The following appeared in the Las Cruces Sun News on Sunday, January 22nd, 2023.

In December the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) published a report on New Mexico’s Medicaid program. Whether by design or accident, the report happened to coincide with the 10^th anniversary of New Mexico’s Medicaid expansion. Then-Gov. Susana Martinez decided to accept the “ObamaCare” expansion dollars which, at the time, was 100% federally funded.

The LFC report is full of great information, but it doesn’t attempt to assess whether Medicaid expansion was worthwhile. Unfortunately, when it comes to government programs (especially here in New Mexico) increased spending and good intentions are not often followed by thoughtful assessment of whether the spending has achieved stated goals. Even less common are analyses of whether the new program itself was cost-effective in achieving those goals.

The media covered the LFC’s report which focused mostly on difficulties the Committee’s “secret shoppers” had in making appointments with doctors for Medicaid patients. For example, the LFC found that only 15 percent were able to make an appointment with a primary care doctor. Other doctors were not accepting patients, failed to return phone calls, or were no longer at that phone number. These findings highlight an important problem with Medicaid: having “coverage” (especially from a government welfare program) doesn’t mean you have access to medical care.

Less prominent in the news reports was the fact that the LFC reported that an astonishing 47 percent of all New Mexicans are on the program and a positively mind-blowing 77 percent of births are on Medicaid.

Ample reporting has been done about New Mexico’s medical provider shortage. While there are many reasons for that shortage, our State’s massive Medicaid population and the program’s low reimbursement rates for providers are certainly factors. Any doctor will share their views on the challenges of serving large numbers of Medicaid patients.

New Mexico’s extraordinarily high number of Medicaid recipients is at least partially to blame for the State’s low workforce participation rate. The LFC itself has noted that Medicaid and other government welfare programs, “can disincentivize work through either excessive benefits or reduction of benefits as recipient wages increase.”

Furthermore, the LFC report notes that Medicaid is the largest healthcare payer in New Mexico, and the state has the largest Medicaid program per capita in the country. Between FY19 and FY23, HSD projects total Medicaid spending to increase approximately 56 percent from $5.6 billion to $8.8 billion. In other words, by next fiscal year Medicaid alone will be spending more than New Mexico’s current General Fund budget.

Sadly, the LFC did not take up a detailed discussion of health care outcomes and the impact (or lack thereof) of Medicaid expansion. The LFC did note that, “the state continues to face poor health outcomes overall.” And, even more interestingly, while providing routine medical care for the poor was a stated goal of advocates for expansion, the LFC notes that “Emergency room visits for non-urgent reasons have increased, potentially leading to worse outcomes.”

After a decade of massive federal and state spending growth on Medicaid the LFC does not point to significant positive health care outcomes from Medicaid expansion for New Mexico’s population at large. Given the incredible impact this program has on state and federal budgets, it would be nice to know whether Medicaid expansion is having a positive impact or not. The LFC didn’t even mention the lack of evidence on health outcomes much less call for such research or upbraid the legislature for failing to conduct it already.

The largest and most expensive expansion of the American welfare state in the last 50 years seems to have resulted in bigger government and more government dependency. However, here in New Mexico with the highest percentage of people on Medicaid, evidence of improved health outcomes remains elusive.

Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation. The Rio Grande Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility

Thanks to legal help from the Liberty Justice Center, a non-profit, public interest litigation center, the Rio Grande Foundation and its president Paul Gessing have filed a lawsuit against the City under New Mexico’s “anti-donation clause” over the City’s “donation” of $250,000 of our tax dollars to Planned Parenthood. You can read more about the case here.

“New Mexico’s constitution prevents politicians from using taxpayer funds like their own personal piggy banks,” says Daniel Suhr, managing attorney at the Liberty Justice Center. “Albuquerque’s grant to Planned Parenthood is pure politics, and the state constitution prevents that kind of abuse of taxpayer dollars.”  

“Taxpayers should not be compelled to subsidize Planned Parenthood or any other private group,” said Gessing, who is president of the free-market Rio Grande Foundation. “The anti-donation clause of New Mexico’s constitution is a bulwark for taxpayers against politically motivated earmarks just like this one.”  

