At Rio Grande Foundation we have commented here and here about the State’s 50th overall ranking in the latest Kids Count report. We are digging into it in detail and providing context (per the usual). Liberal interest groups and many media outlets rarely criticized Gov. Lujan Grisham’s school closure or lockdown policies at the time (we did).
Of the 16 variables highlighted in the report we believe that four are directly related to state COVID policies. We have posted graphics directly from the report below. The report itself notes in the black text just how steep these variables have declined.
If there IS cause for optimism here it is that even lockdown-happy Michelle Lujan Grisham has long ago relented. The bad news of course is that New Mexico’s kids (already facing big challenges and previous 50th and 49th place rankings in the report) were unnecessarily and further impacted by the Gov.’s policies.
While child and teen death rates MAY have been impacted by COVID to an extent, data suggests it was more likely driven by depression and suicide.
An idea has been kicking around New Mexico for a few years to start a “public bank.” As the group describes it, a public bank would, “hold deposits of the state’s revenue (taxes and fees) (and) would be a tool to increase investments in New Mexican communities rather than those funds being held by global banks making investments outside the state.”
Color us skeptical. Legislation (even in New Mexico’s “progressive” Legislature) has been introduced in recent years, but has not made it very far in the process.
More recently, the Santa Fe New Mexican has run an editorial outlining support for a “green” bank which of course would ALSO be “public,” but would be focused on environmental goals. The editorial explains, “A green bank can better enable New Mexico to access dollars in the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a program that’s part of the Inflation Reduction Act. That fund has around $27 billion to invest in projects around the nation. New Mexico should be ready to seek its share of climate dollars and to loan them efficiently and wisely.”
The original public bank idea was supposedly based on what North Dakota has in place, but we always believed that it would be politicized and not at all resemble North Dakota’s “model.” The “green” bank seems to be closer to what advocates really want, but it doesn’t resemble a bank so much as a tool for sucking up federal dollars made available via the printing press and Biden Administration.
We will be watching and reporting on BOTH of these ill-advised ideas. We recorded a podcast with Jerry Walker of the Independent Community Bankers Association of New Mexico on the original “public bank” idea.
While the folks at Voices for Children desperately try to spin New Mexico’s horrendous results in the annual Kids Count report, we are much more interested in finding out how New Mexico’s performance is improving, worsening, and whether the variables in question make sense or not.
Here we go through all 16 variables and our take if needed (you can view the pages for yourself below):
1) Children in poverty improved in 2023.
2) Children whose parents lack secure income worsened in 2023.
3) Children in households with a high housing cost improved in 2023.
4) Teens not in school and not working worsened in 2023.
5) Young children not in school worsened in 2023. While surprising considering New Mexico’s embrace of universal preschool for 3 and 4 year olds, this data point is based on the assumption that 3 and 4 year old children should be in school. We disagree and find this variable lacking in relevance.
6) Fourth graders NOT reading and eighth graders not proficient in math both worsened with results being especially concerning and stark for 8th grade math.
7) High school graduates not graduating on time improved, but we find this variable of dubious relevance due to ever-changing graduation requirements.
8) Low-birth weight babies worsened.
9) Children w/o health insurance stayed same.
10) Child/teen death rate per 100,000 worsened dramatically. Both COVID and lockdowns undoubtedly played a part.
11) Overweight youth worsened. COVID lockdowns undoubtedly played a part.
12) Children in single parent families worsened.
13) Children in families where household head lacks high school diploma improved.
14) Children living in high poverty areas improved.
15)Teen birth rate improved.
Overall, six metrics improved since 2022 while nine fell. Two of the metrics (young children not in school and HS graduation) are questionable in their merits). Undoubtedly of greatest concerns is the poor educational performance of 4th and especially 8th graders despite massive infusions of tax dollars.
On this week’s episode Paul interviews Dr. Howard Gogel of Southwest Gastroenterology to discuss the accomplishments of the 2023 legislative session when it comes to New Mexico’s medical provider shortage. Yes, they passed medical malpractice reform and some reforms targeted at addressing gross receipts taxes for doctors, but will they move the needle on getting more medical providers to New Mexico? You don’t want to miss this important episode!
UPDATE: APS has updated its budget information. See our post here.
We at the Rio Grande Foundation have had our disagreements with Albuquerque Public Schools, but they are usually very good about getting their budget information online and in a usable format.
Sadly, that is no longer the case. See for yourself at their “budget and strategic planning” page on the APS website. We have a screen below in hopes that it changes and the FY 2023 and FY 2024 budgets are posted soon.
