Errors of Enchantment

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NM Economic Development Department responds to billboard campaign
10.10.2025

Recently we covered a billboard campaign undertaken by one man in an effort to highlight New Mexico politicians’ failures on a variety of issues relating to crime and education. We happen to not only agree with him, but would add (and have extensively covered the fact) that New Mexico’s roads are falling apart, medical providers are in scarce supply, and that the Legislature and Gov. have failed to effectively use New Mexico’s massive oil and gas largesse in recent years to address these and other issues.

Well, New Mexico’s Economic Development Department responded with their own “campaign.” They are mock ups and they attempt to respond to the billboards. You can see several of them by scrolling through the Department’s Twitter feed. We’ll take several of them on here as of the afternoon of Friday, 10/10/2025.

  1. NM has the 2nd largest sovereign wealth fund. Yes, this is true thanks to oil and gas. Why can’t we return money to New Mexico people and businesses in the form of tax cuts rather than government keeping all this money? New Mexico should be in great shape, but it is not.
  2. NM is #1 in Family income growth.  We had an awful time confirming this data point because the EDD doesn’t provide a direct citation. One year of good data does not mean much. According to the Census Bureau New Mexico is the poorest state in the nation and nothing dramatic has improved during the nearly 8 years of Gov. MLG’s reign.
  3. NM is first state w/ free child care and free college. So what? Has this led to higher incomes, improved outcomes for students/children? Are people and businesses moving to New Mexico for this? (the answer is no). It is time to judge New Mexico policies by their outputs, not their inputs in the form of more money).
  4. NM is #1 in R&D spend intensity and PhD’s: Congratulations, we have two national nuclear laboratories thanks to historical accidents and federal taxpayers. The Labs are important to New Mexico, but haven’t gotten the State’s crime rate under control or improved educational outcomes overall.

The best quote comes from the man behind the billboards (keep an eye out for an upcoming podcast with him):

While I applauded everything positive New Mexico does to improve childcare and college tuition- the fact remains that 80% of eighth grader cannot read or do math at their grade level. And overall, our national ranking in education is Last Place— KRQE Facebook page shows over 3,000 likes and 1,000 heartfelt positive comments stating that we need to first admit that we have enormous problems so we can work together to solve them.

How did your legislators vote during New Mexico’s recent special session?
10.09.2025

It’s not “normal.” In fact, this was an “extra special” session of New Mexico’s Legislature. The Governor called it because she wanted to keep subsidies flowing to core political constituencies and keep New Mexicans dependent on government. She and the Legislature dominated by her fellow Democrats have had ample opportunities (including the special) to reform the State’s failing health care system and improve/diversify our economy, but she and many legislators in her party remain steadfastly opposed.

The Rio Grande Foundation didn’t just work at the Roundhouse this session, we also tracked the votes in our Freedom Index. You can find the votes for YOUR legislators and those of the rest of the Legislature here.

MLG’s strange/hypocritical approach to nuclear energy
10.09.2025

Nuclear energy is having a bit of a resurgence right now for obvious reasons. It is widely seen (by many on all sides of the political debate) as the only source of electricity that is: steady, zero-carbon, and can be implemented at a reasonable cost. Conservatives like it because unlike wind and solar it is steady and takes up less space than wind farms and solar fields while some (not all) environmentalists are willing to admit that wind and solar can’t fulfill our energy needs.

Which leads us to three developments in nuclear pertaining to New Mexico and Gov. MLG.

    1. Recently the Gov. touted a $1 billion investment from a company called Pacific Fusion which is planning to build a research and manufacturing facility in Albuquerque. We have concerns about the subsidies which include $9 million in State of New Mexico LEDA funds and $776.6 million in Industrial Revenue Bonds. There are also MANY reasons to be concerned about the viability of fusion as a technology which has not been implemented anywhere in the world. 
    2. The Gov.’s “Energy Transition Act” passed in 2019 does  include nuclear as a “zero carbon fuel” but focuses on wind and solar, not nuclear which is considered “non-renewable.” 
    3. MLG just announced that she has “successfully” chased Holtec away from building a potential nuclear storage facility in Southeastern New Mexico. Had Holtec built its facilities here New Mexico would have been the beneficiary of hundreds of jobs and hundreds of million of dollars of economic benefits, without state and local subsidies.

 

 

Tipping Point NM episode 749: Special Session Results, Federal Shutdown, APS $350 million Bond Ask and more
10.08.2025

On this week’s Tipping Point NM Paul and Wally discuss:

What happened during the special session?

The federal budget shutdown and NM’s recent special session are connected in some pretty profound ways.

APS is asking for a $350 million bond.

New Mexico resident puts up billboards discussing New Mexico’s problems.

Fusion company plans to invest $1 billion in New Mexico research and manufacturing facility.

