Errors of Enchantment

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Forget Red State vs. Blue State

04.07.2005

As usual, NM does things differently. Based on a survey of 120,464 people, here is a map showing what words people use when referring to soft-drinks. Casual observation seems to show the Land of the Enchantment is also the land of diversity. In fact, we seem to be the least-homogeneous of all the states. No sheep here!
Thanks to Tyler Cowen for the pointer.

I might be a convert

04.02.2005

Like the Founding Fathers, I have never been extremely enamored of democracy. Usually, when I tell people this, they jump to the assumption that I must prefer autocracy or one of its variants. But you see it’s not the “demos” (people) part of democracy to which I object. Rather, it is the “kratia” (rule) part.
I think the happiest places on earth are those where individual rights reign supreme, and no one–not king, council or even a popular majority–is permitted to invade certain inalienable rights of the individual. To ensure these rights, strong (explicit or implicit) constraints on those in possession of political power are necessary.
In the US, an important aspect of that constraint is, of course, the Constitution. Expressing a common belief of the founders, the chief architect of that document, James Madison, noted that, “…democracies have ever been incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.” He went on to argue, “A republic, by which I mean a government in which the scheme of representation takes place, opens a different prospect and promises the cure for which we are seeking.” (See Federalist 10)
In other words, representative government is one way to keep the majority from running roughshod over the minority. That is why Madison and company gave us, in Franklin’s words, “A republic, if you can keep it.”
In many ways we haven’t. Over the last 100 years, the United States has seen an explosion in direct democracy. In 1897, South Dakota became the first state to adopt the popular initiative and referendum. The former allowed citizens to introduce their own legislation and the latter allowed them to vote on issues originating in the legislature. Over the next 20 years, half of the other states in the union adopted similar measures.
As a (small ‘r’!) republican, I have tended to regard this change as unfortunate. By empowering the majority to make whichever laws it sees fit, I worry that the states have slowly eroded the rights and freedoms individuals.
Despite, these misgivings, I must admit that the empirical evidence appears to be against me. The economist, John Matsusaka, of the University of Southern California, for example has found that while initiatives do “not have a consistent effect on the overall size of state and local government” they do “systematically lead to more decentralized government,” which is generally considered by public choice economists to be more efficient than centralized government. Matsusaka has a forthcoming article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives which declares “Direct Democracy Works.” He has also begun an Institute dedicated to promoting direct democracy.
Other scholars have found similar results. The European economists Bruno Frey and Alois Stutzer studied direct democracy in Switzerland where citizens in some cantons have greater access to instruments of direct democracy than citizens in other cantons. They found that it “systematically and sizably raise[d] self-reported individual well-being.” As an aside, they also found that local autonomy appears to increase happiness.
As an unabashed fan of limited government, I also can’t help but be impressed with initiatives like California’s Prop 13 or Colorado’s Taxpayer Bill or Rights. Perhaps New Mexican’s should consider direct democracy as well?

Cooperation!

03.31.2005

Want to learn a little economics? Check out this informative and entertaining essay by Russ Roberts.

New Mexico Personal Income — good news and bad news

03.29.2005

The BEA has just released per capita personal income statistics for 2004. The bad news: New Mexico still ranks 47th among all states and the District of Columbia. The good news is that we are growing faster than in the past. Our growth of per capita personal income over 10 years ranks 32nd (no longer at or near last).
Why the improvement? Some of it is just plain luck. Our energy sector is enjoying high prices. We have a large government component that is resistant to the national downturn over the past four years.
Former Governor Gary Johnson probably deserves some credit. He mananged to hold the line on taxing and spending for 8 of the 10 years while most other states were not so fortunate. They are coming down to meet us. Unfortunately, that will probably not last because of our current spending binge.

GRT pyramiding: rhetoric versus reality

03.28.2005

The new tax bill does nothing to help beleagured service providers in NM. Read it and weep.


