At the Rio Grande Foundation we often contrast New Mexico with our faster-growing neighbors. By any measure Texas is one of the fastest growing states in the nation. Over the Independence Day holiday we saw firsthand that everything really IS bigger in Texas.
For starters our travels took us by plane to Love Field (we are a Southwest family and the airline was started in Texas). After briefly heading north for a concert by Lainey Wilson for one of my daughters we returned to the Dallas area to check out the Texas School Book Depository. We then drove to San Antonio to tour the Alamo and see the Riverwalk before heading to the beach at Port Aransas. Other points of interest included the Dr. Pepper Museum and Mammoth National Monument near Waco.
Having traveled more in Texas than I ever have in my life I can say that the State is booming. That means plenty of road construction like I-35 through Dallas or the massive new bridge going up in Corpus Christi.
Of course, while nobody likes road construction, the roads need to be rebuilt or expanded to accommodate a growing population and growing economy. That means wealth and jobs. The new Tesla plant outside Austin is incredibly large and is just one of the many private sector construction projects being built in the State.
Oh, and Buc’ees is amazing. If you travel through the South where they have one I HIGHLY recommend you check it out. They pay great wages and have a bunch of unique products.
A fascinating new report from Axios recently drilled down into state GDP numbers to find out which state economies are growing relative to their previous share of the national economy and which are shrinking. The time period covered is the decade from 2012 to 2022. You can see the map below.
It is hardly a surprise that GDP is moving south and west because PEOPLE are moving south and west. North Dakota’s tremendous growth in its oil and gas sector over the last decade drove dramatic population growth, but that doesn’t seem to be happening in New Mexico (at least so far) with our shrinking share of the national economic pie.
Just one year after Gov. Lujan Grisham’s first electric vehicle mandate went into effect (7 percent of vehicles sold in New Mexico must be EV’s), the Gov. wants another bite at the regulation “apple.”
RGF had wondered since California adopted it’s own 100% EV mandate (an outright ban on gas vehicles by 2035 adopted last August) whether Gov. Lujan Grisham would follow suit with her own ban. The answer appears to be “not quite,” but the Gov. plans on imposing a 43 percent mandate starting in 2027 with that requirement going to 82% by 2032. So, California but different.
Will the Environmental Improvement Board (EIB) be a rubber stamp for the Gov.’s preferences once again? We assume so. Will the market go along with these aggressive EV plans even with all the subsidies and mandates? Early signs are not great.
At the VERY least New Mexico’s elected legislature should act on this radical plan, not an un-elected body.
Nationally COVID lockdowns saw a significant decline in student outcomes. That decline was even more pronounced in New Mexico where lockdowns were particularly long and broadband is particularly poor.
A recent report, however, shows that Catholic Schools (which already outperform traditional public schools) did not see as much learning loss as did traditional public schools. Post-COVID scores DID decline slightly, but were considered not of statistical significance by NAEP.
The following article appeared in the Las Cruces Sun News and other media outlets on June 30, 2023.
Once again New Mexico is at the very bottom of a list. Kids Count 2023 is compiled by the Annie E. Casey Foundation with distribution and media handled by New Mexico Voices for Children.
While it is not the report Rio Grande Foundation would compile, the 16 variables considered in do highlight issues regarding the well-being of New Mexico children. Sadly, like so many similar reports, the results are not good for our state. What is unique is the positive spin being applied by Voices for Children.
As Voices for Children’s Amber Wallin recently wrote in an opinion piece, “you shouldn’t let the rankings get you down because they don’t tell us how far we’ve come.” We politely disagree and believe that Voices would not have the same sanguine viewpoint if a Republican governor or Legislature were calling the shots.
In 2019 the organization’s then Director James Jimenez said of New Mexico’s 50th ranking, “It is very much a reflection of what happened, and more specifically, what didn’t happen during the Martinez years.”
We took a careful look through this year’s report and found that of the 16 variables, 9 of them got worse while 6 improved (one stayed the same). That is hardly cause for celebration.
Perhaps even more interesting than the overall results is New Mexico’s poor performance in four “COVID-related” indicators. In our view these include:
These four variables (of the 16 in the report) have significant connections to Gov. Lujan Grisham’s COVID lockdown policies that locked our kids out of school for over a year and encouraged New Mexicans to stay inside and isolate themselves from other people.
