due to archaic regulations that are inapplicable to modern models. Sandboxes let businesses do what they do best: solve problems for consumers.

Hopefully New Mexico’s newly minted and much-changed Legislature will take a more business-friendly approach to all manner of public policy issues starting with the upcoming 60-day session. With a more moderate approach we can certainly hope that a focus on actually growing our economy and diversifying it while continuing to benefit from the oil and gas boom would be winning approaches for Republicans and Democrats alike.

We have made the case for tax reform and reduction, but New Mexico’s thicket of regulations also holds us back. Regulatory “sandboxes” are a bi-partisan approach that is worth exploring this session.

Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation, an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility.

MLG’s preferred and heavily-subsidized solar panel manufacturer Maxeon has released their financials for the 3rd quarter of 2024. UGLY doesn’t begin to describe them. Here’s a link. This is the company she wants to pour $600 million worth of subsidies into? Shipments and Revenue are way down while losses are way up. There are undoubtedly uglier financials out there in corporate America, but few are receiving the kind of financial support New Mexico is poised to give Maxeon.

On this week’s interview Paul talks to Fred Nathan of Think New Mexico. The organization has a new policy report about the State’s ongoing medical provider shortage. Paul and Fred discuss the organization’s findings, whether the Legislature will be open to them, and areas of agreement/disagreement they have. Fred and his organization hope to make this a top priority in the upcoming session. Check out this timely and important conversation!

RGF has ALSO done similar research (often with similar findings as Think New Mexico). You can find our work here and here.

In what can only be described as a “gut punch” for UNM football fans, Bronco Mendenhall, the head coach of UNM’s football team has left the program to take over at Utah State University. Utah State happens to be in the same Mountain West Conference at UNM but is considered to be at a lower level than University of Utah or BYU, both of which play in higher level conferences.

What does this have to do with the Rio Grande Foundation? For starters, football is a particularly financially driven sport, especially now with Name Image and Likeness rules that allow athletes to be compensated for their efforts.

The fact is that Utah is a more economically diversified state that is growing from both a population and economic perspective.

No two words define the work of the Rio Grande Foundation better than “economic freedom.” Everything the Foundation does is geared towards increased economic freedom for New Mexicans.

Sadly, with today’s release of the annual Economic Freedom of
North America 2024 index published by the Canada-based Fraser Institute and Bridwell Center at Southern Methodist University, New Mexico dropped from an already poor 45th position to an even worse 47th ranking.

Under Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and the State’s “progressive” Legislature, New Mexico’s performance on the three major indices which make up economic freedom (taxation, government spending, and regulation) have worsened relative to other states. As of the 2024 index, New Mexico outperforms only California, New York, and Hawaii. The best performing states in the index are New Hampshire, Idaho, and Oklahoma.

Economic freedom is widely correlated with better economic outcomes in terms of reduced poverty and reduced inequality.

You can see all the states and their various quartiles from the cover page of the new report below, but in order to read the full report you can click here or click on the image below:

New Mexico’s institutes of higher education are seeing a modest influx in the number of students thanks to “free” college. Whether that is a particularly good thing or not is open to question, but before making a decision you should probably check the charts below out. You can find them at page 5 of this document.

You can see graduation rates for both universities and colleges as well as the fact that the recent uptick in college attendance is relatively small considering the stark decline in student numbers in the 3rd chart (below).

It certainly seems that New Mexico’s community college graduation rates are low, but that is also the case for Northern NM and Highlands Universities. What is New Mexico getting for the billions of dollars that have been invested in higher education?

New Mexico has some of the most generous film subsidies in the nation. The State offers a “refundable credit” or taxpayer subsidy of up to 40% of what they spend in New Mexico. New Mexico’s film subsidies are some of the most generous in the nation.

RGF is not a fan of film subsidies and the Legislative Finance Committee says that the subsidies are a money-loser.

But, when it comes to the film industry in New Mexico a 40% subsidy is not enough. The latest planned studio Mesa Film Studios will be receiving LEDA funding in the amount of $6,750,000.  $6,000,000 will come from the State while the City of Albuquerque is expected to provide $750,000.

How many taxpayer-funded film studios are enough in a state that already pays for up to 40% of film production costs?

Joe Biden pardons his son for ANY federal crime dating back to 2014. This is a major about face and further highlights Biden’s family corruption.

Maxeon Solar moves forward in NM with a dramatically scaled back plant. Will their subsidies be scaled back as well?

Has MLG put New Mexico on a path to banning RV sales? 

A proposal to put MORE New Mexicans on Medicaid will be introduced this session.

Also, a proposal to weaken New Mexico’s anti-donation clause will be introduced this session.

Finally, Paul has a brief conversation with small-time mine operator Lori Coleman about the situation regarding a potential Biden Administration monument designation before he leaves office.

Laws supporting good government in New Mexico are few, far between, and often ignored or ineffective. One of the few provisions in New Mexico law that are meant to protect taxpayers and the public from ill-advised government policy is the “anti-donation clause.” The idea was placed in New Mexico’s Constitution due to abuses between politicians and the railroads which received large tracts of state-held land to lure them to New Mexico (and other states).

The clause has been weakened in recent years, but we are currently in litigation over the clause and whether the Albuquerque City Council can donate OUR money to a private interest (Planned Parenthood). We believe the answer is “no.” We’d love to see it harder for New Mexico governments to donate OUR tax dollars to private entities (especially for supposed “economic development” which is of course why we have an anti-donation clause in the first place).

What changes are in store? We don’t know yet. Here’s an article from the Santa Fe New Mexican outlining the plans albeit with few specifics.

