Errors of Enchantment

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The ongoing decline in Rail Runner ridership — warning signs for Mayor Berry’s ART?

07.21.2016

The latest ridership numbers are out for the Rail Runner and the numbers look terrible. According to the Albuquerque Journal, ridership dropped an astonishing 11 percent over the past year. Worse, that number has plummeted by 40 percent since its peak. See the charts below:

RailRunnerRidership

Operators blame low gas prices and the bad economy, two interrelated issues that could be blamed for just about everything happening in New Mexico these days. The reality is that new transit projects almost always over-promise and under-deliver (a refrain all-too-common in government generally)

Worse, low ridership is only going to mean greater hemorrhaging of taxpayer dollars on every trip as trains continue to run (costing the same amount, but fare-box collections decline). Obviously, Bill Richardson is the first person to blame, but with taxpayers in the Albuquerque Metro still smarting from one mass-transit boondoggle, why is Mayor Berry pushing a second boondoggle-in-the-making known as Albuquerque Rapid Transit?

Is Mayor Berry really trying to emulate Bill Richardson?

Gary Johnson’s Spending Record as Compared to his Republican Contemporaries

07.20.2016
ALBUQUERQUE — Is former New Mexico governor and Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson a fiscal conservative? Despite his having vetoed upwards of 700 bills – more than any governor in the nation at the time – a National Review columnist, James Spiller argued that Johnson is “not conservative and not even all that libertarian” based largely on Johnson’s fiscal record which he further labels “big-government.”

Rio Grande Foundation policy analyst Tristan Goodwin answers this question in his new policy brief, “How Fiscally Conservative? Gary Johnson’s Spending Record vs. his Republican Contemporaries.” Rather than using arbitrary data points to formulate his answer, Goodwin examines the spending records of Johnson’s Republican contemporaries, especially those “big names” or governors who ran for higher office.

Goodwin first acknowledges the reality that every governor, like every president, faces different pressures and realities from their legislatures. Johnson’s Legislature was dominated 60-40% by Democrats during his time in office.

As seen in the chart below, Johnson was not by himself the most frugal Republican of the era (Engler and future two-time presidential candidate Mike Huckabee were more restrained), but Johnson was far more conservative than future Republican President George W. Bush.
Johnson Spending
Ultimately, noted Goodwin, while hard-core Libertarians might rather see smaller numbers or even spending cuts next to their standard-bearer’s name, the much-larger group of disaffected, fiscally-conservative Republican voters searching for an alternative to Donald Trump can comfortably support Gary Johnson.

Sen. Ivey-Soto misses the boat on charter schools

07.20.2016

There’s a saying in the field of data “Garbage in, garbage out.” In other words, if you use bad data, you’ll get bad information that can lead to bad decisions. Take Sen. Ivey-Soto’s musings about a moratorium on new charter schools based on an LFC report which claims that charters “receive more funding per-pupil than traditional public schools.” You can read the LFC Report here.

This deeply-flawed LFC report has been debunked repeatedly , including by the Albuquerque Journal’s editorial board.

Another study done by the University of Arkansas, found that while New Mexico’s charters are indeed relatively well-funded as compared to charters in other states faced a “weighted disparity amount of only $365 per pupil or 3.4 percent favoring districts.”

The Arkansas report went on to say that, “New Mexico’s funding mechanism dates back decades but began with structural efficacy to achieve funding equity. The state continues to successfully distribute funding on a near-equitable basis year after year.”

There is no doubt that New Mexico faces real budget problems. But innovative approaches in Santa Fe COULD result in greater choice and better outcomes at a net savings to taxpayers. Unfortunately, some would rather make rash decisions based on faulty information.

All this means that New Mexico kids will continue to fall behind unless major structural changes are made to their state’s failing educational system:

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Deregulation improves quality and choice: the example of beer

07.19.2016

I love this chart from Mark Perry of the American Enterprise Institute:

beer

It is hard to believe that America saw its lowest number of breweries less than 40 years ago and is now at its high point numerically. Of course, it’s worth  noting that back in the 1970s, Democrats like Jimmy Carter supported deregulation. 

New Mexico has certainly played a role in the brewery boom thanks in part to tax reductions a few years back.  It IS possible to create new jobs and a diverse array of innovative, high-quality products. There is nothing special about beer that defies the rules of economics.