“[NEW MATERIAL] CREDIT–GROSS RECEIPTS TAX–GOVERNMENTAL GROSS RECEIPTS TAX–CERTAIN SALES FOR RESALE.–
A. A taxpayer may claim a credit against gross receipts tax or governmental gross receipts tax due for each reporting period beginning after June 2005 in an amount equal to ten percent of the receipts from selling a service for resale multiplied by:
(1) three and seven hundred seventy-five thousandths percent if the taxpayer’s business location is within a municipality; or
(2) five percent if the taxpayer’s business location is in the unincorporated area of a county.
B. A taxpayer may claim a credit pursuant to Subsection A of this section only if:
(1) the buyer resells the service in the ordinary course of business;
(2) the resale is not subject to the gross receipts tax or the governmental gross receipts tax; and
(3) the buyer delivers to the seller documentation in a form prescribed by the department clarifying that the service is purchased for resale in the ordinary course of business.
C. A credit permitted pursuant to this section does not apply to receipts from selling a service to a governmental entity or to a person who is a prime contractor that operates a facility in New Mexico designated as a national laboratory by and act of congress.”

It’s the Spending, Stupid!

03.28.2005

We now have suffered from 3 sessions of out of control spending. Here is a quick “back of the envelope” calculation of Big Bill’s spending problem. Adjusted for population growth and inflation, at the current rate of increase real spending will have increased by almost $400 million (in 2005 dollars) by the end of his first term. Contrast that with the increase during two terms for Governor Johnson: $360 million (in 2005 dollars). Our governor has managed to squander the opportunity to provide the needed tax relief that will lead NM to prosperity.

Some Perspective on Gasoline Prices

03.27.2005

Check out this great post by Michael Munger at Division of Labour. He describes how gas prices have behaved over time in real (inflation adjusted) terms.
Another way to look gasoline prices is to ask: how much gasoline will an hour of my labor purchase? In 1981 the average New Mexican could obtain 5.2 gallons of gasoline for one hour of labor. This year she could obtain 7.4 gallons of gasoline for one hour of labor, 42% more than in 1981(nominal price data from DOE, nominal wage data from BEA).
We never like it when the price of gasoline, or anything else, rises. The average New Mexican would be much happier being able to purchase 10 gallons of gasoline for one hour of labor, as was the case less than one year ago. But let’s put the price of gasoline in perspective; this is not the end of civilization as we know it.
BTW, government itself is responsible for keeping gasoline prices higher than necessary.

Choice Victory in Arizona

03.25.2005

According to Chuck Muth:
In Arizona, folks who donate money to a scholarship program allowing kids to attend schools other than the government mis-run re-education camps are allowed a tax credit for such donations. The ACLU, naturally, sued to kill off this school choice program, maintaining that it was a violation of the religion provision in the First Amendment.
Yesterday, Federal District Court Judge Earl Carroll tossed out the ACLU lawsuit. The program was defended in court by the libertarian Institute for Justice.

In defense of Bourbon Street

03.23.2005

My colleague at George Mason, Bill Butterfield, (an excellent blogger, incidentally) recently wrote about a conversation we had while strolling down Bourbon Street in the Big Easy.
Bill writes:
“My problem with libertarians is that they overly discount meddlesome preferences. They claim they have none, which is the source of their sense of moral superiority. But meddlesome preferences are preferences just the same, everyone has them and they must be included in any attempt to maximize utility from a policy perspective.”
I would not claim that libertarians are without meddlesome preferences. I, for instance, would love to meddle in a lot of the decisions of others (for example, Fox should not be allowed to cancel “Arrested Development”!).
That said, the libertarian perspective is that we should honor individual rights (more precisely, “negative rights”). To do so, the rest of us are obliged to refrain from certain activities—including meddling.
A few examples: You have a right to life. I, therefore, am obliged not to kill you. You also possess a right to property, so I shouldn’t be allowed to take your iPod.
Though I may have a “meddlesome preference” for invading your rights and taking your property, I have a stronger preference for having my own rights respected and keeping my own property. Being a member of a liberal (libertarian) society, means that I agree to forfeit my right to act on my meddlesome preferences in exchange for living in a society in which no one else is permitted to act on their meddlesome preferences. For most of us, I think the trade-off is well worth it (the rest, of course, are free to join restrictive religious groups or even secular communes).
The economist in me would point out that well-defined, exchangeable rights in property provide entrepreneurs an incentive to take account of the preferences of others. Most people–even libertarians–want to live in neighborhoods without strip clubs. The home developer who appreciates this will make a profit. The developer who sells a unit to Larry Flint’s Strip Club in the middle of a residential neighborhood will not become a wealthy man.
I would much prefer to live in a system based on personal rights which restrain the meddlesome preferences of my fellows than in a system ruled by the meddlesome whims of the median voter.