Sadly, Albuquerque’s City Council seems to have ignored New Mexico law which clearly states that “Neither the state, nor any county, school district, or municipality … shall directly or indirectly lend or pledge its credit, or make any donation to or in aid of any person, association, or public or private corporation ….”

On this week’s interview Paul talks to his old friend Paul Teller. The two Paul’s go back 20 years when Teller was staff director at the Republican Study Caucus, a conservative coalition of House Republicans in Congress. They discuss how the conservative movement has evolved since then and some of the issues and battles that led us to the current moment.

Paul Teller is now Executive Director of Advancing American Freedom, a non-profit led by former VP Mike Pence. They discuss what the organization is doing to advance its goals which include “energy independence.” Teller is in New Mexico for a variety of meetings while Paul is hopeful for a visit/event with VP Pence.

After recording the show Paul Gessing took Paul Teller to one of New Mexico’s authentic restaurants.

Albuquerque residents who have been around more than a year or two probably remember the disastrous rollout of electric ART buses up and down Central Ave. As noted in numerous media reports:

The vehicles didn’t meet their promised battery charge, which meant they couldn’t manage a full day’s service. There were numerous durability and safety issues, including doors opening unexpectedly, malfunctioning brakes, faulty electric wiring, exposed wires, and overheating batteries.

On top of everything else, the charging system for the batteries was defective, and some buses simply could not be charged. Officials canceled the project within months, and the city ended up suing BYD.

Guess what? It’s happened again. This time, thankfully, we’re not talking about huge, expensive buses that are supposed to take people all over town. Instead, this electric vehicle fail involves the new “train” connecting the Zoo and Botanical Garden. Here’s the full story from KRQE Channel 13.

According to the story, “When they launched the shuttle during the River of Lights, it was hampered by electrical issues and needed a new charger.”

“If all goes well with the new charger, it should be within a matter of weeks. If that doesn’t work, we will actually bring the rep from the manufacturer out here to do some onsite diagnosis.”

Meanwhile Sen. Bill Soules (D-Las Cruces) wants to mandate that 75 percent of state vehicles be EV’s and US Senator Martin Heinrich successfully pushed for massive expansion of the Post Office fleet of electric vehicles.

NM’s legislative session begins at noon. We can talk broadly about what to look for in the upcoming session on a whole host of issues. MLG’s “more of the same” budget is built on extraordinary growth in oil production. Sadly it doesn’t seriously address tax reform.

Paul and Wally briefly discuss the latest in the gas stove “wars.”

New Mexico population loss is a long-term problem.

Left wing legislator introduces legislation to create high speed rail from Denver to Mexico (again). Paul has brand new Rail Runner data highlighting the taxpayer-financed train’s costly failure.

Albuquerque’s “free” bus fare program hasn’t moved the needle on bus ridership in the City either. 

Finally, Paul notes that the City’s community centers were closed not just for MLK Day, but also the Saturday and Sunday before. This highlights the City’s lack of concern for youth who have no inexpensive entertainment options when school is out and these centers are closed.

In a new policy brief which explores the shortage of medical providers in the State of New Mexico, the Rio Grande Foundation digs into an analysis of which areas of medical practice face the most acute shortages and compares New Mexico counties, New Mexico with its neighbors, and also looks at geographical trends regarding the availability of medical providers nationwide.

Forming part one of a two part series on the topic, the document titled, “The Existence and Extent of a Medical Provider Shortage in New Mexico” is an attempt to gain a foothold when it comes to the statistics behind the medical provider shortage.

Among the findings:

In a follow-up report Rio Grande Foundation will provide specific ideas on how policymakers, especially those here in New Mexico, can address the State’s medical provider shortage.

New Mexico Sen. Bill Soules, a Demorat from Las Cruces, plans to push for both a $500,000 study of high speed rail and to push his $1 billion plan to begin construction of the system. Supporters claim polls show support for such a proposal, but  as has been the case throughout the COVID 19 pandemic and beyond, mass transit has continued to lose ridership in New Mexico and around the nation.

The Rail Runner Express DID in fact see a slight rebound from the darkest days of COVID when the system was shut down for months at a time, but remains a far cry from recovering to pre-pandemic numbers and just over one-third of peak ridership back in 2010.