Unfortunately, it seems like politicians need to constantly be reminded of these basic facts. A few years ago the Rio Grande Foundation provided a list of deregulation ideas. A few have even been adopted, but so much more needs to be done.

 

Reality is Facebook data center won’t be 100% “renewable”

07.18.2016

According to news reports, Facebook is considering both Utah and New Mexico as potential locations for a new data center. Other news reports indicate that the center would create 200 to 300 construction jobs for seven years and between 30 and 50 full-time jobs at the data center in its initial phases.

“Natural-disaster-proof” New Mexico would indeed be an ideal place for Facebook and other companies to locate their data centers.

However, there is always a “catch.” According to the news article linked to at the beginning of the article, “the data center’s electricity energy needs would be served 100 percent by renewable energy.” This is suspicious on its face because data centers need massive quantities of cheap and very reliable electricity. Data centers can’t shut down when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind fails to blow. So, what gives?

According to Paul Chesser at the National Legal and Policy Center:

Companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook have built giant data facilities in North Carolina. They get to (cheaply) use the benefits of the state’s nuclear-, coal- and natural gas-powered electricity, but cloaking it in the guise of a rigged scheme to make them look like they are “green.” And they cash in!

Travis Fisher at the Institute for Energy Research reiterated Chesser’s point and said the following of “100%  renewable” claims:

Many companies such as Apple and Google claim that they get their electricity from 100 percent renewable sources. At best, this claim is misleading and deceptive. We cannot find a single instance of a large company actually going “100 percent renewable.” The reality is that as long as these companies are connected to the electric grid, they still get the vast majority of their electricity from conventional sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear power, and are therefore not 100 percent renewable.

We at the Rio Grande Foundation don’t feel the same pressures from the “green” lobby as do Facebook and other tech companies. We certainly understand their desire to be seen as “green” regardless of their massive electricity use. But we do have concerns that the company’s efforts to make themselves look environmentally-friendly will make our electricity grid less stable while raising costs for other rate-payers. This is true whether or not Facebook chooses Utah or New Mexico.

IER-Grid-Project-Electricity-Generation-2013

 

ART’s electric buses: worse for the environment and will require costly additional facilities

07.15.2016

Dowd Muska provided some additional information about how the Berry Administration’s move to electric buses for their ART system is a bad idea that will cost more than traditional diesel buses, but wait…there’s even more bad news!

According to Conservation which is published by University of Washington:, electric buses are actually worse for the environment than their diesel counterparts:

A recent life cycle assessment (LCA) compared battery-powered electric buses to diesel-powered (internal combustion engine) mass transit buses. (1) It revealed that diesel buses have smaller environmental impacts in eight of the 11 impact categories studied. Diesel buses fare better in important environmental categories such as global warming potential (GWP; i.e., carbon footprint), ozone depletion potential, and carcinogens released into the environment. The battery-powered bus fared better only with respect to aquatic eutrophication, land acidification, and the release of non-carcinogens such as mercury, cyanide, and nitrates.

Of course, ABQ RIDE now faces a slew of additional costs (to be born by Albuquerque taxpayers) has no tools, no equipment, no training or knowledge by which the electric buses could be integrated into the system without huge “Support Facility” investment.

Just the electric bus recharging facilities would be a major expense, and would require new lines, terminals, electric service upgrades, and a host of other tools needed to maintain electric buses. Of course, since the rest of the system will remain intact, there will be few cost savings.

BYD Lancaster (Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times)

Can ART Get Worse? Yes. Yes, It Can.

07.13.2016

art_not_cool

It’s bad enough that “Albuquerque Rapid Transit” will cripple the economic viability of businesses along historic Route 66, induce traffic congestion, (likely) run well over budget, and do zilch to attract and retain Millennial-generation homesteaders.

Now, ART is going electric. According to the Albuquerque Journal, the city is poised to become the first “in the country to operate a fleet of 60-foot-long electric buses. It also would give the city’s bus rapid transit system a chance to earn a gold environmental rating; no other rapid ride transportation system in the U.S. is gold-rated.”

It’s worth noting that Albuquerque has some of the cleanest air in the country, and hardly needs the minuscule emission reductions that would result from electric buses. But of greater concern is the price tag. The buses will cost $7 million more than comparable diesel models. But the Duke City’s mayor, claiming to be “a fiscal conservative,” claims that operating expenses will result in a net lifetime savings of $14 million. If you buy that justification … you haven’t been paying close attention to ART supporters’ tenuous connection to fiscal reality.