We have the FY 2024 budget (adopted a few weeks ago) posted here. We have never seen the FY 2023 budget though we made calculations based on media reports here.
The effort to put several problematic policies on the ballot as a referendum has run into a significant roadblock due to our Secretary of State, a judicial ruling, but specifically a provision relating to “public peace, health or safety” of the state.
Deb Haaland encountered Navajo protestors on her recent trip to “celebrate” Chaco limits.
NM’s left wing land commissioner imposes arbitrary 1-mile barrier around schools. What will be the impact?
Paul recently visited Alamogordo/Silver City.
According to the National Weather Service, May 27 is the average date for Albuquerque’s first 90+ degree day. It is June 13 and the first 90-degree day is likely to (finally) come Thursday. The yearly. The Number of Days of 90 °F in Albuquerque by Year makes for interesting viewing.
New report: COVID created in Wuhan Lab through classified Chinese military bioweapons program. According to a new report from the London Times, “Investigators who scrutinized top-secret intercepted communications and scientific research believe Chinese scientists were running a covert project of dangerous experiments, which caused a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology and started the Covid-19 outbreak.
The US investigators say one of the reasons there is no published information on the work is because it was done in collaboration with researchers from the Chinese military, which was funding it and which, they say, was pursuing bioweapons.
According to recent analysis New Mexico’s FY 2023 budget surplus was north of $4.1 billion.
New Mexico uses revenue windfall to boost current, future spending while other states including Nebraska are reducing taxes (more interesting data from LFC).
The debate over gas stoves continues apace with several news items from the past few weeks. Sen. Martin Heinrich again claims that no effort or plan is underway to ban gas stoves. But, in response to a federal court ruling that prohibited local governments from banning gas stoves, the Biden Administration has filed a “friend of the court” or amicus brief in support of local stove bans (even though the ruling said that power was reserved for the federal government).
And then two bills were voted on in Congress this past week dealing with gas stoves. Click on the links to get the roll call votes: H. R. 1615 prohibits the Consumer Product Safety Commission from banning gas stoves or passing regulations that substantially increases their price.
H. R. 1640 prohibits the Department of the Energy (DOE) from regulating gas stoves out of existence.
Both bills passed the House on a bipartisan basis. Of New Mexico’s congressional delegation, only Rep. Gabe Vasquez voted “Yes” and only on HR 1615.
Judge Glock, Director of Research at the Manhattan Institute, is an expert on homeless policy in the United States. On June 14 he gave a presentation in Albuquerque and also sat down with Bob Clark of KKOB radio.
His detailed slides can be found here: Homeless Presentation.
His conversation w/ Bob Clark is below:
With efforts underway in the City of Albuquerque to change to a City Manager/weak mayor form of government (which Phoenix has), there has been a good deal of back-and-forth in the media comparing Phoenix and Albuquerque.
Advocates of the governance change say Albuquerque’s “strong mayor” system is hurting the City while others say that is not the case. We don’t have a position on that governance issue, but DO want to see a vote and robust debate on the issue, especially if one of the focal points is the superior growth of Phoenix relative to Albuquerque.
We believe that the primary difference is the massive difference in economic freedom and educational freedom with Arizona being more economically-free than New Mexico. If New Mexico (or Albuquerque) wants to compete with Arizona (or Phoenix) it must change the Legislature and elect better governors in ways that emphasize economic growth and educational freedom.
Sadly, but yet again, the annual Kids Count published by the Annie E. Casey Foundation in partnership with left-wing Voices for Children, has found New Mexico dead last in their report. The latest findings are unsurprising given New Mexico’s performance has been either 49th or 50th since 2012.
What IS amusing to watch is the ongoing effort by Voices to “put lipstick on the pig” by highlighting the positives in the report. We have previously commented on the Voices’ spin. Now that a “progressive” Democrat and Legislature are in firm control of New Mexico they think something positive should be happening (and it should be given New Mexico’s ongoing oil and gas boom).
There are numerous variables considered in the report but contrary to generous reports in the media, 9 variables worsened while only 6 improved.
By far the biggest area of concern is education which has seen an influx of spending in recent years, but saw stark declines in performance, especially in 8th grade math which fell by 8 percentage points. This can at least partially be attributed to the Gov. COVID lockdowns, but that won’t be discussed by the media or Voices.
The following article by William Patrick Leonard, senior fellow with the Rio Grande Foundation, was published in the Santa Fe New Mexican on 6/4/23.