Will recreational vehicle sales be prohibited in New Mexico by 2027? That’s what the industry is saying (thanks to New Mexico following California’s “clean car standard.” The ban in California could start as soon as January 1, 2025. Read articles directly from the RV industry about the issue here and here. There is also a map showing the states (including New Mexico) that plan to follow California’s ban on RV sales below.

The good news is as follows:

1. New Mexico will be able to see what happens in California and a handful of other states (in red below) as soon as this January before our ban is implemented.
2. There is a very real possibility that President Trump will eliminate or alter California’s broad authority to dictate the sale of electric vehicles (and the ability of other states like New Mexico to follow California’s policies).

Tom Clifford has an extensive background in taxation and fiscal matters for New Mexico. He was Cabinet Secretary of the Department of Finance and Administration in the Martinez Administration, Tax Policy Director at Taxation and Revenue Department, and Economist at Taxation and Revenue Department, Department of Finance and Administration, and the Legislative Finance Committee.

Tom and Paul discuss the issues affecting taxation in New Mexico, discuss some strategies to improve the economy of the state through tax policy as well management of the large permanent funds that exist in New Mexico.

As the Albuquerque Journal reports MLG’s favorite solar panel manufacturing company Maxeon has finally announced their plans for a manufacturing facility in Albuquerque. But, they’re NOT breaking ground at a new facility at Mesa del Sol. Instead, they are moving into the former Honeywell facility.

Whether the move is a win for MLG or New Mexico is an open question, but the move takes Maxeon from a proposed a brand new 1.9 million-square-foot facility down to just a 110,000 square foot facility. That’s a shrinking of their New Mexico footprint by nearly 95% (a number which approaches the steep decline in the company’s stock price). Will the generosity of New Mexico’s massive taxpayer subsidies shrink with their shrinking footprint?

Despite the recent election of President Trump Maxeon’s stock price has rebounded slightly in recent weeks which is likely related to the company’s dramatic changes in management and focus.

NM House speaker says “Trump Could Learn from NM”: how’s that?

MLG claims New Mexico’s child poverty rate dropped from50th to a ranking of 17th. What’s the REAL story?

NM’s stark decline in public school enrollment is set to accelerate. .

Economic ignorance of those “leading” New Mexico is a real problem.

The US Constitution should be amended to keep the Court at 9members. 

Heritage Foundation finds New Mexico election integrity ranked 36th.

MLG’s symposium on transportation omits the dominant transportation technology and other important issues.

NM State auditor finds numerous instances of wasteful spending at WNMU.

The front page of the Albuquerque Journal has an article highlighting the potential for the Legislature to adopt “Medicaid Forward” in the 2025 legislative session. Most of the article is glowing in its reporting on the potential for yet another expansion of government dependency in New Mexico. The idea behind Medicaid Forward is to allow New Mexicans above the 200% federal poverty thresh hold to receive Medicaid.

The estimated cost of the plan is $88 million, but we know this is a lowball number based on past experience. Even more importantly, New Mexico is ALREADY massively dependent on Medicaid whether you take the data from World Population Review or New Mexico’s own Legislative Finance Committee’s slightly higher 47% estimate. Vast numbers of New Mexicans are on government welfare and that hasn’t done much for our outcomes (health or otherwise).

Further expanding Medicaid is yet another way to fritter away the State’s oil and gas surplus. Hopefully the Trump Administration prevents this and perhaps reforms Medicaid to make it less costly as well.

New Mexico Gov. Lujan Grisham recently went on leftist cable TV channel MSNBC to make her opposition to the Trump Administration crystal clear (use the link to watch the full 10 minute interview). There were two interesting items:

1. MLG claimed that “New Mexico went from 50th in child poverty to 17th.” No such improvement happened. As we have written, New Mexico’s “improvement” in child poverty is driven by the use of a different data set (the Census Bureau’s “supplemental” poverty measure). Volumes have been written about the myriad issues with this “supplemental” measure. We don’t take a position on whether the traditional or supplemental is better but MLG is being her usual disingenuous self in claiming this massive improvement in child poverty (especially when ALL other reports show New Mexico to be NOT doing a good job with child outcomes). You can read an article here that is VERY sympathetic to the Gov. that explains what is happening.

2. It is both hilarious and a sign of the media’s extreme bias (especially MSNBC) that they would include New Mexico’s Gov. as an “expert” on education policy considering New Mexico’s worst-in-the-nation outcomes and ongoing failure. The idea of eliminating the Department of Education (as Trump is considering) is certainly worth looking at (MLG’s protests not withstanding). The Department has done nothing to improve New Mexico’s education outcomes in New Mexico or anywhere else. But, it is laughable to value MLG’s opinions on an issue where she has failed so miserably.

The Albuquerque Journal recently had an article about the impending return of Trump to the White House. The interviewed numerous New Mexico politicians including Speaker Javier Martinez. Needless to say there is going to be a lot of back-and-forth between Trump’s Republican Administration and New Mexico’s left wing politicians.

But what REALLY stuck with me is the following quote from Speaker Martinez:

The hubris of a politician who has a real position of power in a State that is last in education, highest in poverty, has one of the highest crime rates, and is almost entirely dependent economically on a combination of oil and gas and federal spending takes “cajones” to say the least. New Mexico is blessed in many ways: weather, vistas, natural resources, and cultures (to name a few), but governance is most definitely where New Mexico is weakest (and among the weakest in the nation). In fact Wallethub places New Mexico 3rd-worst in return on investment despite the fact that our tax burdens are kept (relatively) low thanks to the aforementioned oil and gas revenues.

Perhaps Speaker Martinez and the rest of New Mexico’s Democrats should go to Washington to meet and learn from Trump? The following images are from the annual Kids Count report of the Annie E. Casey Foundation.