Gov. Lujan Grisham and the Public Regulation Commission seem to believe that by pushing the closure of San Juan Generating Station until after the end of this summer that they have “taken care of” New Mexico’s electricity reliability issues.

The reality could not be further from the truth. As the Albuquerque Journal and Rio Grande Foundation have BOTH pointed out, getting through this summer does not mean the blackout situation is “solved.” We likely need a natural gas plant based in the Four Corners or elsewhere, but that was rejected by the PRC. As noted, “PNM officials and others criticized the PRC for rejecting PNM’s proposal to build a 280-megawatt “peaking” natural gas plant – which can rapidly ramp up and down as needed – alongside new renewable generation when it ruled on San Juan replacement power in 2020.”

We have heard of no action undertaken by the Lujan Grisham Administration to create viable means of keeping the lights on in the summer of 2023 (when additional base load capacity in the form of Palo Verde will be lost).

UPDATE: In another case of the Rio Grande Foundation being ahead of the curve, this story ran on Thursday, May 12, 2022 detailing the challenges PNM is facing in obtaining solar panels to prepare for Summer of 2023. According to PNM, “Those delays mean that nearly half of the 950 megawatts of solar generation and battery storage that was scheduled to be fully online by early next year now won’t be available until after summer 2023.”

The Gov. is going to ignore the problem and hope voters don’t hold this against her in November, but there is no doubt that New Mexico’s electricity issues are a problem.

On this week’s conversation Paul and Wally discuss the Legislative Finance Committee’s new report on Albuquerque Public Schools. The report has important information for state and school districts across New Mexico.

Student loan forgiveness as Joe Biden has discussed doing would be highly regressive (AND bad policy).

Albuquerque is considering sanctioned homeless camps. Wally and Paul explain why this and other supposed “solutions” are problematic.

Natural gas prices are increasing. Unfortunately natural gas production in the US is declining. 

New poll places MLG among least popular Governors in the US, but still slightly above “water.”

Paul recently interviewed Congresswoman Yvette Herrell and also sat down with the top GOP candidates for Gov. this week on Tipping Point NM.

The Legislative Finance Committee’s new report on Albuquerque Public Schools has numerous points of value. One of the requests made in the recent report is that the District:

“Report to the LFC within a year on how it plans to adjust its facilities footprint to declining enrollment;”

May we recommend the District copy the federal “Base Realignment and Closure” model. According to Wikipedia, the BRAC process has been used to close more than 350 installations five BRAC rounds: 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, and 2005. These five BRAC rounds constitute a combined savings of $12 billion annually. We would argue that BRAC is the single most important money-saving tool the federal government has come up with to date (that’s a low bar for a government that is $28 trillion in debt to be sure…)

The basic concept is that Congress appoints a commission with no political stake in the game and gives them a set of guidelines such as how much money to save and then the commission provides a list of facilities to close based on the mission of the military and overall need. That list goes to an up or down vote of Congress.

APS needs to address its “footprint” according to the report which notes that “Since FY12, APS square footage grew by 21 percent while
enrollment fell by 17 percent.” Also, the report cites a backlog of needed repairs at schools, a problem that could be alleviated by eliminating older, poorly maintained facilities. Those could be turned into in-demand charter schools or sold off for development (and to be put back on the tax rolls).

Rio Grande Foundation president Paul Gessing regularly appears on the Bob Clark Show on KKOB radio (every other Friday). His most recent appearance was Friday, April 29.

The episode elicited “outrage” from City Councilor Pat Davis (below):

I love when @KKOBradio’s Bob Clark gives @RioGrandeFndn free Friday air to spread misinfo to fire up listeners against City Council plans we aren’t planning. Today: turning parks into homeless camps. Paul can read. He shud read the section that says not in parks. #Facts #nmpol

— Pat Davis (@PatDavisNM) April 29, 2022

On this special podcast edition Paul sits down with New Mexico Congresswoman Yvette Herrell. She and Paul discuss redistricting and the changes made to her 2nd Congressional district. Rep. Herrell also discusses current economic, energy, and border security issues facing New Mexico that she is working on in Congress.

You don’t want to miss this special conversation!

According to news reports President Biden is seriously contemplating “forgiving” significant amounts of student loan debt. Currently that sees to be $10,000 per student, but we have no idea if and when this will be done. Already, the payment pause (put in place by President Trump early on in COVID) and retained by Biden despite the pandemic being largely considered over, has canceled approximately $5,500 per borrower. 

This is highly regressive public policy that will disproportionately assist those who are or will be the very highest earners.

Not surprisingly, the very biggest beneficiaries of student loan forgiveness are doctors and lawyers who often go into heavy debt, but have very high incomes. Perhaps more surprising to those who don’t follow politics closely, so called “progressives” are leading the charge for greater debt forgiveness. But, the modern left supports bigger government reflexively without serious consideration of who benefits from their preferred policies (see New Mexico film subsidies).