Why not lease a BMW X-5 SUV for each Belen–Albuquerque commuter?

03.17.2005

From P.J. O’ROURKE: “There are just two problems with mass transit. Nobody uses it, and it costs like hell.”
There is the huge up-front cost. Also, and “less obviously, there’s all the money spent locally keeping local mass transit systems operating.” For example, the Hiawatha Line in Minneapolis is estimated to cost $19 for each ride. At that rate “commuting to work will cost $8,550 a year. If the commuter is earning minimum wage, this leaves about $1,000 a year for food, shelter and clothing. Or, if the city picks up the tab, it could have leased a BMW X-5 SUV for the commuter at about the same price.”
Since the state taxpayers would be picking up the tab for Belen-Albuquerque train riders, let’s do something really cool and lease them BMW’s instead.

Education Freedom and Pre-K

03.16.2005

Thoughts of Micha Gisser on the pre-K debate:
When it suits the political ambitions of the voucher enemies, they will find all the reasons in the world to justify allocating state money to Pre-K as legally “kosher.” They not only support private participation in the Pre-K project, they also justify participation of faith-based preschools. In fact, Dan Pearlman, legal counsel for the state Children, Youth and Families Department, said “faith-based preschools could receive state money if they agree not to use religious programming for the 2 and 1/2 hours the state was footing the bill.” I oppose the Pre-K Bill, but its flip side, if it passes, is that it creates a precedent for passing a voucher bill that will include private and religious schools.

We’ve lost our heritage

03.16.2005

FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“If Congress can employ money indefinitely to the general welfare, and are the sole and supreme judges of the general welfare, they may take the care of religion into their own hands; they may appoint teachers in every State, county and parish and pay them out of their public treasury; they may take into their own hands the education of children, establishing in like manner schools throughout the Union; they may assume the provision of the poor; they may undertake the regulation of all roads other than post-roads; in short, every thing, from the highest object of state legislation down to the most minute object of police, would be thrown under the power of Congress…. Were the power of Congress to be established in the latitude contended for, it would subvert the very foundations, and transmute the very nature of the limited Government established by the people of America.”
– James Madison
Thanks to Mickey Barnett for the pointer.

How does he get away with it?

03.10.2005

You may have heard that our former friends at the Cato Institute (just kidding, Ed) have gushed over Big Bill’s tax cutting and spending restraint. According to Cato’s report card for the governors, “Bill Richardson is, bar none, the best new Democratic governor in the nation–for that matter, he is one of the best new governors of any party.”
But Cato is wrong. The Guv is a net tax increaser and his spending has far exceeded the rate of inflation plus population growth. How did they get it wrong?
On the spending side they used bad data (National Association of State Budget Officers). If you would like to see the truth look here. And the general fund budget is going to grow as least another 6.7% in Fiscal Year 2006. Some spending restraint!
On the tax side they completely missed the stealth increase in the gross receipts tax rate. They also missed other tax and fee increases.
Why is our tax and spend governor getting a free pass from the media and now from one of the best think tanks on the planet?

Forget about the parents – the state knows best!

03.06.2005

I am not making this up. Check out this anti-voucher rant by Diane Denish? And by the way, she is wrong about head start.
I don’t care if she is kinda cute, she and her army of “advocates” will not end up helping the kids.

Voluntarily opting out of “No Child Left Behind?”

03.06.2005

Today from Chuck Muth: “Despite unanimous support in the state House for dumping President Bush’s No Child Left Behind law – and likely passage in the Senate – Utah’s Gov. Jon Huntsman bowed to pressure from the White House and delayed action on the bill for another month…during a special session to be called just to address this issue. Uncle Sam really knows how to twist arms and break legs when he wants to. And Utah taxpayers will pick up the tab for the unnecessary special session.
At the heart of the matter is the simple principle that the federal government should be strictly limited and the states should be responsible for matters such as education. What’s amazing, under the circumstances, is this comment yesterday from federal Education Czar Margaret Spellings: ‘Ultimately, education decisions are made at the local level, and that’s how it should be.’”
But consider what was said 10 days ago. Are you surprised?