This, despite having been open for all of 2022 AND Gov. Lujan Grisham having reduced fares on the already-heavily-subsidized train by 75% to $2.75 cents for a round-trip to Santa Fe. This is shockingly low even by subsidized transit standards as two trips on the Washington, DC METRO subway system cost at least $4.00. 

On January 1, 2022 the City of Albuquerque began what it calls a “pilot program” offering “free” bus fares for all riders. The program cost an additional $3 million above and beyond the usual cost of the City’s bus system.

Not surprisingly (given national trends in transit ridership), the number of people riding Albuquerque buses remains well below pre-pandemic levels. In fact, even with “free” fares in place ridership was 33 percent lower than it was in 2019.

Ridership numbers were a bit higher than the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, but the trend line remains negative for Albuquerque’s bus system regardless of the “new” ART system and zero-fares.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with celebrating Martin Luther King and his legacy. In fact, we applaud the City of Albuquerque and State of New Mexico for it. But, in a world in which customer service mattered to the City would it really make sense for the City’s community centers to be closed Saturday through Monday? The centers are already closed every Sunday, but for them to be closed both on Saturday AND Monday in observance of the Holiday when kids are at home and looking for things to do is just crazy.

You can bet that private businesses which actually have a financial interest in serving their customers will be open. It would be nice if taxpayer-funded activities for youth at least made some effort.

On this week’s interview show Paul talks to Rep. Ryan Lane (R-Aztec) the incoming House Minority Leader in the New Mexico Legislature. Paul and Ryan talk about what made Ryan get into politics and what he and the minority Republicans hope to accomplish during the impending 2023 legislative session. Specifically, they discuss New Mexico’s massive surplus as well as New Mexico’s emergency statutes which have been used by Gov. Lujan Grisham. for nearly three years.

Like few governors in the history of the United States, New Mexico Gov. Lujan Grisham has benefited from extremely favorable budgetary conditions.  With New Mexico oil production having more than quintupled just since she took office (and showing no signs of slowing) the State has seen massive revenue growth.

If ever there was a state with the means to break free from its moorings at the bottom of all the good lists and the top of all the bad ones, this would be the time. Instead, Gov. Lujan Grisham’s budget is more of the same: massive spending growth and (potentially) some modest tax reforms. It’s not that everything is bad, but it is clear that MLG doesn’t have “the vision thing.” 

At $9.4 billion the budget represents 12 percent spending growth. That’s on top of major increases in recent years.

The plan includes $750 rebates for single filers and $1,500 for joint filers and would total $1 billion. We have discussed the pros and cons of rebates here.

The Gov. has even proposed $500 million in tax relief, in part through cuts in some income tax rates and lower statewide gross receipts taxes on sales and services. The Rio Grande Foundation has consistently pushed for GRT reform rather than small rate reductions. Sadly, it seems that no matter how much money they have available Lujan Grisham and the Democrats just don’t have an interest in reforming New Mexico’s broken tax code.

Tax cuts and even rebates are nice. More spending is inevitable given the numbers. Sadly, none of this will “move the needle”  on New Mexico’s serious economic and social challenges and thus represents a mostly lost opportunity.

Back in April of 2022 the Legislative Finance Committee issued a report stating that due to a drop in enrollment at the District from 89,163 students in 2012-2013 to 71,119 in the current (2022-2023) school year that the district should “rightsize” its physical assets.  That’s a 20% decline over the decade.

Well, the District has submitted its plan to the Board. It’s not surprising that the plan is underwhelming. No layoffs are included nor would any facilities be shut down and sold off. Some would be repurposed with a portion of those being made into pre-K facilities with the passage of Amendment 1.

We share Board Vice President Peggy Muller-Aragón’s belief that “some communities — like on the West Side of the city, where her district is — may benefit from selling schools.”

“If we sold some of those schools … it would bring a possibility of building new neighborhoods in areas where there isn’t space for new neighborhoods,” she said. “We all know how housing is really lacking in our city.” Selling schools and redeveloping them would also have the impact of bringing them onto the property tax rolls and reducing costs of owning and managing so many properties.

However, with massive oil and gas budget surpluses and voters having approved plans to tap the permanent fund for even more spending, the incentive to make hard decisions simply isn’t there. Interestingly, New Mexico’s public schools were among the few states in the West to lose students in public schools beteen 2009 and 2020).