The recent Legislative Finance Committee report on Albuquerque Public Schools has too much useful information for one post. We commented on some of the broader budgetary findings here.  Here is a chart from the report which illustrates the decline in test results thanks to Gov. Lujan Grisham’s policy of keeping students out of classrooms from March 2020 through March 2021. The test is given at the beginning, middle, and end of the school year in order to track student improvement.

While reading scores (on the left) were somewhat impacted by the lost year math scores (on the right) saw major declines

The following is also worth noting. While many parents and certainly the unions tend to push for smaller class sizes as a goal. The LFC report DOES focus attention on ways to improve student outcomes via coaching and increased use of data for instruction in the classroom. See below:

In the first of what will be a handful of “special” episodes of Tipping Point NM, Paul sits down with congressional candidate Louie Sanchez. Louie is a Republican businessman and entrepreneur running in New Mexico’s revised 1st District with a primary battle to be decided by voters on June 7. Based on recently redrawn maps, this district could be highly competitive for Republicans looking to unseat Democrat Rep. Melanie Stansbury.

While coaxing action from one of the largest bureaucracies in the State of New Mexico will undoubtedly prove to be a challenge for the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) just as it has for us, it is good to see the Legislature’s own analysts coming to some of the same conclusions as we have regarding Albuquerque Public Schools. Their full report is here.

A KRQE Channel 13 report has the highlights with the headline, “State report suggests Albuquerque Public Schools cut costs, combine classes.” But there is A LOT in this report which also notes that “APS has increased spending, despite a decrease in enrolled students. From the fiscal year 2012 to the fiscal year 2021, enrollment declined by 12% while actual spending increased by 23%.” This reflects what we have been saying about the District’s ballooning budget.

Curiously, while THIS report notes that APS “has more teachers than it needs. According to the LFC’s calculations, APS hired 492 too many kindergartens through 12th-grade teachers.” As recently as August of 2021 APS was saying there was a teacher shortage.

There is a lot to unpack in this report, so we will break things up into multiple components.

RGF is now hiring. Find out more.

The media failed to include some important details on a recent CNM story. RGF Paul and Wally correct the record on CNM “cutting” programs.

Speaking of the media getting things wrong, a Politico story gets numerous facts wrong in its attempt to praise New Mexico Democrats on energy.

Friday was Earth Day. Paul and Wally celebrate the very real progress we’ve made on the environment:

Here’s how NM’s K-12 spending compares to our neighbors. Unfortunately results and spending are two very different things.

Her last health order was confusing. As it turns out MLG did extended the health emergency yet again, but until May 16.

A recent court victory on UNM Foundation transparency is a victory for good, open government.

A new study says NM is the most dependent US state on the federal government.

RGF recently had an opinion piece that ran regarding New Mexico’s economy and the unique opportunity the State has to put its economy on track. Even with an income tax Colorado’s economy performs very well thanks in large part to its Taxpayers Bill of Rights. Paul and Wally discuss how Colorado’s recently-announced rebates rival New Mexico’s, but are far superior overall because of TABOR’s systemic approach.

The Albuquerque Journal is half right in its recent editorial that IF they lead to the removal of unsanctioned camps, sanctioned encampments are worth a pilot project. Of course, the problem is that there is absolutely no reason to believe that sanctioned encampments will lead to an improvement in the overall “homeless” situation in the City.

Shockingly a City Council committee has advanced an amendment to the zoning code permitting up to 45 encampments throughout the City.

Based on a combination of logic and past experience, large numbers of encampments will lead to more so-called “homeless” flocking to Albuquerque and an even worse situation than before. Here and Here are a few authors who have written in detail about the issue and its impact on businesses and various parts of the City.

Incentives matter in human behavior (that’s the underlying principle of economics). Solving homelessness is likely beyond the capabilities of government, but unoccupied “tiny homes” continue to sit unused.

As the following video explains, helping those who want help, families, and others who are temporarily unable to find housing is important, but that is not the majority of the problem. Enforcement of property rights, not further erosion of our public spaces is necessary.

Don’t look now, but an increasing number of news stories are predicting rapidly-rising natural gas prices. Natural gas generates approximately 20% of New Mexico’s electricity and remains one of the best options for inexpensive, reliable, rather green (and New Mexico-produced) electricity.

That doesn’t include home heating and cooking.

According to the article linked above and here from Yahoo News natural gas prices are rising due in part to “green” policies.

In the past, when natural gas became too expensive, power-plant owners would just dial down some of their gas-fired generators and turn up those burning coal, effectively putting a ceiling on demand and preventing prices from skyrocketing. But utilities’ move away from coal is shrinking inventories and drastically reducing their ability to pivot from gas, leaving the market more vulnerable to wild moves. “There is a path to some crazy prices,” said Paul Phillips, senior strategist at Uplift Energy Strategy in Denver.