AFT union attempts to destroy popular New Mexico business for unrelated political stance
10.08.2025

Recently, the New Mexico Legislature in a special session DID NOT address the existence of ICE facilities in three New Mexico counties. Apparently there are enough Democrats who wish these facilities or at least the jobs and tax revenues they provide to continue. But, the Albuquerque Federation of Teachers union in the post below not only made their position clear but is attempting to harm the McCall’s Pumpkin Patch because one of the owners also serves on the Torrance County Commission and has supported allowing ICE to continue working in his County.

Whatever your views on ICE or immigration may be, this is one of many examples of why government employee unions shouldn’t exist. They don’t care about representing teachers and their interests. They never polled their member on this issue. This is a political position taken by the union bosses that could do real harm to a tax paying, hiring business here in New Mexico. On the flip side it is a great example of why the US Supreme Court’s Janus vs. AFSCME decision which prohibited the forced collection of dues and fees by government employee unions remains such an important protection of workers’ First Amendment rights.

 

Update and fact check on child poverty in New Mexico
10.08.2025

New Mexico’s Tax and Revenue Department just released new data on child poverty rates in New Mexico. The press release highlights poverty reductions in New Mexico in both the “supplemental (including government benefits)” and the “official (not including government benefits)” rates. This is a bit of good news and of course Gov. Lujan Grisham is VERY pleased with herself.

As we noted back in January, the Gov. had previously claimed more significant reductions in child poverty rates that were an attempt to conflate the two poverty rates and mislead New Mexicans and the media. This time around the data are accurately represented. Notably, as the release points out, “the national official poverty measure for children improved just 0.4% in the new survey, New Mexico reduced child poverty by 3.2%.” So, with an ongoing oil and gas boom that has generated unprecedented revenue for the State and the Permian Basin, New Mexico’s children are finally seeing some positive momentum in terms of poverty rates. New Mexico’s children remain the third most impoverished in the nation.

On the Supplemental side of things the release touts the fact that the difference between supplemental and official poverty rates is “the largest difference of any state — and an indication that recent initiatives have effectively moved thousands of New Mexico families out of poverty.”

New Mexico has expanded direct benefits to low- and moderate-income families, such as food and housing assistance, free college tuition, affordable health insurance
coverage, and expanded early childhood education in recent years. New Mexico’s tax code has been extensively revised since 2019 to become more progressive, benefitting low- and moderate-income families. Since 2019, the state has twice expanded its working families tax credit, created a targeted child income tax credit, expanded the low-income comprehensive tax rebate, reduced the statewide gross receipts tax for the first time in 40 years, and exempted most Social Security income from taxation.

Indeed, thanks to oil and gas surpluses New Mexico has had the money to enact positive tax reforms and reductions like the GRT rate reduction and reducing Social Security taxes for most people. The question is whether the panoply of government policy measures will have long-term positive impacts on New Mexico children or whether government dependency is a poor replacement for jobs and economic independence.

A recent report by New Mexico’s Legislative Finance Committee found that “To improve the state’s wages and thus its poverty rates, New Mexico will likely need to increase educational attainment, particularly for those at or near the poverty level. ”

 

 

Billboard campaign highlights New Mexico government failures
10.07.2025

KRQE Channel 13 did a story recently on one man’s billboard campaign which asks a question we ALL need to be asking. Here’s a hint: people need to stop voting for the same leftist policies that have gotten us to this point. As we have discussed on our podcast Tipping Point New Mexico, New Mexico is led by people who do not want the State to do better. They are happy the way things are and are unwilling to change because high crime, poor education, our young people leaving, and numerous other problems fit their political preferences.

Check out the full story here:

Albuquerque Public Schools asks for $350 million bond
10.06.2025

On this fall’s ballots in addition to votes for mayor, city council, and school board, local voters will be asked to decide on a $350 million bond for Albuquerque Public Schools. These bonds (another name for debt which is typically used to pay for construction and other infrastructure) usually pass, but I hope voters will consider whether the District really needs this year’s massive bond measure.

For starters, the student population at Albuquerque Public Schools (APS) continues to plummet. Student enrollment has dropped by more than 20,000 since 2016, going from approximately 85,336 in FY16 to an estimated 64,995 in FY25. Along with spending growth at the state level this decline in its student population has led to massive spending growth on a per-pupil basis which now sits at $35,384 per-pupil.

Demographers see no sudden increase in the number of young people attending school in New Mexico or APS specifically. That’s in part because birth rates nationwide are down and show no signs of reversing course anytime soon. There has been a particularly pronounced decline in the number of young people in New Mexico from 2020 to 2024. During that time frame New Mexico saw the 2nd-biggest decline among US states in its 0-18 demographic according to the Census Bureau.

And, of course, while APS has made some strides under the current superintendent Gabrielle Blakey in recent years, the District continues to struggle to provide academic results. This has led to an uptick in home schooling and the pursuit of other options for many families.