According to the state Attorney General’s Office, “The Inspection of Public Records Act is intended to provide the public with access to information on governmental affairs. The law requires public access to virtually all public records with a few exceptions. Most records are available for public inspection.”
Early responses were encouraging. One research institution responded within three days. Three comprehensives and one research institution sent the requested data within two weeks. All were com- plete, although varying in format. New Mexico Highlands and UNM were non-compliant. The latter quickly denied my request, claiming an exemption from an Attorney General’s Office finding in an unrelated municipal case.
The following briefly describes how New Mexico’s public research and comprehensive universities responded to a request for data.
I appealed, noting that its rationale was flawed. Highlands was more evasive. Initially, I was redirected to other officers within the institution. Finally, I was advised that the officer responsible was off campus and unavailable to respond. My subsequent attempts failed.
I requested the number of first- time, full-time fall 2017 through 2021 New Mexico enrollees required to take between one and four remedial courses; the number completing that fall term; and the number enrolling in the subsequent spring term.
The two institutions employed different noncompliance tactics. Both appeared to have the same goal: wear the requester out. Follow- ing the Public Records Act, I sought the state’s Attorney General Office’s assistance. Some communication between the agency and Highlands led to a response that it did not have any enrolled students required to register in remedial coursework.
I first filed a public information request form with the listed custodians at the state’s public universities — Eastern New Mexico University, New Mexico Highlands University, New Mexico State University, New Mexico Tech, Northern New Mex- ico College, the University of New Mexico and Western New Mexico University suggested otherwise.
Highlands does enroll probationary and non-degree students. Further, its catalog lists a course, “English Reading and Writing for Inquiry. This course offers instruction and practice in college-level critical reading and writing skills. It is designed to give students experienceand practice developing academic inquiry needed for much of their course- work.
While the data sought likely exists, it appears to be secret. Why the institution did not reveal its current policy remains unanswered. The Attorney General’s Office appears to haveclosed the case.
The AG’s approach to UNM, cit- ing the cover of an unrelated municipal case, has remained unresolved.I was informed that it had queried the institution and referred its response to the attorneys.Three subsequent requests for the resolution to the AG’s Office have yet to receive a response.
Five of seven relatively prompt responses suggest my request did not pose major assembly or confidentiality issues.My experience indicates the Inspection of Public Records Act’s measured enforcement facilitates selective noncompliance.
Why fight the law? The prompt response from five of seven does not suggest resource issues. Perhaps the data sought challenges a desired public image. Since the data sought focuses on the graduates of New Mexico’s primary and secondary schools,any embarrassment should be rested.
Revoking the law has been advanced. It would only lead to lengthy and costly lawsuits.A more reasonable solution would include timely and consistent compliance and enforcement.
William Patrick Leonard is a senior fellow with the Rio Grande Foundation.
1) We don’t have a “sales tax,” we have a gross receipts tax, but the info is still accurate.
2) New Mexico is undergoing an unprecedented oil and gas boom, yet this tax remains.
3) Sales taxes (and the GRT) are regressive meaning they impact the poor most. This, despite (or because) New Mexico has a “progressive” Legislature.
According to the Pew Center on the States, New Mexico is one of 18 US states to ave lost population from July 2021 to July 2022. This is not a surprise as New Mexico has been plagued by slow population growth for years. And, while New Mexico’s percentage population loss wasn’t “that” bad, it is worse than a lot of “rust belt” states and light years behind its neighbors, all of which are among the fastest growing.
But, it is the kind of situation that should NOT be happening in a state undergoing a boom in its biggest industry (oil and gas).
Furthermore according to Pew while New Mexico gained population between 2010 and 2020 its annual growth rate was anemic, especially compared with its neighbors.
Directly quoting from Pew:
Fast-growing populations typically translate to strong labor force growth, which fuels economic activity and helps states generate tax revenue to fund any increased spending, such as for education or infrastructure. But on the other hand, a shrinking or slow-growing population can be both a cause and an effect of weakened economic prospects. Less economic activity can limit state revenue collections. And although a smaller population can lead to a reduction in some types of spending, it also means there are fewer residents to help cover the costs of long-standing commitments, such as debt and state employee retirement benefits.
At the Rio Grande Foundation we recognize that weather and climate are two different things. But, the left both asserts that climate change is a catastrophe AND they regularly assert that everything from Canadian fires to winter storms is driven by “climate change” (formerly “global warming).”