Environmental-Production Tradeoffs

03.06.2005

Did you see John’s thoughtful opinion piece in Friday’s Albuquerque Journal (subscription)? “The Valle Vidal is a beautiful section of the Carson National Forest. Substantial natural gas production is being obtained from the adjacent and possibly more beautiful Vermejo Park Ranch. It is believed similar production could be obtained from Valle Vidal.”
Why is it that production, such as drilling for oil or gas, seems easily to coexist with “environmental” uses of land in some cases but not in others? The answer lies in who owns the land. When it is owned privately, its owner has incentive to evaluate production-environmental trade offs. The owner does not want to take excessive risk that the land might be spoiled. The owner simply wants to make best use of the land for its value in the enjoyment of natural beauty, its value in energy production and the threat to its value from environmental harm.
When land is owned by the government, however, these tradeoffs are politicized. Environmental interest groups such as the Sierra Club seem totally unwilling to consider alternative uses or magnitude of risk from environmental harm. These same groups permit production on land when they actually own it.
If you are interested in how ownership incentives improve the natural beauty and enjoyment of land while permitting alternative uses and improving the environment look here or here. Look here for an innovative public land management idea being tried in the Land of Enchantment!

Richardson’s Treatment for Medicaid: More Bleeding

03.01.2005

Things that can’t go on forever, won’t.” Unfortunately, the Guv wants more of the same: “‘We’re talking about people (being hurt by the cuts),’ Richardson said at a news conference at the National Press Club. ‘We’re talking about human beings who are the most vulnerable.’”
I wish he would think about the perverse incentives of Medicaid. Why can’t we give these human beings incentive to help themselves? Why does he insist on such inefficient government intervention?

The actual effects of government intervention and their intended effects

03.01.2005

They just don’t get it. Why do they think “the siren song of collectivist solutions” is going to make things better? There is no empirical evidence either specifically (for example, here or here) or generally to support them. Their wandingerous arguments mainly consist of flippant remarks and personal insults.
I think Milton Friedman best sums up John’s points (subscription) in Capitalism and Freedom:
“…conditions have changed. We now have several decades of experience with government intervention. It is no longer necessary to compare the market as it actually operates and government intervention as it ideally might operate. We can compare the actual to the actual. If we do so, it is clear that the difference between the actual operation of the market and its ideal operation – great though it undoubtedly is – is as nothing compared to the difference between the actual effects of government intervention and their intended effects.”
—Milton Friedman, 1962
Whether it be light rail, pre-K or all the other past and current interventions of government, why do they think the actual effects are going to be anywhere near their indended effects. Aren’t they just engaging in wishful thinking?

Social Security Promises Past

02.25.2005

Thanks to Walter Williams:
“After the first three years — that is to say, beginning in 1940 — you will pay, and your employer will pay, 1.5 cents for each dollar you earn, up to $3,000 a year. … Beginning in 1943, you will pay 2 cents, and so will your employer, for every dollar you earn for the next 3 years. … And finally, beginning in 1949, 12 years from now, you and your employer will each pay 3 cents on each dollar you earn, up to $3,000 a year. … That is the most you will ever pay.”
– 1936 government pamphlet on Social Security

Political Opportunism

02.25.2005

Did you notice from this story (subscription) in yesterday’s Albuquerque Journal that Department of Economic Development Staffers are prohibited from visiting the Roundhouse during the session? “Secretary Rick Homans said the intent of the directive was to ‘make sure we don’t start getting our wires crossed. We don’t think legislators like it when they see a lot of state employees hanging around the Roundhouse.’ He also said the governor’s office ‘has been very clear about us being very disciplined in how we communicate with the Legislature.’”
This is good political strategy for an administration that seems bent on dishing out political favors in the form of corporate welfare. Matt clarified some of the losses from the game of political favor seeking yesterday. You can expect more commentary on corporate welfare and seeking of political favors in the near future.

Railroaded

02.24.2005

Here is an enlightening story of rail mass transit from the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area of North Carolina. Will New Mexico pay attention? Thanks to Craig Newmark for the link.