While we applaud the efforts being made by the Superintendent and School Board to turn APS around, it is high time for the District to get serious about consolidating and closing old and unneeded schools. After all, a 20 percent drop (with a further decline expected) should free up buildings and other infrastructure for repurposing at great savings to taxpayers.

One big-ticket item that will be added if the bond is passed is for a $40 million new special needs education facility on the West Side as well as a new career technical education training facility. Why not repurpose existing assets for these needs instead? Of course, the District is also planning to spend another $40 million worth of bond money to improve HVAC systems and put refrigerated air units in schools.

That’s not a bad idea, but why are we spending millions of dollars to add fancy new air conditioning units on half-empty schools? The same is true for security upgrades and numerous other items contained in this bond.

No doubt, closing schools isn’t always popular with certain parents, but that is why the entire community, not just APS parents, are being asked to vote on this bond. Whether you think APS is heading in the right direction overall or whether you think they have a long way to go and need more fundamental reform, the District will only act if voters (especially taxpayers) push them to do so.

This isn’t about harming students or preventing them from putting air conditioning in schools, it is about common sense stewardship of taxpayer dollars. Voters should be very skeptical of APS’s $350 million bond request.

 

 

Tipping Point NM episode 748: Policies to Increase Housing Stock and Affordability with Salim Furth
10.03.2025

On this week’s Tipping Point interview Paul talks housing policy with Salim Furth, Senior Research Fellow and Director of the Urbanity project at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. His research focuses on housing production and land use regulation. They discuss New Mexico’s housing shortage and what can be done about it. What policies can be enacted at New Mexico’s state and local government levels to increase the housing stock and housing affordability? Check out this critical conversation.

A look at the special session bills
10.02.2025

We knew going into it that the special session called by Michelle Lujan Grisham would be a spending spree at taxpayer expense and that the Democrats were not going to address important issues like the medical provider shortage or the dire state of our roads.

What DID happen during the special session? The Legislature passed and MLG will sign $161 million worth of spending. Most of the spending from the special session is contained in HB 1 which includes the following provisions:

  1. Appropriates $5.6 million to NPR and PBS with an additional $430 thousand for tribal and pueblo public TV/radio.
  2. Spends $45.9 million on various food stamp (SNAP) related programs:
  • $17.3 million to subsidize healthcare premiums relating to ObamaCare;
  • $7.9 million to the Regulation and Licensing Department to cover up a budget deficit;
  • $450 thousand for the CAMP program for college-bound migrant and seasonal farmworkers.
  • $30 million from the general fund to the appropriation contingency fund and transfers
  • $50 million from the general fund to the rural health care delivery fund.

Much of this is in response to federal actions including increased work requirements and limits on SNAP in the BBB, elimination of federal funding for PBS and NPR, and the expiration of certain “enhanced” subsidies under ObamaCare. Our friend health care expert Michael Cannon of Cato Institute said, “Democrats are particularly insistent on preserving subsidies that were pitched as a temporary COVID measure because they help hide the costs of Obamacare.”

 

Battles in Santa Fe, DC being fought over ObamaCare’s failures
10.02.2025

The law known colloquially as “ObamaCare” has been around for 15 years. Whatever you think of it, the fact is that ObamaCare expanded health care coverage through two primary mechanisms: Medicaid expansion and a raft of subsidies. The federal shutdown currently happening in Washington is primarily about the latter:

During the COVID pandemic the Biden Administration passed enhanced subsidies eliminated the income eligibility caps for those subsidies and also made them more generous for current recipients….The Congressional Budget Office estimates that it would cost $340 billion a year to continue those. Republicans oppose that.

On the flip side, letting the tax credits expire would result in about 1.6 million higher-income earners losing subsidies completely. Millions more would continue receiving a smaller subsidy and see their premiums rise as a result….

HB 2 is legislation being considered (and likely adopted due to Democrat control of New Mexico government) in New Mexico’s current special session that would put New Mexico government/taxpayers on the hook for those subsidies at a cost of $34 million annually.

The problem is that ObamaCare remains flawed. It expanded health care “coverage” without actually expanding “access.” It is based on a combination of unsustainable taxpayer subsidies for both the ACA plans and for Medicaid which is just an ineffective welfare program that hasn’t improved health outcomes (as New Mexico’s own Legislative Finance Committee recently noted).

The fix (of course) requires getting government out of the way of the doctor/patient relationship both in the office and in terms of the payment situation. But, Republicans in Washington have been unable to repeal and replace ObamaCare and New Mexico’s Democrats simply cannot and will not look outside the government for solutions. Here is one excellent article from Reason Magazine that outlines how ObamaCare’s myriad failures have led us to this. 

Tipping Point NM episode 747 Mayoral Poll, MLG on Bipartisanship, New Mexico Roads, Medical Malpractice, Medicaid and more
10.02.2025

Paul’s been on jury duty.