Albuquerque’s experiencing a crime wave. Downtown is a ghost town. The metro region has yet to regain all the jobs it lost in the Great Recession. The police department is, to be charitable, troubled. And taxes keep going up.

Maybe the city’s “leaders” should have other priorities than an electrically powered transit project that isn’t wanted, and can’t work?

Sens. Udall and Heinrich Join Anti-Free Speech “Web of Denial” #webofdenial

07.12.2016

ALBUQUERQUE — Yesterday on the floor of the US Senate, New Mexico’s senators and several of their colleagues attacked the free speech rights of free market and conservative organizations. Heinrich, Udall, and their Senate colleagues believe that the “science is settled” on climate change and are attempting to intimidate, shut down, and ultimately criminalize those making arguments against using the full force of government to solve the supposed “climate crisis.”

Said Rio Grande Foundation president Paul Gessing of the Senators’ efforts, “We at the Rio Grande Foundation (and many of the organizations attacked by the Senators) simply oppose massive government programs to address the supposed threat of ‘climate change.’ We have repeatedly pointed out that US carbon emissions have dropped in recent years due to market forces such as the boom in fracking and natural gas production. Command-and-control government solutions are unnecessary especially when the market is working.”

Notably, the free market Cato Institute (the Rio Grande Foundation has hosted Cato’s climate expert Pat Michaels) accepts the so-called “consensus” on global warming. A statement on Cato’s website reads, in part:

Global warming is indeed real, and human activity has been a contributor since 1975. But global warming is also a very complicated and difficult issue that can provoke very unwise policy in response to political pressure.

“Nonetheless,” noted Gessing, “The Cato Institute was among the organizations specifically criticized by the left-wing group of anti-speech US senators. For Heinrich, Udall, and their colleagues it’s not about the science; it’s about imposing a political agenda of massively-expanded government regulation and increased taxes”

In concluding, Gessing noted, “Sens. Udall and Heinrich represent one of America’s most energy-dependent and energy-rich states. One-third of New Mexico’s budget is directly supported by oil and gas while The Land of Enchantment is also a leading producer of coal and has in the past been a leading source of uranium. Carbon-free nuclear is unfortunately not among the ‘solutions’ under consideration by the mainstream climate-change lobby. They’d rather attack their opponents’ free speech rights instead.”

 

 

Hollywood: Leaving Louisiana

07.12.2016

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With New Mexico’s media continuing to slavishly repeat spin about film and television production in the Land of Enchantment, the Associated Press has issued an instructive story on how studios play states for suckers:

Louisiana’s once-booming film industry — dubbed “Hollywood South” — was off by as much as 90 percent this past year, according to the Louisiana Film Entertainment Association. The drop is all attributed to the state’s decision to wind down its generous incentives last July, scaring off movie makers.

Louisiana has handed a whopping $1.4 billion to productions — revenue it wishes it still had, given the state’s budget woes.

Hollywood’s money men aren’t stupid. Their approach to what California calls “runaway productions” is simple: Grab the cash for as long as you can, and hit the road when there’s a better offer. There is zero interest in building sustainable entertainment workforces and infrastructure — in New Mexico, or anywhere else. Studios exist to make profits, and states’ economic-development dreams are irrelevant. It’s all about the bottom line.

But rest assured, New Mexico will stick with its subsidization strategy. Probably no public policy in the Land of Enchantment enjoys more bipartisan support. And for the record, in recent years, job growth in New Mexico’s film-and-television “industry” has been nonexistent. In 2015, there were fewer employees than in 2012:

hollywood

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

New cell phone app provides listeners another way to listen to RGF!

07.12.2016

The Rio Grande Foundation has a weekly radio show “Tipping Point New Mexico” on “The Rock of Talk” 1600 KIVA. You can listen to last week’s episode by clicking below:

Now, if you can’t tune in live, you can listen to archived editions of “Tipping Point” at your computer or on the new cell phone app developed at the “Rock of Talk.” That means, wherever you are, if you have your phone, you can listen to both new and archived editions of “Tipping Point New Mexico.”

This is another great way for anyone who wants to hear our great interviews and information about the state of New Mexico’s economy and its political situation to do so. I’ve downloaded the app, you and your friends should too!