The good news is that the COVID pandemic is over, as are the Gov.’s restrictions. Sadly, as critics pointed out at the time, the impacts of her policies were clearly going to do more harm than good. Will the kids, especially those from poor families be able to recover? It is hard to say.
What is clear is that after more than four years in office and with the benefit of an unprecedented oil boom, massive spending increases haven’t improved New Mexico’s 50th-place performance. We recommend going a different direction from the government-driven status quo (a status quo that has dominated New Mexico for nearly a century).
Instead of more government programs we can use the oil and gas surplus to reform our anti-business gross receipts tax and then focus on eliminating the anti-work personal income and corporate taxes. Make New Mexico the jobs and economic growth hub of the Americans Southwest and watch as good paying jobs and economic opportunity improve education, social, and economic outcomes for our children and all New Mexicans.
We are a long way psychologically and politically from breaking out of the big-government paradigm, but it is long overdue. After all, it’s for the children.
Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation. The Rio Grande Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility
Even before the pandemic lockdowns, the New Mexico education system underperformed. After years of being ranked at 49th and 50th, our system has slid further into disrepair. New Mexico is now ranked 51st in the nation for education.
New Mexico’s children are more vulnerable than ever to learning loss. It’s time to find alternatives to New Mexico’s faltering education system.
As families continue to be affected by policies and procedures enacted during the pandemic, it’s time to find solutions for our students and families.
The Opportunity for All Kids conference is for policymakers, teachers, administrators, legislators, parents, and concerned citizens invested in creating opportunity. Whether interested in charter schools, private schools, parochial schools, home schools, or microschools, only together can we reform New Mexico’s systems and expand education options.
Our children and families deserve an education system that sets them up for success. Join the Rio Grande Foundation for a full-day education reform conference as we discuss and collaborate on ideas and strategies for a more child-focused future.
Deadline to obtain ticket 09/16/2023, Midnight, (GMT-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada)
Some interest groups are lobbying for a public bank in New Mexico. Others want a “green” bank. What’s going on with these proposals?
Liability in the event of a disaster. The submarine loss raises questions for New Mexico about Spaceport and whether taxpayers could be on the hook in the event of a disaster. This is especially relevant as the first paying customers are set to fly out of Spaceport America this week.
Tuesday the 27th is the 5th anniversary of the Janus decision. New Mexico government employee unions saw the biggest decline in membership of any state thanks in part to RGF educational efforts.
New Mexico has $70.84 billion invested in various funds. It is not a poor state, but it is a poorly governed state:
ABQ City Council embraced casitas and rejected the “weak mayor” change for local government. Paul and Wally are pleased by the casita decision and understand the lack of willingness to switch governments. Also, RGF helped push Albuquerque Public Schools to publish their recent budgets.
Lujan Grisham wants feds to follow California’s lead on zero emission trucks. Here’s what that means.
At the Rio Grande Foundation we constantly are working to provide new and interesting perspectives regarding New Mexico’s economy. Traditionally the State which has a small population and no Fortune 500 businesses located here has not had super-wealthy people at the very top of the income scale.
One would typically expect that someone in oil and gas would be the wealthiest person in New Mexico with the State now the 2nd-largest producer of oil in the nation. But, according to Forbes, the wealthiest New Mexican is Array Technologies founder Ron Corio. He is also New Mexico’s first-ever billionaire.
Of course, solar is heavily-subsidized and becoming more so thanks to Biden Administration policies, so this is sadly fitting.
As per the usual arrangement New Mexico’s left-wing governor wants California to be the standard for what happens in New Mexico. The State Environmental Department under the auspices of the Gov. joined a few other left-wing states and signed a letter to the EPA in which it demands that the agency follow California in embracing standards equivalent to California’s Advanced Clean Trucks standard.
What would that mean? According to the International Council on Clean Transportation, here’s where the “rubber hits the road.” We have yet to see an electric or “zero emissions” tractor trailer on the road in New Mexico, but by next year that would be the requirement if Gov. Lujan Grisham got her way. You can see how the requirement would rise for various types of trucks below. 
A new report from the Mackinac Center, a free market think tank based in Michigan highlights the impact the Supreme Court decision had on membership in New Mexico government employee unions. The Janus decision by the US Supreme Court was handed down on June 27, 2018. It essentially stated that public employees could not be required to join government employee unions. This is the basic idea behind Right to Work laws.
The Rio Grande Foundation partnered with the Mackinac Center post-Janus to educate public employee unions on their rights.
According to data from the Mackinac Center, New Mexico unions saw a massive 61.9% drop in union membership in the wake of the decision. Colorado saw the 2nd-biggest decrease but New Mexico’s was by far the largest decline as can be seen in the following chart.
Clearly, when given the choice, many New Mexico government workers would prefer NOT to be in the union.
If you haven’t heard yet about the tragic deaths of five people in a submarine visiting wreckage of the Titanic this week, you are in the minority. Anytime humans set out on big adventures, there are risks. Space, like oceans are risky.
That’s why in 2021 the New Mexico Legislature placed a $1 million cap on legal liability provided to Virgin Galactic. With Virgin Galactic set to begin paid space tourism flights as soon as Tuesday, June 27, it is worth at least asking whether New Mexico taxpayers (the State) might be on the hook or at least targeted by some enterprising lawyer in the case of a future mishap at the facility.
No one wants tragedies to happen, but the Legislature clearly was thinking of liability when it passed this cap in 2021. We are concerned they may not have protected New Mexicans as effectively as they protected Virgin Galactic.
Last week we posted noting that APS had not posted its two most recent budgets. We are pleased to announce that this has been addressed by the District. You can see a screenshot of the site below. Here is where you can find the APS budgets for FY 2023 and FY 2024:
One of the very best things that happened during the 2023 legislative session was expansion of “529 plans” that can be used to save for education (now they can be used for both college and K-12). This week’s show is an interview with Carolyn Fittipaldi, Marketing Director, and Natalie Cordova, Executive Director of The Education Trust Board of New Mexico.
This is an important tool for New Mexicans to save for all kinds of education options. You should listen AND share this episode with anyone interested in improving and saving for education in New Mexico.
The following appeared in the Las Cruces Sun News and numerous other newspapers on June 18, 2022.
According to New Mexico’s Tax and Revenue Department rebate checks (or transfers to bank accounts) will be going out at any time during the middle of June. At the Rio Grande Foundation we welcome the $500 or $1,000 (depending on single/married filing status). This is especially true at a time when inflation is rising faster than wages.
But New Mexico is in the midst of an unprecedented boom in its oil and gas industry and, while those checks are nice, they are a pittance relative to the windfall being experienced in State government. Worse, unless the Legislature and Gov. take concrete action and soon to diversify the economy, New Mexico will waste this unique opportunity.
First the numbers: according to the Legislature’s analysts, the one-time “cost” of the rebates is $667 million. You may recall that the Legislature began the 2023 session with a surplus of $3.6 billion and spent $1.2 billion of that.
Though new spending was “just” double the amount of the rebates, the reality is that almost all of the money not spent this year will be put into reserves to be spent in the future. That means that more than 80 percent of this year’s budget surplus will ultimately be spent (unless the Legislature enacts some real tax cuts in the 2024 session).
There are a few major points to be made:
Like all New Mexicans we at the Rio Grande Foundation welcome these rebates. What we are looking for out of Lujan Grisham and the Legislature is some kind of coherent economic strategy (besides simply spending more money). It is time to translate our oil and gas wealth into prosperity for ALL New Mexicans. That requires average New Mexicans to engage with and hold this Legislature and Gov. accountable for their policy decisions.
Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation. The Rio Grande Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility
At Rio Grande Foundation we have commented here and here about the State’s 50th overall ranking in the latest Kids Count report. We are digging into it in detail and providing context (per the usual). Liberal interest groups and many media outlets rarely criticized Gov. Lujan Grisham’s school closure or lockdown policies at the time (we did).
Of the 16 variables highlighted in the report we believe that four are directly related to state COVID policies. We have posted graphics directly from the report below. The report itself notes in the black text just how steep these variables have declined.
If there IS cause for optimism here it is that even lockdown-happy Michelle Lujan Grisham has long ago relented. The bad news of course is that New Mexico’s kids (already facing big challenges and previous 50th and 49th place rankings in the report) were unnecessarily and further impacted by the Gov.’s policies.
While child and teen death rates MAY have been impacted by COVID to an extent, data suggests it was more likely driven by depression and suicide.
An idea has been kicking around New Mexico for a few years to start a “public bank.” As the group describes it, a public bank would, “hold deposits of the state’s revenue (taxes and fees) (and) would be a tool to increase investments in New Mexican communities rather than those funds being held by global banks making investments outside the state.”
Color us skeptical. Legislation (even in New Mexico’s “progressive” Legislature) has been introduced in recent years, but has not made it very far in the process.
More recently, the Santa Fe New Mexican has run an editorial outlining support for a “green” bank which of course would ALSO be “public,” but would be focused on environmental goals. The editorial explains, “A green bank can better enable New Mexico to access dollars in the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a program that’s part of the Inflation Reduction Act. That fund has around $27 billion to invest in projects around the nation. New Mexico should be ready to seek its share of climate dollars and to loan them efficiently and wisely.”
The original public bank idea was supposedly based on what North Dakota has in place, but we always believed that it would be politicized and not at all resemble North Dakota’s “model.” The “green” bank seems to be closer to what advocates really want, but it doesn’t resemble a bank so much as a tool for sucking up federal dollars made available via the printing press and Biden Administration.
We will be watching and reporting on BOTH of these ill-advised ideas. We recorded a podcast with Jerry Walker of the Independent Community Bankers Association of New Mexico on the original “public bank” idea.
While the folks at Voices for Children desperately try to spin New Mexico’s horrendous results in the annual Kids Count report, we are much more interested in finding out how New Mexico’s performance is improving, worsening, and whether the variables in question make sense or not.
Here we go through all 16 variables and our take if needed (you can view the pages for yourself below):
1) Children in poverty improved in 2023.
2) Children whose parents lack secure income worsened in 2023.
3) Children in households with a high housing cost improved in 2023.
4) Teens not in school and not working worsened in 2023.
5) Young children not in school worsened in 2023. While surprising considering New Mexico’s embrace of universal preschool for 3 and 4 year olds, this data point is based on the assumption that 3 and 4 year old children should be in school. We disagree and find this variable lacking in relevance.
6) Fourth graders NOT reading and eighth graders not proficient in math both worsened with results being especially concerning and stark for 8th grade math.
7) High school graduates not graduating on time improved, but we find this variable of dubious relevance due to ever-changing graduation requirements.
8) Low-birth weight babies worsened.
9) Children w/o health insurance stayed same.
10) Child/teen death rate per 100,000 worsened dramatically. Both COVID and lockdowns undoubtedly played a part.
11) Overweight youth worsened. COVID lockdowns undoubtedly played a part.
12) Children in single parent families worsened.
13) Children in families where household head lacks high school diploma improved.
14) Children living in high poverty areas improved.
15)Teen birth rate improved.
Overall, six metrics improved since 2022 while nine fell. Two of the metrics (young children not in school and HS graduation) are questionable in their merits). Undoubtedly of greatest concerns is the poor educational performance of 4th and especially 8th graders despite massive infusions of tax dollars.
On this week’s episode Paul interviews Dr. Howard Gogel of Southwest Gastroenterology to discuss the accomplishments of the 2023 legislative session when it comes to New Mexico’s medical provider shortage. Yes, they passed medical malpractice reform and some reforms targeted at addressing gross receipts taxes for doctors, but will they move the needle on getting more medical providers to New Mexico? You don’t want to miss this important episode!
UPDATE: APS has updated its budget information. See our post here.
We at the Rio Grande Foundation have had our disagreements with Albuquerque Public Schools, but they are usually very good about getting their budget information online and in a usable format.
Sadly, that is no longer the case. See for yourself at their “budget and strategic planning” page on the APS website. We have a screen below in hopes that it changes and the FY 2023 and FY 2024 budgets are posted soon.
We have the FY 2024 budget (adopted a few weeks ago) posted here. We have never seen the FY 2023 budget though we made calculations based on media reports here.