Mayoral polling is out for City of Albuquerque elections. 

MLG and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox talk “bipartisanship” on 60 Minutes.

61,000 jobs could be lost if NM doesn’t start improving its roads (but the Gov. couldn’t get her own party to support road issues on Special Session agenda).

MLG: trial attorneys would kill any compacts or medical malpractice reform (won’t put it on to special session).

NM’s Medicaid Malfeasance.

I have a word for NYC Mayor candidate via Albuquerque.

A look at Ken Miyagishima’s plans if elected Gov.

Guest column: 100 years of Democrat rule have killed New Mexico.

Opinion piece: In New Mexico, there’s money for everything but roads
10.01.2025

The following appeared in the Santa Fe New Mexican on September 27, 2025 (and other New Mexico papers).

New Mexico is facing an increasingly dire situation on its roads. A recent Albuquerque Journal story stated that “New Mexico faces a $471.6 million gap in funding for priority projects around the state.” A total of $5.6 billion is needed for road maintenance. Furthermore, the report noted “the percentage of acceptable roads in New Mexico has decreased in recent years, from 75% in 2011 to 69% in 2023.”

Deteriorating roads have real economic and safety implications. According to SourceNM, “deteriorating roads result in drivers paying an average of $2,074 annually, for vehicle maintenance, congestion and safety costs.” New Mexico has 1.74 deaths per 100 million miles driven, which is the third-highest fatality rate in the country.

Of course, New Mexico remains awash in money. It has $64 billion in its permanent funds. Some of that money should be dedicated to road expansion and maintenance. New Mexico also has a $500 million general fund budget surplus this year and has had billions of dollars in annual surpluses in the recent past as state spending skyrocketed 70% under this governor. Clearly, roads were not a priority during the recent boom years.

Instead of pledging to use some of the plentiful existing money available to them on roads, Sen. Antonio “Moe” Maestas, D-Albuquerque, told the Journal, “It’s been a “failure of government” not to gradually increase the gas tax rate over the past 30 years.” We disagree.

New Mexicans should not be forced to pay higher taxes to fund something as basic as road maintenance when the state is flush with cash. Before even considering raising taxes, here are a few ideas to improve our roads without raising regressive taxes on average New Mexicans.

  • Free up some of the unspent $7.2 billion in unspent capital outlay money that is typically used for “pork” projects for roads.
  • Make electric vehicle owners pay a fee for road maintenance (they currently do not).
  • Repeal New Mexico’s “mini” Davis-Bacon law that allows unions rather than market forces to set construction wages.
  • Tax gas “at the rack” to capture gas taxes on tribal lands (they currently do not remit state gas tax).

These are some simple ways to either generate more money for road repairs or to drive costs down. We are open to others but remain implacably opposed to raising the gas tax until unless a few of these other efforts have been undertaken.

Clearly, roads are not a top priority for either the Legislature or the governor. What is? The governor recently outlined plans to spend an estimated $3 million annually to fund Planned Parenthood. She also has allocated $20 million in capital outlay in recent years for multiple abortion clinics designed to serve people from out of state.

Of course, there is also the new “free child care” program the governor just outlined as well. The state is already spending $463 million each year on “free” child care for those making up to 400% of the federal poverty level (more than $100,000 for a family of three). Expanding the program to those with even higher salaries will cost another $120 million with an additional one-time capital expenditure of $20 million.

The debacle over roads is on par with the approach Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has taken from day one: Allocate resources to growing state government and placating political allies while letting core functions of government suffer. It’s nothing new, but in New Mexico it is shocking how unwilling voters have been to hold Democratic politicians accountable for these and other policy failures.

Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation. The Rio Grande Foundation is an independent, tax-exempt research and educational organization.

Albuquerque Mayoral Poll is actually good news
09.29.2025

If you’re a politician looking for a third consecutive term in office and you are the first choice for only 29% of the electorate, that isn’t good news. That’s especially true in this fall’s election for mayor of Albuquerque. Yes, it’s a 7 person race with 5 “common sense” moderates or conservatives and 2 “hard-core progressives” (Uballez and Keller). Combined, the progressives are the first choice of 35% of the electorate.

Republican former sheriff Darren White is currently the preference of 16% of the electorate while Councilor Louie Sanchez receives support from 6%.

As we’ve said all along, the deciding vote will be the runoff. Of course, you need to vote for your preferred candidate in the initial election on November 4, but the runoff is likely to be between Mayor Keller and someone else which means that that “someone else” will have to consolidate as much of the 65% non-Keller, non Uballez vote as possible.

It won’t be easy and turnout especially in the runoff will be absolutely critical, but 65% of voters polled have seen 8 years of Keller and their first choice is NOT a progressive.