Study: NM’s Renewable Energy Mandate Stifles Job Creation and Growth: Economist predicts 3,500 potential jobs eliminated

07.11.2016

ALBUQUERQUE — Today, the Rio Grande Foundation released a new study authored by its president Paul Gessing based on research provided by energy expert Dr. Timothy Considine of the University of Wyoming.

The study which analyzed the impact of New Mexico’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) finds that the law will decrease New Mexico’s economic growth by $444 million and cost the economy 3,500 jobs by 2020.

The study, “New Mexico’s Renewable Portfolio Standard: An Evaluation of its Impact on the State Economy,” details the impact of RPS on electricity prices, job creation, and economic output through 2040. The study serves as a reminder that despite modest benefits of RPS, state lawmakers cannot ignore the economic implications for their constituents.

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) exist in 29 states and the District of Columbia, requiring that a percentage of electricity be generated by wind, solar, and other forms of renewable energy in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The study accounts for not only the costs of the law but also the benefits. This year, for example, Dr. Considine finds that New Mexico’s RPS reduces carbon dioxide emissions by more than 4 million tons, infuses $178 million into the state economy, and is responsible for 2,500 new jobs. Those benefits, however, are dramatically-outweighed by its costs.

Additional findings for the Land of Enchantment:

  • By 2020, RPS policies will increase New Mexico electricity costs by almost $206 million annually.
  • The study finds that electricity prices will jump by 7 percent that year alone.

Said Rio Grande Foundation president Paul Gessing.“New Mexico’s economy faces serious challenges. While so-called ‘renewables’ may be part of the solution, mandating them under state law does much more harm than good.”

To view Gessing’s brief, click Here. To read Considine’s entire study,  click HERE. To schedule an interviewcontact Rio Grande Foundation at 505-264-6090 or info@riograndefoundation.org.

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When “Free to Choose,” why do so many people choose Texas?

07.08.2016

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rgf_mf1In celebration of Milton Friedman Day 2016, the Rio Grande Foundation is hosting a discussion of Texas’ economy, what makes it so dynamic, and what New Mexico can do to catch up and, surpass it at some point in the future.

Our speaker will be Bill Peacock, Director of the Center for Economic Freedom, with the Texas Public Policy Foundation. The chart below is just one of many pieces of economic data pointing to Texas as an economic powerhouse.

What specific policies and cultural traits allow Texas to be such a magnet for jobs and economic growth? What can New Mexico learn from Texas? What threats to its economic success does Texas face?

rgf_mf2

  • Where: UNM Law School, Room 2401, located at 1117 Stanford Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87106 (see map below).
  • When: Thursday, July 28, 2016, 6:00pm to 7:30pm.
  • Cost: Event is free and open to the public, please register using the registration form. It’s quick and it’s free!

In addition to hearing why so many people are “voting with their feet” by moving to Texas, we will celebrate the legacy of Dr. Milton Friedman by serving birthday cake.

Bill Peacock’s research focuses on economic freedom and growth, property rights, civil justice, and regulatory issues.

Bill has extensive experience in Texas government and policy on a variety of issues, including economic and regulatory policy, natural resources, public finance, and public education. His work has focused on identifying and reducing the harmful effects of regulations on the economy, businesses, and consumers.

Prior to joining the Foundation, Bill served as the Deputy Commissioner for Coastal Resources for Commissioner Jerry Patterson at the Texas General Land Office. Before he worked at the GLO, Bill was a legislative and media consultant, working with groups like Citizens for a Sound Economy and Putting Children First. He also served as the Deputy Assistant Commissioner for Intergovernmental Affairs for Commissioner Rick Perry at the Texas Department of Agriculture and as a legislative aide to Rep. John Culberson in the Texas House of Representatives. Bill began his career in state policy in 1989 in the Texas Senate as the analyst for public education and school finance for the Senate Committee on Education.

Bill has a B.A. in History from the University of Northern Colorado and a M.B.A. with an emphasis in public finance from the University of Houston.

Click here to register.

UNM School of Law

The University of New Mexico School of Law is the law school of the University of New Mexico, located on the North Campus off Stanford Drive between Lomas Blvd. and Indian School Rd. in Albuquerque.

UNM Law School

1117 Stanford Dr. NE
Room 2401
Albuquerque
NM
87106
USA
Map and Directions

Website: http://lawschool.unm.edu/
Phone: 505-277-8612

Price: $0.00

Start Time: 6:00 pm
End Time: 7:30 pm


Date:

July 28, 2016

Address:
UNM School of Law
1117 Stanford Dr. NE
Room 2401
Albuquerque, NM
87106
USA
Map and Directions

Click here to register.