Now, KRQE Channel 13 is reporting that New Mexico may have its hottest summer ever thanks to the El Niño weather phenomenon.
But, did you know that Albuquerque has NOT had a day of 90 degrees or more so far in 2023? Did you know that we typically have our first 90 degree day by May 27? There are many ways to present data, but the following chart uses data from this website to illustrate the number of 90 degree days FROM RIGHT to LEFT. You can also see the trend line which if anything goes down as time goes on. 90 degree days are on the way this summer, but it is hard to see how this particular trend represents a global warming crisis.
This website which tracks the number of 100+ degree days from the National Weather Service also doesn’t exactly show that Albuquerque specifically is warming dramatically.
New Mexico is awash in revenue from the State’s oil and gas industry and as we reported last week, that flood of revenue shows no signs of stopping. New Mexicans will soon be receiving $500 or $1,000 checks from the State thanks to legislation passed in the recent legislative session and those are welcome relief for families that have seen negative wage growth in the Biden economy.
However, there are two major issues with these rebates:
On this Tipping Point conversation Paul interviews Gerges Scott. Gerges is a Senior VP at Agenda, an Albuquerque-based public relations firm. Gerges was recently “across the pond” for conferences in Scotland and England. Gerges and Paul also discuss the Holtec facility which was recently approved in Southeast New Mexico and its importance both for the New Mexico economy AND for its potential role in reigniting America’s nuclear industry and efforts to bring zero-carbon energy to market.
Finally, Paul and Gerges talk about the “fake news” from a left-wing advocacy group which claims that he has a state contract to single-handedly transition New Mexico’s economy away from oil and gas.
As RGF has discussed, unlike the past, New Mexico’s current oil and gas boom is being driven by strong production. That means that even if prices per barrel drop, New Mexico will still see historically-strong revenues. It is also contrary to the left-wing narrative that New Mexico is going to see oil/gas revenues dry up or the nation/world abandon fossil fuels anytime soon.
Now, the latest report is that New Mexico’s oil and gas revenues exceed expected levels by $581 million above December estimates. That is above estimates made as recently as December for the current 2023 fiscal year which ends June 30.
As the New Mexican article notes, Democrats in the Legislature are upset the Gov. vetoed several “green” subsidies. RGF is frustrated the Legislature didn’t include needed GRT reform in the tax reform package and that the Gov. vetoed even rate reductions.
Regardless, the report points to the fact that the revenue boom continues and that MLG and the Legislature have another opportunity to enact needed tax reform.
On this week’s conversation Paul and Wally briefly discuss Albuquerque’s City Council consideration of putting significant governance changes on the ballot.
Meanwhile, the City recently asked volunteers to help clean up bus stops.
New Mexico’s new “529” law takes effect on June 16. The new law gives additional K-12 savings choices to New Mexicans.
The Legislative Finance Committee is undergoing a leadership change. RGF and recent LFC report both highlight New Mexico’s workforce participation rate challenges. Furthermore, according to the LFC report: Oil and gas generates more than half of general fund revenues.
Secretary of Interior Haaland ignores Navajo objections and imposed a 10 mile buffer around Chaco Monument.
Another round of national coverage on Mississippi’s education miracle.
New Mexico uses revenue windfall to boost current, future spending while other states including Nebraska are reducing taxes (more interesting data from LFC).
According to news reports New Mexico Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard has imposed a one-mile boundary on NEW oil and gas leases around schools. The limit ONLY applies to lands managed by the State Land Office and it also only applies to future leases and does not apply to tribal, federal, or private lands.
No scientific studies are cited by Garcia Richard or the Land Office. If there WERE studies illustrating such health dangers, you can bet that the Gov. and Legislature would have acted long ago to address current drilling, not just future drilling on SOME lands.
In the grand scheme of things this is likely simply virtue signaling as there undoubtedly few state lands within a mile of a school that have NOT already been leased. But that’s the point. While RGF does not often discuss land commission issues, the fact that New Mexico’s State Land Office generates 90% percent of its revenues from oil and gas, yet the logo is below says it all.
Recently Rio Grande Foundation president visited Silver City and Alamogordo to talk to the Grant County GOP and Alamogordo Rotary. Paul’s talk hit on New Mexico’s economy and its growing reliance on oil and gas (despite protestations to the contrary from New Mexico’s “green” policymakers). Paul also discussed education policy and what COULD be done and IS being done in states from Mississippi to Arizona to improve education.
In Alamogordo he was thrilled to see former state legislator (former and future?) Congresswoman Yvette Herrell.