MLG touts bipartisanship with Utah’s Spencer Cox but won’t share Special Session agenda w/ GOP
09.28.2025

On the newsmagazine show 60 Minutes (and at Notre Dame recently) Democrat Gov. Lujan Grisham and Utah’s Republican Gov. Spencer Cox tout bipartisanship. We certainly agree that rhetoric has become too heated in this country and we wish the parties would work together in support of individual freedom and protecting our constitutional liberties, but it is hard to stomach the idea of MLG as some kind of champion of working together on a bipartisan basis.

Of course this is yet another failure of the national media which clearly knows nothing about New Mexico and doesn’t take the time to do even basic research about what happens here.

For example: Check out this article about the special session of the Legislature which kicks off on Wednesday:

Republican lawmakers, who asked the governor Sept. 15 to share the details of her proposals in black and white, say they still haven’t received the legislative language either.

House Minority Leader Gail Armstrong of Magdalena expressed frustration over being excluded from seeing any legislative drafts ahead of the special session, despite repeated attempts.

“My takeaway is that apparently they don’t give a crap if we’re there or not there,” she said, adding Democrats appear to have the votes to get the measures to the governor’s desk.

From her high-handed approach to COVID, her attempt to overturn the 2nd amendment, and her calling her political opponents “lizard people” MLG’s “bipartisan” track record is uninspiring to say the least.

And then there is competence and success. The media don’t talk about that as much because millions of Americans continue to move from “blue” to “red” states. The difference between Utah (with a growing population, strong, diversified economy, and high performing education system) New Mexico could not contrast more dramatically with MLG’s track record of failure in New Mexico.

I realize the national media has its narrative and they don’t want to let pesky details get in the way of what they are trying to say, but as Paul Harvey would say, “Now you know the rest of the story.”

Complete incompetence in Santa Fe (roads edition) 61,000 New Mexico jobs at stake
09.26.2025

We have reported and written an opinion piece and discussed the sorry state of New Mexico’s roads on our podcast, not to mention rest areas and other infrastructure frequently in recent months. But, rather than dealing with the issue in the special legislative session (as with the medical provider shortage) she wants to push that off to the 30 day session which is coming in January. That session is ALSO going to be even more packed than usual.

The latest from Albuquerque Journal is that the State could lose up to 61,000 jobs if the road funding issue is not resolved.  As we have noted, however, the Gov. and Democrat-controlled Legislature have simply not prioritized roads. Simply put, that has caused the crisis. The following is from today’s article:

“NMDOT usually gets anywhere from $200 million to $300 million for new road construction, though only $65 million was allocated this year.” Our roads have been deteriorating and construction costs have been rising for years (while New Mexico has run massive budget surpluses) how can the Legislature and Gov. allocate a tiny fraction of what has been allocated in the past to roads? Remember, MLG is funding abortion clinics, “free” child care, “free” college, “free pre-K,” and is holding a special session to pump money into welfare programs like food stamps and Medicaid for able bodied adults and illegal immigrants, but again, can’t find the time to address roads?

“The funding deficit puts 61,000 construction and maintenance jobs at risk statewide,” said Danny Marquez of Algodones-based construction firm CA2 Testing.

 

 

 

New Mexico’s Medicaid Malfeasance
09.25.2025

As seen in the post from Gov. Lujan Grisham, she blames President Trump and Congress (naturally) for cuts to Medicaid and rising premiums. Instead, the Gov. should look in the mirror and at a bloated and deeply problematic Medicaid program administered by the State. Don’t believe us? Check out the latest Medicaid Accountability Report from the Legislative Finance Committee and the analysis below:

The following is a list of the Ten findings from the report:

1. Medicaid enrollment is down, but program spending is up

New Mexico serves 31,000 fewer Medicaid enrollees than in 2016, yet total spending has nearly doubled to $11 billion. Outcomes on quality, access, and network adequacy are flat or worse.

2. Billions in provider rate increases haven’t improved appointment availability

The state has invested at least $2.2 billion in provider rate adjustments over the last five years—including more than $1 billion for hospitals. The largest increases are scheduled for FY25, but secret shopper surveys show no improvement in appointment availability.

3. NM Medicaid rates are far above Medicare’s and those of neighboring states

New Mexico’s Medicaid rates are consistently higher than Medicare and border states—sometimes dramatically. For behavioral health, one code is reimbursed at $242/hour for family psychotherapy—50% above Medicare and up to 325% higher than Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma, or Utah. Physical health codes also run 7% to 186% higher than neighboring states, with outpatient visits reimbursed at nearly double Arizona and Utah rates.

4. Costs are rising, but health outcomes remain stagnant

Since FY21, behavioral health per-member costs jumped 97% and long-term services rose 49%, yet outcomes remain stagnant.

5. Cost of the Developmental Disabilities Waiver’s is headed toward $1B

The DD waiver costs per client ran up to 39% higher than projections in FY24. Total spending hit $773M vs. $733M projected, and growth trends show it is on track to become a billion-dollar program within the next budget cycles. A “super allocation” to clear waiting lists risks accelerating costs even faster.