In Just Three Short Decades…

07.08.2016

Patricia “Patty” French, the board chair of the Public Employees Retirement Association, had an … interesting piece in New Mexico Political Report this week. Thanks to reforms adopted in 2013, the official beamed, PERA is “projected to meet our goal of being 100% funded by 2043.”

Feeling better about the Land of Enchantment’s long-term fiscal solvency now? Probably not. But there’s reason for more worry. As the Pew Charitable Trusts recently documented, New Mexico’s total unfunded liabilities — pensions and healthcare for government workers, as well as bonded debt — are quite disturbing. When ranked according to share of state personal income, New Mexico is sixth from the bottom:

pera

Give French her due. There’s no question that 2013’s pension-reform reform package was a decent first step. Among other things, it reduced cost-of-living (COLA) adjustments from 3 percent to 2 percent for most beneficiaries, delayed COLA eligibility, increased employee contributions, and lengthened the vesting period.

But the ultimate answer to New Mexico’s mammoth pension liability remains a full transfer of all new employees to a defined-contribution system. A flexible, modern approach to retirement income would be good for workers and taxpayers alike. Rest assured, recognizing the power of state-employee unions, legislators’ desire to shift to a 401(k) system is low.

Municipal Mission Creep in Las Cruces

07.07.2016

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Whatever one’s views on the right to bear arms, gun policy is set at the state and national levels. That fact didn’t bother the Las Cruces City Council earlier this week. Four councilors, plus the mayor, voted to approve a resolution calling “on the New Mexico Legislature to enact legislation which requires comprehensive background checks for all firearm sales and which strengthens the criminal background check system for firearms in New Mexico.”

The vote isn’t likely to influence anyone in Santa Fe, but it did offer another example of local-government officials wandering into areas where they don’t belong.

“You run the police department, you run the fire department, you fix the roads, you do a lot of good things, but I don’t think national gun policy is one of them that you should be doing,” said Brad Cates, a former Reagan administration official and candidate for Doña Ana County district attorney.

It’s not like councilors don’t have more important concerns on their plate. Unemployment in the metro region is 6.7 percent, higher than it is in Albuquerque and Santa Fe, and higher than the national average. As the Southern New Mexico Business Coalition’s Don Biad recently lamented: “When you combine — just to name a few issues — the bureaucratic construction permitting processes, local impact fees for developers, minimum wage increase legislation, increased county taxes and the comprehensive development plan that violates private property rights currently working its way through the County Commission, there is no reason to think businesses will want to locate to southern New Mexico. Or even stay for that matter.”

Tell NM’s congressional delegation to support healthy alternative to cigarettes

07.07.2016

You may have read reports from a few months back stating that the federal Food and Drug Administration had “killed” vaping through the imposition of new regulations. Here’s one article on the subject. It’s true, if their plans are allowed to move forward, an un-elected group of bureaucrats will be placing unnecessary regulations on an industry that will likely result in more people smoking and the dramatic reduction in the far-healthier alternative known as “vaping” or e-cigarettes.

The “good” news (such as it is) is that Congress can push back against the “anti-vaping” crusaders at the FDA. change the 2007 predicate date, which would permit products currently being used by consumers to quit smoking to continue to be sold.

Reps. Michelle Lujan-Grisham and Rep. Ben Ray Lujan are two Members or Congress need convincing. While the mechanism is complicated, a simple call to your respective Representative urging them to “support the Cole language on vaping in H.R. 2058” would be adequate. Rep. Lujan-Grisham can be reached at: (202) 225-6316. Rep. Lujan can be reached at: (202)-225-6190.

Don’t believe me that vaping is healthier than cigarettes? As Matthew Myers of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids put it, “Responsibly marketed and properly regulated, e-cigarettes could benefit public health if they help significantly reduce the number of people who smoke conventional cigarettes and become sick and die as a result.” He further argued that if properly regulated, “I don’t think there is any doubt that there would be a reduction in harm,” from smokers who switched to e-cigarettes.

Federal incompetence costs NM a few tourist dollars

07.06.2016

According to new data from the State, New Mexico is seeing tremendous growth in its tourism numbers. I’m glad to hear it although tourism alone is not enough to support New Mexico’s overall economy. We’re still not in the top-10 among US states according to CNBC, but hey, we’ll take good news where we can get it these days.