See the chart below. As is the case when energy prices rise, the State’s budget will benefit, but energy consumers in New Mexico and beyond will suffer.

The Rio Grande Foundation has long advocated for legislation along the lines of Colorado’s Taxpayers Bill of Rights. The gist of the law is that it constitutionally limits government spending to the combined rates of inflation and population growth AT ALL LEVELS of government. Anything above that must be approved by the voters as must any tax or fee increase.

Finally, if revenues come in at a higher rate than approved under TABOR, the money must be refunded to taxpayers. A few years ago we at RGF analyzed the law based on how a similar one might impact New Mexico. We found that every man, woman, and child would have received an astonishing $786 back in 2019.

Given New Mexico’s massive budget surplus (driven largely by record oil production AND prices), spending went up more than $1 billion in the most recent budget. New Mexicans also saw tax reductions and rebates passed in the special session. Those are all good things, but Colorado’s law provides predictable, steady spending growth so spending and taxes don’t get out of control.

The following data shows how personal incomes in Colorado have far outpaced those in New Mexico in recent years. More information about details of TABOR can be found here. The law came into effect in 1992.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, even prior to the most recent spending boost (taking effect in FY 23), New Mexico government was MUCH larger than Colorado’s.

An important decision just came down from a three-judge New Mexico Court of Appeals panel with the opinion written by Judge Megan Duffy in a case the Rio Grande Foundation has been tracking for several years.

The judge ruled that records generated by UNM’s Foundation are indeed public. This is an interesting case for Rio Grande Foundation because:

1) We strongly believe in donor privacy; but

2) UNM’s Foundation operates as an arm of a publicly-funded university. The ability to shift activities from a public to a private wing of the University is an attractive tool for keeping information that SHOULD be public, private instead.

3) There is nothing wrong with UNM having a foundation arm, but when you are dealing with a combination of public and private money, you can’t skirt the law by hiding it within the Foundation;

4) The Rio Grande Foundation does not accept taxpayer funding.

You can listen to an interview RGF’s president did with Daniel Libit, the man behind the lawsuit here.

Despite all the doom and gloom from the media and radical environmentalists, the environment is in fact improving in many significant ways. Some of the data is below from Alex Epstein.

And, regardless of the CO2 emission issue (Epstein shows a vast increase over a longer term), the chart below that highlights the reduction in US CO2 emissions in recent years. Yes, the chart ends in 2020 which was a massive drop, but while emissions rebounded slightly in 2021  from pandemic lows (Biden’s first year in office) the trend continues downward.

On this week’s interview Paul sits down with Rodney Scott, a retired chief of the US Border Patrol and Luna County rancher Russell Johnson.

Although the Rio Grande Foundation does not work directly on border policy issues, there is no question that what happens at the border impacts New Mexicans and is also newsworthy nowadays. This conversation separates border security from immigration policy while diving into several of the important issues facing the United States (and especially those living along the border) when it comes to border policy.

New Mexico is widely-recognized in study after study as among the very most federally-dependent states in the nation. A recent Wallethub report puts us at 6th, but an interesting report from Smart Asset ranks New Mexico at the VERY top in terms of overall federal dependence.

You can see that while not at the top in ALL categories, New Mexico’s percent of workforce employed by the Feds is higher than any state besides Hawaii or Virginia/Maryland which naturally have numerous federal employees. Not surprisingly New Mexico’s federal employee wages are also considerably higher than local private sector dollars.

To many the federal jobs and money flowing into New Mexico are an unmitigated positive, but it certainly hasn’t led to the broad-based wealth and prosperity one might expect or hope for. And, every federal dollar spent no matter how important is either taxed away from the private sector or added to the massive, fast-growing federal debt.

In a story that appeared in the Albuquerque Journal recently the reporter made it sound like Central New Mexico Community College (CNM) was going to be “eliminating” their trucker and jewelry training programs.

In interviews and other discussions, we at the Rio Grande Foundation expressed concern that while the State pushes for “free” college CNM was eliminating basic vocational programs. After doing some research and meeting with someone knowledgeable about the situation at CNM, it turns out that the “elimination” of these programs is simply spin being applied (and readily picked up by the media) pushed by the CNM union.

CNM is simply proposing to reduce costs by ending these two programs as college courses receiving credits through the College and replacing them with noncredit programs focused solely on job skills development, licensing and certification in a cost effective time frame. It strikes us as unnecessary to have EVER had in place college credit programs for these two industries as trucking companies care about commercial drivers licenses and jewelers care about skills, not college credits.