6. Mixed Health Outcomes Despite Spending

  • Only 31% of behavioral health ER patients receive a 7-day follow-up, down 16% since 2022.
  • Diabetes management has improved somewhat, with poor control falling from 52% to 44%.

7. The Medicaid IT Project is bloated, delayed — and risky

The Medicaid Management Information System replacement has swelled from $221M to $832M and from 8 years to 14 years in duration, making it the largest single-agency IT project in state history. By completion, it could approach $1 billion—and still may not be compliant with future federal reporting requirements, putting both funding and accountability at risk.

8. The behavioral health workforce is shrinking

Between 2022 and 2024, New Mexico lost 1,082 prescribing and 427 non-prescribing behavioral health providers. Most counties saw declines.

9. Secret Shoppers find care is still hard to access

In 2025, patients needed 6–7 calls for a primary care appointment and 14 calls for behavioral health. Average waits were 21 days for primary care and 11 days for behavioral health—both longer than required standards.

10. NM’s Fraud recoveries are among the nation’s worst

New Mexico’s Medicaid Fraud Control Unit recovered just 2 cents per dollar spent, ranking second-to-last nationally. In FY24, 353 investigations yielded only five indictments and two convictions.

Thanks to former New Mexico Health Secretary Duke Rodriguez for his analysis.

Tipping Point NM Episode 746: Spaceport economic analysis and “free” childcare w/ NMSU economist Chris Erickson
09.25.2025

On this week’s interview Paul sits down with Professor Chris Erickson. Chris is an economics professor at New Mexico State University. Paul and Chris discuss (and debate) two big issues:
1) Chris’ economic impact study of Spaceport America which found that the Spaceport generated an impact of $240 million in 2024.

2) We discuss recent statements made by Erickson that Gov. Lujan Grisham’s “free” universal child care will have positive impacts on New Mexico’s economy.

We do conclude the conversation with a brief discussion of the Project Jupiter project which was recently approved for Southern New Mexico. You don’t want to miss this important conversation!

RGF in National Review: Take It from Albuquerque: Free Transit Is a Bad Idea
09.25.2025

The following appeared at National Review on September 25, 2025.

Zohran Mamdani should get the hint and scrap his proposal for New York City.

The cities of Albuquerque and New York don’t have a great deal in common. One is a densely packed East Coast metropolis, while the other is a relatively spread out (and much smaller) city in the American Southwest.

But they do have one thing in common: Politicians in both cities have bought into the idea of making buses “free” to riders. Of course, we know that there is no such thing as “free,” and the costs are ultimately borne by taxpayers. Free fares were implemented in Albuquerque, N.M., as a pilot program on January 1, 2022, and then made permanent in November of 2023. In New York City, the idea has been put forth by self-avowed socialist mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.

Free buses may seem like an innovative way to get more people to ride struggling transit systems, which have lost ridership for years, but New York can learn a lot from the failure of Albuquerque’s taxpayer-funded “free” bus program.

The program has led to major safety issues on city buses. The most obvious impact of letting people ride buses without paying so much as $1 (the previous fare in Albuquerque) has been that the city’s homeless population has flocked to the buses. With homeless people hopping aboard to just relax while riding or to stay out of heat, cold, or Albuquerque’s occasional rainstorms, the city’s buses have become rolling homeless shelters, and not only that.

In 2023 when the program was just getting started, Albuquerque media reported that the city’s “free” buses were being used as getaway vehicles for shoplifters. While there has not been much reporting on this topic since the initial stories, I have talked with numerous business owners who say it is still a problem. The addition of security guards on buses has undoubtedly caused criminals to think twice, but it has not solved the problem.

In 2023, former New Mexico Attorney General Hector Balderas, a Democrat, said, “I think that the no fee for riders seemed like a well-intentioned policy, but there must be safety requirements. In other words, you can’t just let everyone on the bus with stolen equipment.”

Around that time, Albuquerque police undertook a sting operation around shoplifting in Albuquerque called “Operation Sticky Fingers” and found that “ten of the 31 people arrested used a city bus,” which led the Albuquerque Journal to editorialize that “abuse of the city’s free bus fare program is now indisputable.” One city councilor cited a 25 percent increase in police calls at buses and bus stops since the pilot program went into effect. In addition to shoplifting, drugs are a problem on Albuquerque’s buses. Twelve of the 31 people arrested were reportedly found with drugs or paraphernalia on them, mostly related to fentanyl. The same is true with assaults and other physical safety challenges. A Transit Department spokeswoman said nine bus drivers who quit in 2022 cited the free fares program and concerns over safety. There were 86 vacant driver positions in December of 2022.

An attempt was made back then by some on the city council to require riders to acquire a free pass or show government ID to ride the bus. To date, such proposals have not been adopted because of free-bus advocates’ concerns over “equity.”

The lack of willing bus drivers led to demands for increased security on Albuquerque’s buses. That security doesn’t come cheap, and with local police departments struggling to hire officers, the issue is not simply a financial one.

As of July 2025, the city’s Transit Department was working to hire 25 new security guards. The plan is to ultimately bring that number up to 87. It says something that, during the state fair earlier this month, Albuquerque used a combination of private security guards and National Guard troops to assist with security on the buses.

So, have “free” buses led to a transit renaissance in Albuquerque as advocates would like to believe (and Mamdani believes will happen in New York)? It doesn’t seem so.

In 2019 before the Covid pandemic, Albuquerque bus ridership was just over 9 million passengers. That was down from the 10 million who rode city buses in 2016. After plummeting to 4.4 million in 2021, ridership rebounded to 7 million in 2024. That’s a far cry from peak ridership of less than a decade ago or even pre-pandemic.

Did the “free” buses lead to this slight rebound, or has ridership actually been hampered by safety issues on Albuquerque’s zero-fare buses? Again, it is difficult to say, but a drop from 9 million to 7 million represents a fall of 22 percent. It is hard to call that success.

Making New York’s buses “free” would likely create many of the same problems that we’ve seen in Albuquerque, despite the two cities’ manifest differences. There are many reasons to query Mamdani’s socialist approach to governance, but even transit users who might theoretically benefit from zero bus fares should be wary.

Paul J. Gessing is the president of the Rio Grande Foundation, a think tank based in Albuquerque, N.M., dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom, and individual responsibility. 

We received a few thoughtful responses to the National Review piece. They are posted below. If you can’t  read them you can open them in a new tab:

Guest column: 100 years of Democrat Rule Have Failed New Mexico
09.24.2025

The following is a guest column from Charles Sullivan. Sullivan is an Albuquerque resident and writes frequently about New Mexico politics and policy issues.

There are two taboo facts that New Mexico’s television stations and major newspapers almost never discuss. The first is that no state in the United States has had single- party Democratic rule at the state level longer than New Mexico. The second is that there is any connection between decades of single-party Democratic rule and the current state of affairs in New Mexico.

Here are a few examples of Democrat dominance since 1931.

State legislature: The last time Republicans held a majority in both houses of the N.M. Legislature at the same time was 1930.
N.M. Supreme Court. The last time Republicans held a majority on the N.M. Supreme Court was in the 1920s. Currently, all five justices on the Court are Democrats.
N.M. Court of Appeals: The N.M. Court of Appeals was created in 1966 and
has never had a Republican majority. Currently nine of the ten judges on the Court are Democrats.
Secretary of State: Republicans have held the position for 4 years since 1931. Attorney General. Republicans have held the post for 4 years since 1931.

And what has nearly 100 years of single-party Democratic rule brought New Mexico? Here are a few examples.

The nation’s worst ranked K-12 public school system, even worse than the deplorable public schools of Washington, D.C.

A state where 46% of its residents over 16 years of age are functional illiterates.
The state with both the highest violent crime per capita and the highest property crime per capita in the nation.
A state with the highest percentage of welfare recipients of any state.
A state with the second highest poverty rate of any state.
A state with anemic population growth compared to its neighbors. In the 1930 census, neighboring AZ had 12,000 more residents than NM. Today, AZ’s population is 5,552,000 larger.
A state with the nation’s 4th highest per capita suicide rate despite having great weather.
A state with one of the highest Covid death rates per 100,000 in the country despite a nearly totalitarian lockdown by the ruling party.

What are we to make of these stunning facts about New Mexico? Would it not be logical for the Republican Party of New Mexico to be screaming at the top of its lungs, “Good God, look at what the Democrats have done to the state. They’ve had complete control for nearly 100 years and the state is a shambles. Why do you keep voting for these people and what hope is there for fundamental change if they keep running the state?”

And yet, the response from the Republican Party has been crickets. I understand, for them it is embarrassing to lose to a group (Democrats) who have driven this state into a ditch. I’ve lived in the state for nearly 50 years and have never heard the Republican Party or a state-wide Republican Party candidate discuss Democrat Party single party rule for most of the last 100 years. Is it stupidity? Lack of cojones? A combination of both? So, yes, the Republican Party of New Mexico is the nation’s most incompetent.

Thousands of New Mexicans are simply unaware of the historical fact that the state has had single party Democrat rule for most of the last 100 years. That’s because of the nearly total news blackout on the subject by most of New Mexico’s news media, and the Republican Party’s silence on the subject. If more people knew this fact, it could make a big difference.

The Republican Party of New Mexico needs a fighter like Lee Atwater to turn it around. Until it gets one, it will probably remain the junior varsity team.

MLG admits: trial attorneys in her party will kill needed health care compacts
09.24.2025

In New Mexico governors come and go but the Legislature remains a problem. Even Gov. Lujan Grisham agrees that medical provider compacts are a necessary step (one of several) to addressing New Mexico’s medical provider shortage. But trial attorneys who represent one of the largest and most powerful interest groups within her party oppose them. So, they won’t be on the agenda for the special session and (barring a miraculous deal or change of heart), they aren’t going to get much traction in the 30-day session.

As MLG said, “I worry there are so many leaders in the Senate that it gets caught there,” (referring to the compacts). While there is $117 million in annual federal funding at stake (the state might miss out on without the compacts) and the compacts have been a topic of discussion in Santa Fe since 2019, Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth remains opposed (along with other trial attorneys in his own party). Wirth even claimed that advocates for the compacts and federal pro-compact policies are “holding health care hostage” when it is he and his fellow legislative Democrats who are holding the health and well being of New Mexicans hostage.

Notably, check out this awful opinion piece from the new head of the trial-attorney (anti compact) New Mexico Safety Over Profits Johana Bencomo. She is a sitting Democrat city councilor in Las Cruces. While we obviously disagree with her and the organization she represents her op-ed is full of platitudes and attacks on corporations, insurance companies, and private equity firms. She doesn’t actually explain why they are problematic or what solutions might improve things. Considering her group NMSOP is funded by and only cares for the interests of trial attorneys it is not surprising she has no solutions for the medical provider shortage, but it is telling that the organization doesn’t feel the need to offer compromises or alternatives, just implacable opposition.

Finally, in New Mexico governors are term limited. Legislators are not. Term limits should absolutely be implemented in New Mexico, but won’t be as long as Democrats maintain control. It is up to the voters to stand up to Peter Wirth and the trial attorneys who control the Democratic Party.

A look at Ken Miyagishima’s plans if elected Gov.
09.23.2025

Last week we looked at Sam Bregman’s policy agenda if elected governor of New Mexico. We noted Deb Haaland’s lack of a plan. Here is Ken Miyagishima’s. Ken was the Mayor of Las Cruces most recently where he was a voice of moderation (relative to MLG) on COVID. 

  1. Miyagishima’s first item of interest is the medical provider shortage. Unlike Bregman he offers full-throated support for reforming New Mexico’s medical malpractice laws. He also calls for GRT reform and expanded residencies and incentives for doctors (like loan forgiveness).  He addresses Medicaid in a separate policy area and has some interesting ideas for improving efficiency in Medicaid
  2. Of serious concern is his plans related to housing which involve the state of New Mexico getting involved in some kind of housing scheme. While details are limited we have serious concerns about this part of Miyagishima’s plans.
  3. His education plans leave a great deal to be desired as well. There is no choice or even Mississippi Model here, just pay hikes for teachers and “free” tuition for masters degrees in the education field. He DOES offer an olive branch to rural districts on the 4-day vs 5-day school week issue.
  4. In terms of the economy he has a few nice ideas including seemingly addressing the Energy Transition Act and bringing traditional sources of energy back into New Mexico’s electricity generating portfolio. That’s good news. Also, he explicitly calls out regulations and looking at reducing regulatory burdens.
  5. One area of serious concern is on economic security for seniors. He proposes an ambitious plan of setting aside $1 billion each year to establish a guaranteed annuity for residents aged 65 and older who face reductions in their Social Security benefits. Sadly, no mention of eliminating the tax on Social Security is discussed.
  6. Interestingly, Miyagishima offers a fairly robust defense of the 2nd amendment and gun rights including increased school security.

Overall there are several things to like and a lot that we’d like to see changed in Miyagishima’s platform.  We have major concerns about his government housing scheme and would like to see more reform/accountability in his education plan as well as on taxes.

New Mexico’s medical provider shortage impacting military installations
09.22.2025

The Rio Grande Foundation has done tremendous work on New Mexico’s medical provider shortage. It is severe and there are numerous simple solutions that the Legislature and Gov. could and should embrace. Now, the Albuquerque Journal reported this weekend, the medical provider shortage is impacting the State’s ability to attract even members of the military.

A few data points from the piece: At New Mexico’s three Air Force bases — Kirtland in Albuquerque, Cannon near Clovis and Holloman outside of Alamogordo — the lack of specialty medical care is a major deterrent to service members who are assigned there, U.S. Air Force officials said.

One in five airmen assigned to a base in New Mexico must turn down the post because the medical care is not sufficient for a member of their family

Cannon, Kirtland and Holloman rank among the top 17 Air Force bases for medical rejection. The rest of the list is made up mostly of remote locations in less-populous states like North Dakota and Montana.

In other words, a bunch of relatively young, by definition healthy, and active people are unwilling to come to New Mexico due to the medical provider shortage. When will this be a big enough issue for MLG and the Legislature to address?