My family and I were going to have a New Mexico “stay-cation” over the recent Independence Day holiday. We had plans to head to Carlsbad Caverns with the kids to tour them and see the evening bat “show.” Unfortunately, as was documented late last year on this blog, the elevator at Carlsbad Caverns has been out of service. Recent news reports had indicated it was fixed, but a closer reading of these articles followed up by a call down to the Caverns led to my finding out that the working elevator is the freight elevator with half the capacity of the usual elevator which remains out of service.

In order to confirm this, I called down to the Caverns and, according to the ranger I talked to, the expected wait time for the elevator out of the caverns during what is obviously a very busy Independence Day weekend, was expected to be 2-3 hours. With three small children, that was a no-go, so my wife and I canceled Carlsbad and planned a last-second trip to Sedona, AZ (taking our tourism dollars with us).

Could you imagine a for-profit business letting the elevator go absent repairs for months on end? Carlsbad isn’t alone. The National Parks have a $11.9 billion maintenance backlog. Perhaps it is time to consider leveraging the private sector to manage these and other “crown jewels?”

Too bad President Obama didn’t tour the Caverns on a busy Holiday weekend with the rest of us “working stiffs,” perhaps he would have seen that federal management is not getting the job done….

 

 

Compulsory Unionism Strikes Back!

07.06.2016

The Foundation is tracking announcements of expansions, relocations, and greenfield investments published on Area Development‘s website. Founded in 1965, the publication “is considered the leading executive magazine covering corporate site selection and relocation. … Area Development is published quarterly and has 60,000 mailed copies.” In an explanation to the Foundation, its editor wrote that items for Area Development‘s announcements listing are “culled from RSS feeds and press releases that are emailed to us from various sources, including economic development organizations, PR agencies, businesses, etc. We usually highlight ones that represent large numbers of new jobs and/or investment in industrial projects.”

In June, of 10,678 projected jobs, 6,139 — 57.5 percent — were slated for right-to-work (RTW) states:

jun_rtw

Last month was, far and away, the best performance by non-RTW states since the Foundation began its tracking in January 2015.

What accounts for the “impressive” performance of compulsory-unionism states? A harmonic convergence of huge projects — including Amazon’s pick of Illinois for two fulfillment centers (1,000 jobs total), Novavax’s choice of Maryland for “research, development, and clinical trial support operations” (850 jobs), and Shell’s announcement of an ethylene cracker near Pittsburgh (600 jobs.)

It was such a “strong” month for compulsory-unionism states, even New Mexico landed two investments. Mako Medical Laboratories plans to establish operations in Albuquerque, and create 100 jobs, and Wildflower International announced the addition of 81 positions in Santa Fe.

Still, in the three sub-metrics we scrutinize, RTW remained dominant.

Sixteen domestic companies based in non-RTW states announced investments in RTW states. Just four announcements went the other way.

RTW prevailed in foreign direct investment, too. Fifteen are headed to RTW states, with five to occur in non-RTW states.

Two relocations are to cross the barrier from non-RTW to RTW, with none headed from RTW to non-RTW.

Marquee RTW investments included GE Digital’s choice of Atlanta for its “first global Digital Operations Center” (250 jobs), China Jushi’s selection of South Carolina for its “first fiberglass manufacturing operation in the U.S.” (400 jobs), and Dexcom’s announcement of “a new state of the art manufacturing facility” in Arizona (500 jobs).

Do June’s data mean a sustainable turnaround for non-RTW states? If history is any guide, the chances are slim. Watch this space!

Methodological specifics:

* All job estimates — “up to,” “as many as,” “about” — were taken at face value, for RTW and non-RTW states alike.

* If an announcement did not make an employment projection, efforts were made to obtain an estimate from newspaper articles and/or press releases from additional sources.

* If no job figure could be found anywhere, the project was not counted, whether it was a RTW or non-RTW state.

* Intrastate relocations were not counted, interstate relocations were.

Volunteerism and the Budget Crunch

07.05.2016

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Over the holiday weekend, 100 volunteers patrolled the bosque in Corrales, checking for fires. It’s a program that runs all summer, and has been in place since 2010. As a town firefighter told KRQE, “We can’t be everywhere at once. It’s just that increased presence, there’s only so many of us.”