The effort to put several problematic policies on the ballot as a referendum has run into a significant roadblock due to our Secretary of State, a judicial ruling, but specifically a provision relating to “public peace, health or safety” of the state.
Deb Haaland encountered Navajo protestors on her recent trip to “celebrate” Chaco limits.
NM’s left wing land commissioner imposes arbitrary 1-mile barrier around schools. What will be the impact?
Paul recently visited Alamogordo/Silver City.
According to the National Weather Service, May 27 is the average date for Albuquerque’s first 90+ degree day. It is June 13 and the first 90-degree day is likely to (finally) come Thursday. The yearly. The Number of Days of 90 °F in Albuquerque by Year makes for interesting viewing.
New report: COVID created in Wuhan Lab through classified Chinese military bioweapons program. According to a new report from the London Times, “Investigators who scrutinized top-secret intercepted communications and scientific research believe Chinese scientists were running a covert project of dangerous experiments, which caused a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology and started the Covid-19 outbreak.
The US investigators say one of the reasons there is no published information on the work is because it was done in collaboration with researchers from the Chinese military, which was funding it and which, they say, was pursuing bioweapons.
According to recent analysis New Mexico’s FY 2023 budget surplus was north of $4.1 billion.
New Mexico uses revenue windfall to boost current, future spending while other states including Nebraska are reducing taxes (more interesting data from LFC).
The debate over gas stoves continues apace with several news items from the past few weeks. Sen. Martin Heinrich again claims that no effort or plan is underway to ban gas stoves. But, in response to a federal court ruling that prohibited local governments from banning gas stoves, the Biden Administration has filed a “friend of the court” or amicus brief in support of local stove bans (even though the ruling said that power was reserved for the federal government).
And then two bills were voted on in Congress this past week dealing with gas stoves. Click on the links to get the roll call votes: H. R. 1615 prohibits the Consumer Product Safety Commission from banning gas stoves or passing regulations that substantially increases their price.
H. R. 1640 prohibits the Department of the Energy (DOE) from regulating gas stoves out of existence.
Both bills passed the House on a bipartisan basis. Of New Mexico’s congressional delegation, only Rep. Gabe Vasquez voted “Yes” and only on HR 1615.
Judge Glock, Director of Research at the Manhattan Institute, is an expert on homeless policy in the United States. On June 14 he gave a presentation in Albuquerque and also sat down with Bob Clark of KKOB radio.
His detailed slides can be found here: Homeless Presentation.
His conversation w/ Bob Clark is below:
With efforts underway in the City of Albuquerque to change to a City Manager/weak mayor form of government (which Phoenix has), there has been a good deal of back-and-forth in the media comparing Phoenix and Albuquerque.
Advocates of the governance change say Albuquerque’s “strong mayor” system is hurting the City while others say that is not the case. We don’t have a position on that governance issue, but DO want to see a vote and robust debate on the issue, especially if one of the focal points is the superior growth of Phoenix relative to Albuquerque.
We believe that the primary difference is the massive difference in economic freedom and educational freedom with Arizona being more economically-free than New Mexico. If New Mexico (or Albuquerque) wants to compete with Arizona (or Phoenix) it must change the Legislature and elect better governors in ways that emphasize economic growth and educational freedom.
Sadly, but yet again, the annual Kids Count published by the Annie E. Casey Foundation in partnership with left-wing Voices for Children, has found New Mexico dead last in their report. The latest findings are unsurprising given New Mexico’s performance has been either 49th or 50th since 2012.
What IS amusing to watch is the ongoing effort by Voices to “put lipstick on the pig” by highlighting the positives in the report. We have previously commented on the Voices’ spin. Now that a “progressive” Democrat and Legislature are in firm control of New Mexico they think something positive should be happening (and it should be given New Mexico’s ongoing oil and gas boom).
There are numerous variables considered in the report but contrary to generous reports in the media, 9 variables worsened while only 6 improved.
By far the biggest area of concern is education which has seen an influx of spending in recent years, but saw stark declines in performance, especially in 8th grade math which fell by 8 percentage points. This can at least partially be attributed to the Gov. COVID lockdowns, but that won’t be discussed by the media or Voices.