At RGF we have long considered CNM and its focus on vocational learning as one of the bright spots in New Mexico’s otherwise mediocre and bloated higher education system. We are glad the media and by extension WE were wrong.

In the first of what will be a handful of “special” episodes of Tipping Point NM, Paul sits down with congressional candidate Louie Sanchez. Louie is a Republican businessman and entrepreneur running in New Mexico’s revised 1st District with a primary battle to be decided by voters on June 7. Based on recently redrawn maps, this district could be highly competitive for Republicans looking to unseat Democrat Rep. Melanie Stansbury.

College is “free” but CNM is pushing to eliminate trade education for truck drivers and jewelry. Paul and Wally wonder if this means a shift away from vocational learning at New Mexico’s “free” institutes of higher education.

The Biden Administration has decided to increase royalties and scaled back leases on federal lands including an 80% reduction in leases in New Mexico.  The federal and state pushes for ethanol are the wrong way to address gas prices.

The Legislature denied funding for it, but MLG announced a plan to spend $500,000 for fare reduction on the Rail Runner anyway. Paul and Wally briefly comment on the fact that at least Rail Runner riders won’t need to wear masks thanks to a Trump-appointed federal judge. Nonetheless, MLG extended New Mexico’s health emergency yet again to April 30.

RGF president Paul Gessing recently spoke to KOAT for a story on RGF’s successful public records suit and the constant flow of tax dollar payments for denied public records.

Union backed Albuquerque Mayor Keller has vetoed a bill that would have restored market forces to public works projects.

RGF has an upcoming luncheon speaker who will discuss vaccine mandates.

When New Mexico is not being ignored entirely by the national media, they usually just get things completely wrong. This is often the case with what “conservative” outlets like Fox News, but since most media are liberal, it happens more often from the left. Take this Politico piece.

The gist of the article is that New Mexico Democrats have somehow figured out that supporting an “all of the above” energy strategy is a key to political success. But even New Mexico Democrats praised in the article have to be shaking their heads at some of the statements contained within. Here are a few of the worst:

1) The entire premise: while MLG has not attacked New Mexico’s revenue source head-on, she is hardly takes an “all of the above” position on energy and routinely attacks the industry through absurd policies like the Clean Fuel Standard, Methane rules, and electric vehicle mandates (to name a few).

2) Rep. Angelica Rubio, “represents an oil patch district in the Permian Basin.” FALSE!!! Rubio, among the most left-wing members of the New Mexico Legislature, represents Las Cruces. Everyone in New Mexico knows that liberal Las Cruces is well outside the Permian Basin.

3) Far from working to “find middle ground” as Rubio claims, she signed a letter from anti-oil-and-gas liberal legislators in SUPPORT of the Biden Administration’s permitting moratorium despite its impact on New Mexico.

4) Sen. Martin Heinrich who takes a backseat to no one in his environmental radicalism is quoted downplaying solar jobs. The story quotes him as saying, “Now, I love those jobs, but to be honest, those rooftop jobs, they’re not in my view a benefit because they’re going to replace a job for an [oil company] operating engineer. They’re not.” This IS a robustly sane statement, but Heinrich is NOT some kind of moderate. He’s pushing very hard to eliminate natural gas in home cooking and heating for example.

The article DOES go on to have some useful quotes from NMOGA and Gov. candidate Mark Ronchetti along with some anti-energy statements from environmental groups. It is interesting for some of the things it gets right as well as the big things it gets wrong.

The biggest thing it ignores is how long Democrats have controlled the New Mexico Legislature and the fact that under their “leadership” New Mexico is dead last in numerous rankings of well-being. Dependency on oil and gas absent a thriving private sector economy should hardly result in praise for Democrats’ willingness to tolerate the industry.

How does New Mexico spending on public education stack up against its neighbors? While the Rio Grande Foundation has no love for the National Education Association union which attempts to thwart reform at every turn, they do have a useful report called “Rankings and Estimates.”

The data are not “brand new,” unfortunately as the latest available information is from 2019-2020, but as the data below highlight, New Mexico’s per-student spending (even before the recent influx of money) exceeds each of its neighbors. Alas, one cannot say the same for results.

Furthermore, according to the NEA report New Mexico’s per-pupil spending is 24th-highest nationally.

Rio Grande Foundation Job Opportunity

Director of Communications/Marketing

This position is ideal for young conservative/libertarian minded professionals who are looking to break into the world of state level free market policy work.

Must haves include: familiarity with WordPress design and site maintenance and MailChimp, basic graphic design knowledge, solid writing skills, and overall strong communications skills;

Must be willing to learn New Mexico public policy and learn new skills working in office located in Downtown Albuquerque.

Pay and benefits commensurate with skills but salary would start at $50,000 including health and retirement.

Send cover letter and resume to Paul Gessing, President, Rio Grande Foundation: info@riograndefoundation.org