With the announcement earlier this week by the Biden Administration that it was considering banning gas stoves, the public was helpfully reminded by our friends at National Review’s Capital Matters (a publication RGF president Paul Gessing writes for regularly) that he had flagged this issue way back in August 2021.

Wrote Dominic Pino, “With the news that the Biden administration is considering stricter regulation of gas stoves over health and environmental concerns, it’s worth remembering this Capital Matters piece from Paul Gessing in August 2021.

And, while the push to ban gas stoves by Sen. Heinrich and the Biden Administration relies on studies which claim serious health problems associated with gas stoves. The folks at Junkscience.com have debunked one of the prominent anti-gas studies. Here is one quote from the debunking:

The claim that gas stoves are responsible for 12% of childhood asthma – an epidemioogic concept called “attributable risk” – is entirely bogus because epidemiological studies can only be used to associated exposures with disease.

Paul was called “prescient” by one national publication for his analysis regarding natural gas in appliances.

Paul and Wally really enjoyed this recent cartoon in the Albuquerque Journal.

Proposals will be considered in the upcoming session. Should the New Mexico Legislature be “professionalized?” 

A powerful Democrat legislator wants to make New Mexico’s minimum wage $16 an hour AND index it to inflation (HB 25).

MLG backs down (at least for now) on getting government employees back to the office.

A new report highlights New Mexico’s poor ROI from higher education. 

Broadband or government boondoggle? 

John Trever of the Journal always has a perceptive take on the political situation in New Mexico. His latest cartoon from Sunday is as usual spot-on.

A new and highly detailed report from Preston Cooper at The Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity takes a close look at ROI (return on investment) for higher education degrees in each of the 50 states.

The author defines ROI as the amount a student can expect to gain financially from each individual degree. ROI compares the main financial benefit of college — the increase in lifetime income attributable to the degree — to the costs, including tuition and foregone earnings.

It will come as no surprise to readers in this space that New Mexico is among the very worst states in terms of ROI. When adjusted for state spending on higher education (New Mexico spends a lot) New Mexico drops to dead last:

The author points to an emphasis (or lack thereof) on “high value” majors as one important variable (having a lot of low-value majors is also a factor in the negative).

Strength of the job market graduates are moving into is another.

Cost of a college degree including state spending (New Mexico spends a lot and that number is going to grow significantly in the years to come) as well as spending by students and their families  is another variable.

There is a lot in the full report. One bright spot is that the best ROI degrees in New Mexico are various nursing degrees at University of New Mexico.

Bills (mostly amending the NM Constitution) are going to be considered in the upcoming legislative session on whether  to change certain aspects of the Legislature. Ideas include:

• Paying members some kind of salary;
• Extending the length of sessions beyond the current 30/60 days;
• Hiring more paid professional staff.

In summary of the arguments supporting the idea, the Santa Fe New Mexican editorializes, “A professional Legislature, with lawmakers from all walks of life with staff help, would produce better governing.”

We couldn’t agree more that the New Mexico Legislature does a poor job of governing, but voters could change that situation quite easily and they haven’t.   That being said while we’re skeptical about paying them (more) and the merits of longer sessions, anything to shake up the current situation is worth discussing.

Ideally, the legislative pension would be on the chopping block for elimination in favor of increased pay for work done in the here and now.

Ironically enough the New Mexican (a liberal editorial board) uses the COVID 19 situation to justify a more “professional” Legislature but actually highlights our view. They editorialize, “Coronavirus-related emergency orders, for example, came from the governor. There was little consultation with the Legislature — it wasn’t in session most of the pandemic, and emergency action had to be taken. The law authorizing the governor to act in a public health crisis or other emergency didn’t foresee a crisis lasting years rather than days, either.”

On this week’s show Paul talks to Robert Hockaday about his company’s efforts to turn animal waste created in New Mexico’s agriculture industry into a variety of economically-valuable products (everything from fertilizer to CO2).

The Tucumcari Bio-Energy Company would seem to be a win-win for New Mexico’s economy and the environment. What are the obstacles to success? Check out this fascinating conversation.

In the wake of an LFC report stating that New Mexico taxpayers are spending $18 million annually on unused office space, Gov. Lujan Grisham (after the election) decided to require that all state employees return to their offices by the star of 2023.