Volunteerism does a lot to preserve the bosque throughout the region. Last year, the Metro Rotary Club collected more than 50 bags of trash from a one-acre site near the I-40 overpass.

State parks also benefit from folks contributing their time. Earlier this month, the Albuquerque Journal reported that hundreds of volunteers “support … paid park rangers, playing a critical role in assisting campers, performing routine maintenance, staffing visitor centers and acting as educators.”

With tax revenue stagnant and costs always rising, government at every level in the Land of Enchantment should look for more ways to involve the public in “public” services.

New Mexico’s Supreme Court ignores law on worker’s compensation

07.01.2016

New Mexico’s Legislature had previously enacted a law that allowed employers with more than three employees to opt out of coverage for farm and ranch laborers but not other agricultural workers. The liberal-dominated New Mexico Supreme Court — Justice Judy Nakamura being the sole exception — decided that instead of the duly-elected Legislature being called upon to change the law, they should simply ignore the law on the grounds of “equal protection.”

While some news reports hailed the decision as a victory for thousands of farm and ranch laborers” which is typical for the shallow understanding of most media outlets, the reality is that New Mexico’s green chile industry (for example) is facing major challenges and this decision will not help producers compete with imports.

Of course, it is worth noting that the Court has also undermined the rule of law by usurping legislative prerogatives by simply making up the law to fit their preferred ends. Lastly, businesses will (again and beyond agriculture) look to avoid New Mexico because our courts cannot be trusted. The rule of law is a basic element of economic freedom. Undermining it has caused America’s standing as a beacon of freedom to drop in recent years and it is an under-reported element of economic factors at the state level as well.

Shockingly (OK, not really), New Mexico’s courts perform rather poorly (ranked 45th by the US Chamber of Commerce) when compared to those in other states. It is also worth noting that workers in these fields chose to do so voluntarily. Due to this ruling, there will likely be a significant reduction in those employment opportunities. So, yet again, it may look like “victory,” but it really means fewer workers involved in New Mexico agriculture. Look for more automation and fewer farmers.

http://nmsu.scienceblog.com/files/2015/11/Chuck-Havlik.jpg

 

 

Subsidizing, and Targeting, the Mother Road

07.01.2016

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Errors of Enchantment hopes to see readers tomorrow on Central Avenue in the Duke City, for the classic-car cruise to stop Albuquerque Rapid Transit (ART).

Many aspects of ART are maddening and frustrating, but one may be fiercest of all: the fact that government, at all levels, is working to preserve the history of Route 66.

At a presentation in Rio Rancho last week, the National Park Service’s Kaisa Barthuli described the many ways Washington has sought to keep the memory of the Mother Road alive. In 1990, the Route 66 Study Act authorized “a study on methods to commemorate the nationally significant highway.” Nine years later, the Route 66 Corridor Preservation Act charged the Department of the Interior with facilitating “the development of guidelines and a program of technical assistance and grants that will set priorities for the preservation of the Route 66 corridor.” In the last decade and a half, federal taxpayers have “contributed” millions of dollars to match private giving aimed at protecting historical buildings and structures along highway. Local and state governments play roles, too — the City of Albuquerque has a “Route 66 Action Plan,” which explores “several revitalization concepts aimed at improving the atmosphere, infrastructure, and economic opportunities within the 15 miles along Central Avenue.”

Both lawsuits filed against ART have, wisely, highlighted the impact the boondoggle-in-the-making will have on Route 66’s heritage.

So if you’re attending the classic-car cruise, have a blast. But remember that as a taxpayer, you’re providing funds to both support and threaten Route 66 history.

Happy Tax-Hike (or Tax-Cut) Day, New Mexico!

06.30.2016

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Tomorrow is the start of a new fiscal year for local governments and the state, but July 1st also brings several changes to municipal and county gross receipts taxes.

The GRT increase with the greatest impact can be found in Albuquerque. Last year, voters approved a “revenue enhancement” for infrastructure improvement at the Rio Grande Zoo and BioPark. Or, at least that was the cover story. In May, KRQE’s Chis McKee revealed that while the city “promised hundreds of millions of dollars in new construction,” actually, “a big chunk of the new … tax money won’t be used to build anything, but will actually be used to pay for some pricey new employees.”

Between 2000 and 2016, Albuquerque’s GRT rate rose from 5.8125 percent to 7.3125 percent — an astounding increase of 25.8 percent:

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In addition to Albuquerque’s 1.7 percent hike, rates will rise by 4.8 percent in Vaughn and 7.3 percent in Eunice.

In Luna County, though, there’s good news — rates will fall. In the unincorporated area, the GRT will decline by 1.8 percent. In Columbus and Deming, the cuts will be 1.6 percent.

Ending NAFTA would harm New Mexico economy

06.30.2016

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is no fan of free trade. We disagree with him on that and believe that the Trans Pacific Partnership which awaits Congressional action would be good for New Mexico’s hard-hit natural gas producers.

However, Trump recently stated that he’d end NAFTA — the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada — which has been in place for two decades now (NAFTA went into effect in 1994). Ending NAFTA could do great harm to New Mexico’s economy. While trade would still be done, NAFTA greatly contributed to expanded trade between the two nations, including exports to Mexico from New Mexico as seen below.

While a simple chart illustrates overall growth, the reality is that NAFTA has also helped increase the number of New Mexicans working in jobs supported by trade. The following chart is from the Business Roundtable. According to data from that organization, 80% more New Mexicans are now employed in international trade than they were prior to NAFTA.

We at the Rio Grande Foundation consistently work to increase the size of New Mexico’s private sector and decrease its reliance on government at all levels. Jobs created in New Mexico by free trade are good-paying jobs. The Santa Teresa border community is one of the few areas in our state that is performing well. While New Mexico is somewhat late to the party, this boom is largely the result of cross-border trade and NAFTA.

Free trade is at the heart of the free market economy. Abandonment of NAFTA would be a serious problem for New Mexico’s economy.

Off We Go, Into Promising Careers

06.29.2016

090602-F-2482B-038        U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Jeremiah Smith (left) and Senior Airman Theodore Cupp, both crew chiefs with the 525th Expeditionary Aircraft Maintenance Unit, do maintenance work on the system one hydraulic pump underneath an F-22 Raptor aircraft at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, on June 2, 2009.  The airmen are deployed from Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska.  DoD photo by Senior Airman Christopher Bush, U.S. Air Force.  (Released)

Kudos to Chapter 179 of the Experimental Aviation Association. The organization, whose members are “eager to share their passion for aviation,” is running a weeklong program for high-school students at Double Eagle II Airport.

As reported by the Albuquerque Journal, participants have “an opportunity to talk to pilots, and to learn about aerodynamics, aircraft design and navigation.” The students also attend “a workshop on riveting” and “talks on maintenance and avionics, communications and radio practice.”

Aviation careers appear to have a bright future. The Regional Airline Association avers that “the problem of pilot supply is endemic throughout the regional airline industry.” The New York Times recently wrote that a “dearth of qualified pilots is disrupting, reducing and even eliminating flights.” (Aviation economist and consultant Dan Akins told the paper: “After 35 years analyzing and following this industry, I’ve never seen anything like it — and it’s only going to get worse.”) Last summer, a Boeing forecast predicted the need for “609,000 new aircraft maintenance technicians over the next 20 years to meet rising demand.”

While the EAA’s program is not formally a manifestation of school choice, it is an example of how individuals and entities outside the government-school monopoly can inspire and inform — and direct teens toward marketable skills in an expanding industry.

The Stats on New Mexico’s Government Employment

06.28.2016

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Ashley Leach, an economist with the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions, has a useful — if incomplete — article in the latest edition of the bureaucracy’s Labor Market Review.

In 2015, Leach writes, among the states, only Wyoming and Alaska had greater shares of their workforces in “public service.” (See above.) But there’s a mighty large caveat worth noting. Employees at Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories are classified as “private,” and thus, thousands of workers who are truly on the payroll of the federal government weren’t counted.

In 2013, the Mercatus Center included federal contractors in its analysis of the real private sector in the 50 states. It found an all-in public-sector share 31.9 percent for New Mexico — making our workforce the most taxpayer-dependent in the nation.

Looking at local and state employment, Leach finds that New Mexico ranks “fifth in the nation” for the share of total jobs. Both categories hit their absolute peaks in 2009. Since then, local employment has fallen by just 3.4 percent. State employment declined by a mere 5.7 percent. Not much right-sizing there.

Finally, in seven counties — Mora, De Baca, Socorro, Hidalgo, Catron, Rio Arriba, and Harding — government employment accounts for more than 40 percent of all jobs. In contrast, New Mexico’s oil country — Lea and Eddy Counties — has the lowest share of total government employment.