If your New Mexico-based civic group would like a presentation on New Mexico’s economy and education system please reach out to us at: info@riograndefoundation.org
Thanks also to Bob Flotte and Mike Durler for having Paul in Alamogordo and for the weekly discussions of New Mexico’s economy and politics on Tuesday mornings from 8:25 am to 9.
For several years now Gov. Lujan Grisham has pushed and Democrats in New Mexico’s Legislature have rejected various bills which would impose a “clean fuel standard” on motorists. The effort claims to be about reducing the “carbon intensity” of fuels put in gas tanks, we at the Rio Grande Foundation have noted that the effort would entail a great deal of ethanol being added to our gas.
Sadly, while New Mexico is not a serious corn growing state, our congressional delegation all of whom claim to be environmentalists, remain unwilling to challenge this colossal waste of tax dollars.
Michael Grunwald, a columnist writing in the New York Times has written a column highlighting why adding ethanol to gas is a foolish policy FROM THE ENVIRONMENTALIST perspective. Here are a few choice points:
Nebraska recently became the latest state to enact serious tax cuts (without the benefit of a booming oil and gas industry) The plan reduces the top individual and business income tax rates to 3.99% by tax year 2027 and entirely eliminates state taxes on Social Security benefits a year early in 2024.
Several other states have enacted personal income tax reductions that took effect in 2023: Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New York and North Carolina.
Meanwhile, New Mexico which has become even more dependent on oil and gas in recent years has NOT cut personal income taxes. Instead, the State remains dedicated to growing spending and holding money in reserve for future spending. The following charts are from the Legislative Finance Committee’s recent report.
The Rio Grande Foundation has been New Mexico’s leader in shining light on the “Mississippi miracle” in education. But other media outlets and columnists left, right, and center have also been doing their part. The latest is NY Times columnist Nicholas Kristof.
Here are a few choice quotes from his column: “Mississippi has shown that it is possible to raise standards even in a state ranked dead last in the country in child poverty and hunger and second highest in teen births.” Also, “You cannot use poverty as an excuse.” That’s the most important lesson,” David Deming, Harvard economist and education expert.
Contrast that with NM Senator Mimi Stewart’s “NM doesn’t know how to educate poor students.”
Given New Mexico’s challenges with drugs and alcohol, this quote is pertinent, “I’ve lost too many friends I grew up with to drugs, alcohol and suicide, and as I think about what might have saved their lives, education is high on the list.”
Mississippi has achieved its gains despite ranking 46th in spending per pupil in grades K-12. Its low price tag is one reason Mississippi’s strategy might be replicable in other states. Another is that while education reforms around the country have often been ferociously contentious and involved battles with teachers’ unions, this education revolution in Mississippi unfolded with support from teachers and their union.
Mississippi is a red state. New Mexico is a blue state. Sadly when New Mexico attempted to implement reforms closely resembling Mississippi’s, the unions fought it.
“Perhaps the most important single element of the 2013 legislative package was a test informally called the third-grade gate: Any child who does not pass a reading test at the end of third grade is held back and has to redo the year.”
“In fact, the third-grade gate lit a fire under Mississippi. It injected accountability: Principals, teachers, parents and children themselves were galvanized to ensure that kids actually learned to read. Each child’s progress in reading is carefully monitored, and those who lag — as early as kindergarten and ramping up in second and third grades — are given additional tutoring.”
In fact, the third-grade gate lit a fire under Mississippi. It injected accountability: Principals, teachers, parents and children themselves were galvanized to ensure that kids actually learned to read. Each child’s progress in reading is carefully monitored, and those who lag — as early as kindergarten and ramping up in second and third grades — are given additional tutoring.
Interestingly enough, while Albuquerque Public Schools have received a lot of attention for their bloated budget, it is worth noting that Alamogordo schools plans to spend $153,652,893 to educate approximately 5,600 students next school year. That’s more than $27,000 per-student!
In the kind of one-person power grab that has become all-too-common in recent years and especially with the Biden Administration, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland has instituted a 10 mile barrier around Chaco Canyon Monument. The ban will last for 20 years (unless overturned by a subsequent administration).
The Navajo Nation recently explicitly rejected ANY barrier around the Monument. However as the Journal reports, the nation had in the past supported a 5 mile barrier.
Haaland’s move is expected to cost Navajo members with allotted property rights an estimated $194 million over the next 20 years.
Naturally, New Mexico’s entire Congressional delegation, all of whom are anti-energy radicals, support the 10 mile buffer.