According to news reports, however, the Gov. has rescinded that requirement. Employees will be required to return NEXT month at the start of February. This is another case of poor leadership from the Gov. COVID (and remote work) has been going on for nearly 3 years now. The Gov. and her team should have figured out who needs to be in the office 5 days a week and who doesn’t (and how to manage them effectively) by now.

Could some state buildings be shuttered and sold off? Should the locations of gov’t buildings be shifted to reduce commute times? How can we make sure remote employees are actually doing their work?

These aren’t easy questions, but they should have been answered long ago. RGF’s Paul Gessing appeared in a story on KOAT Channel 7 to discuss the issue. You can find his segment here and below and the first portion here.

Rep. Christine Chanler (D-Los Alamos) is Chair of the House Tax and Revenue Committee which makes some of the most important economic policies in New Mexico. She has pre-filed a bill in advance of the 2023 session (HB 25) which proposes to take New Mexico’s minimum wage from $12 an hour (it rose to that on January 1) to $16 an hour and index the wage rate to inflation.

Under state law the wage has already risen from $7.50 to $12 an hour since just 2019 (a 60% increase). Now, Chandler proposes to take the rate up ANOTHER 33 percent starting in 2024.

If enacted this bill would give New Mexico the highest minimum wage rate in the entire nation according to NCSL. That’s higher than California, New York, or any other high cost “blue” state despite New Mexico being a relatively low income, low cost of living state. Alas, the economic ignorance of New Mexico’s political class cannot be underestimated.

The 2023 legislative session will begin in just a few weeks. Legislators are positively giddy about all the money they will have to spend. With a 43 percent year-over-year surplus you can expect yet another expansion of New Mexico government at all levels.

As the data below shows, New Mexico’s FY 2023 budget (the one we are currently in) consumes vastly more of the State’s economy than our neighbors.    You can find the source data here as well as below the chart.

Broadband internet access is important in our increasingly connected world. We knew that BEFORE March 2020 and the start of COVID 19. But, government has a poor track record of delivering anything at a reasonable cost and broadband is no different.

Check out this from the Biden Administration regarding broadband projects on tribal lands.

One project offers broadband on the Ak-Chin Indian Community in Arizona to the tune of $3,080,698.37 in order to serve 255 households. That comes to $12,000 spent per household hookup.

Right here in New Mexico $3,742,991.00 is being spent on Santa Clara pueblo to connect 79 households, 15 Tribal offices, 2 Tribal businesses, and 3 so-called “community anchor institutions.” When all is said and done federal taxpayers will spend more than $3.7 million to connect 99 entities at a cost-per-hookup of $37,808.

As federal taxpayers we should all question whether this is a worthwhile use of tax dollars. After all, Elon Musk’s Starlink system is available in the region and at a tiny fraction of the cost. It will likely get much cheaper (and better) as time goes on.

Worse, powerful New Mexico legislators are actively considering pouring “surplus” revenues into broadband access. Government does a terrible job of providing these basic services.

MLG and the other winners from November were sworn in over the New Year’s weekend. We can discuss what she had to say and what 2023 has in store. She has also named a new health secretary from Oregon.

NM population drops in latest Census data.

Ten years on was NM’s Medicaid reform a failure? 

Rep. Jason Harper has released a one-pager on some reforms to NM’s gross receipts tax. Details are fuzzy, but Wally and Paul are optimistic.

In a new National Review column I highlight the ways in which Arizona and Mississippi have outperformed New Mexico without higher spending.

Sen. Heinrich had yet another opinion piece published on his pet issue of “electrification.” 

According to the latest Census figures New Mexico lost 3,333 people between July 2021 and July 2022. No big deal, right? New Mexico is blessed with great weather, is in a fast-growing area of the nation, and has massive revenues from its oil and gas industries and will be just fine, right?

Wrong, as has been the case for decades Americans are “voting with their feet” and following economic freedom.

Well, also according to the Census Bureau New Mexico lost population between July 2020 and July 2021.

Two years has the makings of a trend, but between 2010 and 2019, while New Mexico gained a modest number of people, the overall growth of New Mexico was not in line with the American Southwest, rather it was in line with established, slow-growth states like Kentucky.

You can see recent population information in the charts below: