According to a new report from Smart Asset, New Mexico is among the states losing 35 year olds who earn $100,000 or more. Neighboring states including Colorado, Texas, Arizona, and Utah were among the most popular for those “rich” young professionals while Oklahoma was a net loser as well. Seven of the nine zero income tax states (Alaska and Wyoming being the exceptions) saw net additions of young people.

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There are few bad ideas that fail to gain traction in New Mexico, especially with big-city liberal politicians, but (thankfully), rent control has been rejected by Albuquerque’s City Council and by a 7-2 vote no less. Only Fiebelkorn and Benton supported it.

Swedish economist Assar Lindbeck asserted, “In many cases rent control appears to be the most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city—except for bombing.” Economists from across the political spectrum argue that rent control is harmful. And, while the Albuquerque measure was merely a memorial, it would have been harmful had it passed. Kudos to the five councilors who opposed this ill-advised measure.

The Rio Grande Foundation tends to not focus on New Mexico’s Land Commissioner very much. They have one primary job which is to keep the revenue from oil and gas on state lands flowing to beneficiaries including the poor-performing K-12 school system. Thus, our philosophy on Land Commissioner has been hands off as commissioners have usually adhered to a revenue maximization philosophy.

Until now.  According to the Albuquerque Journal, “Garcia Richard said she would support a temporary moratorium on fracking permits for the oil industry on state trust land as a way to force the Legislature to boost New Mexico royalty rates to match Texas’ rates, an idea that has stalled in recent sessions at the Roundhouse.” Notably, Texas has the highest royalty rates, so Garcia Richard is hoping to match the highest rate, not a middle-ground royalty rate at 25%. In New Mexico, the royalty rate for production on state lands is as high as 20% and royalties in the Permian Basin spanning Texas-New Mexico and North Dakota Bakken Basin range from 18–20% while many western states charge royalties of 16.67 percent.

On this week’s interview Paul talks to Brian Domitrovic a scholar with the Laffer Institute about his new book, “Taxes Have Consequences: the definitive history of the income tax on the economy.”

John Kiesling is New Mexico’s own version of “Weird Al” Yankovich. Here’s his latest satirical parody of Alan Menken’s “Friend Like Me,” from “Aladdin,” about our high-handed, condescending, would-be ruler.

At the start of COVID, Kiesling did a hilarious parody of MLG’s power-hungry form of “leadership.”

John is not just a talented parody songwriter. He had a good grasp on the science early on. Our podcast with him was recorded in August of 2020.

On this week’s conversation Paul and Wally note that early voting at county clerks offices kicks off today. Early in-person voting begins on October 22nd. In order to inform people about some of the items on the ballot they do a “deep dive” into important issues on the ballot that average New Mexicans may not know or understand the implications of. If you or your friends and family members have questions about everything from judges to bond measures to constitutional amendments, this is YOUR episode!

Paul specifically wants voters to beware of Amendment 2. 

Some interesting migration trends are uncovered in the Allied Van Lines report (such as where Californians are moving). 

New Mexico Democrats are talking seriously about raising taxes in January. Paul and Wally discuss.

KRQE Channel 13 offers the following “fact check” regarding the education agendas of Mark Ronchetti and Michelle Lujan Grisham. We have previously stated that MLG has no plan for education. Ronchetti’s plan is highly detailed and can be found here.  MLG’s campaign website discusses education here.

KRQE largely reiterates the claims made by Ronchetti about the myriad failures of the Lujan Grisham Administration in the area of education. When KRQE asks MLG’s campaign about her plans for education Delaney Corcoran is quoted as saying, “the Governor does have a plan, the plan is to continue making investments in education across the state.”

Fair enough. As the Albuquerque Journal noted in a recent editorial, despite MLG increasing spending by 1/3rd ($1 billion in a few short years) New Mexico has not “moved the needle” on education results.  So, MLG has a “plan,” but that plan has already been tried AND FAILED. Continuing to spend more money is not much of a plan, right? FACT CHECK: TRUE

RGF’s president Paul Gessing sat down with KOAT Channel 7 to discuss two of the constitutional amendments that will be on New Mexicans’ ballots when they vote this fall.

Constitutional Amendment 1 would tap into New Mexico’s Land Grant Permanent Fund. Gessing’s appearance is toward the end of the clip.

A separate KOAT segment addressed Amendment 2 which would allow the Legislature to spend taxpayer dollars on infrastructure projects that would expressly benefit private interests.  Here is our detailed assessment of Amendment 2.

The Commonwealth Foundation is the larger, Pennsylvania-based version of the Rio Grande Foundation, a free market think tank.

They recently produced a study (you can read it here) of state public bargaining laws. With the 2018 Janus decision by the US Supreme Court to end forced unionism for government workers, government employees have experienced an undisputed increase in freedom, but “Right to Work” is  one of many state-level laws impacting worker freedom. Unfortunately (but unsurprisingly) New Mexico’s Democratic dominance has led to policies that are VERY beneficial to government employee unions.

The Commonwealth Foundation gives New Mexico a “D-” while UT, OK, and CO all achieve “C” scores. AZ is a “B” and TX is “A+.” In addition to labor laws written in favor of government unions New Mexico has bloated government which further gives the unions power and consumes human resources that could otherwise be used in the private sector.

If you’re looking for the merits and demerits of the various candidates for governor and attorney general, there are plenty of other posts on this page or podcasts at TippingPointNM.com. We’re here to discuss the so-called “down-ballot” or lower-profile issues before voters this November. In person early voting at the county clerk’s office begins Tuesday, October 11 while early voting sites open on Saturday, October 22nd.

JUDGES: without putting too fine a point on it, New Mexico’s judiciary is in need of a massive overhaul. It is one of the primary bodies responsible for the States horrendous crime problems. Currently, New Mexico’s Supreme Court is 100% Democrat with 4 of the 5 having been nominated by Gov. Lujan Grisham (only Michael Vigil who was elected in 2018 and faces retention this election was NOT appointed by MLG).

There are numerous other Metro Court and other positions, most of which are unopposed, but there are retention elections and those are VERY IMPORTANT. In New Mexico a judge must must receive at least 57% of the vote. So, it IS possible for voters outraged by deteriorating public safety conditions to push back against the judiciary in hopes of getting better judges on the bench.

In terms of constitutional amendments Amendment 1 would tap into New Mexico’s Land Grant Permanent Fund to create a host of early childhood programs, but most significantly universal pre-K. RGF has written extensively on the serious problems with this proposal here and here (for starters).

Amendment 2 would allow the Legislature to fund infrastructure projects for PRIVATE benefit. We have serious concerns about this proposal.

Amendment 3 would require that an appointed judge shall be up for election at the first general election one year after being appointed. At the election, the winning candidate would serve the remainder of the term in effect. This amendment actually gives nominated judges an opportunity to consolidate control over their seat before appearing on the ballot which may be of concern.

Bernalillo County voters are being asked to amend the County charter. After some difficulty finding out exactly what changes would be made we reached out to the County. You can read for yourself here what it would do (this information is not on the actual ballot). We have no problem with the amendment.

As a general rule we recommend voting against ALL bonds, not because all of them are bad or wasteful, but because local voters have a tendency to blindly vote YES on nearly all bonds. Bonds are simply government debt which must be paid off by your property tax dollars. Broadly speaking voters should be more careful about these, but bonds are almost never voted down at least in the Albuquerque metro area (this may not be the case in other areas of the State, so vote accordingly).

The latest Allied Van Lines report which highlights where people are moving to and from is out. You can see the map below. All six of the states Americans moved TO in great numbers were “red” states with 3 of the 6 most popular lacking a personal income tax (Texas, Tennessee, and Florida).

On the other hand, all six states that saw the most outbound traffic were “blue” states (CA, IL, MI, PA, NY, NJ, and MD).

The same report highlighted the number of Californians leaving their state (a few data points below). For better or worse, New Mexico is NOT a leading destination for Californians. Four of the five cities that ARE destinations for Californians are in zero-income tax states. The other is Phoenix, AZ.

• In 2021, California was the second-highest outbound state (66% of moves in California were outbound)
• California has been in the top 10 outbound states for the last 5 years
• Los Angeles was the 5th top outbound city (out of the entire country)

On this week’s interview Paul talks to Lindsey Burke, PhD of the Heritage Foundation. Lindsey has been a long-time researcher and advocate for education choice and she and her team recently published the Heritage Foundation’s “Education Freedom Report Card.” Paul and Lindsey discuss New Mexico’s performance on the Index and what could be done to improve it. Also, they discuss the policies that make some states leaders in educational freedom and what “blue” states like New Mexico are or can do to improve educational freedom.

The map below (from the report) contains a link to the report and there is a link above as well.

Despite having no less than $2.5 billion in surplus revenue next year when the Legislature convenes, New Mexico Democrats are making noise about raising taxes on alcohol.

Currently, New Mexico’s alcohol taxes are right in the middle when it comes to US states. So, why would legislators want to raise taxes? A report from New Mexico Indepth released earlier this year included all manner of harrowing statistics including those below.

Various studies purport to show that raising alcohol taxes is the best way to address alcohol abuse, but higher taxes are a blunt instrument indeed. It would seem that before penalizing ALL alcohol users in New Mexico for the behavior of a few that we might want some analysis of WHY New Mexico has such serious alcohol problems in the first place.

Clearly, New Mexico’s overall taxes on alcohol which are right in the middle of the pack don’t explain the situation. Neighboring Colorado and Texas have the 2nd and 3rd lowest tax burdens on alcohol in the nation and are not experiencing the same problems as New Mexico (according to the study).

KOB TV Debate wrap up and discussion;

Further breakdown of the ABQ Journal responses of both candidates.

MLG rescinds order relating to public health used in Ronchetti ad.

RGF makes news due to Governor candidate Mark Ronchetti’s visit to UPS facility. RGF weighs in.

A local Starbucks votes to unionize.

There is zero evidence the recent hurricane to hit Florida is the result of global warming; In fact, the end of August saw the development of NO named storms. There were no tropical storms or hurricanes in the month of August in 1961 (pre-satellite era) and 1997.

Credit where credit is due to the New Energy Economy on PNM/Avangrid merger.

As NM shuts down coal plants to defeat climate change, China builds MUCH more.

California Air Resources Board to prohibit natural gas heaters/furnaces (will MLG follow suit if elected?).

Most of the attention on non-candidate measures on this fall’s ballot will be on the plan to tap one of New Mexico’s oil and gas-generated “permanent funds” to provide pre-K and other early childhood programs.

But, voters should be aware of and concerned over proposed Amendment 2 on their ballots.

If adopted, the Amendment would add (another) exception to the state’s anti-donation clause to authorize the Legislature to appropriate state funds for infrastructure that provides “essential services.” The amendment defines essential services as “infrastructure that allows internet, energy, water, wastewater or other services provided by law.”

The State already provides various subsidies for broadband and other “utilities,” but the anti-donation clause simply prohibits government paying to directly provide such services to people. In other words, if adopted, there is no limit on who taxpayer dollars could be handed over to and there is very little restricting what could be done with those dollars. For example, your tax money could be used to build a road or water line on private property, with the road and water line then owned by the property owner, not the state.

You can read additional pro/con arguments (on all three amendments) provided by the Legislature here. Here is an article from the Albuquerque Journal.

Today, the global cartel (OPEC) that controls much of the world’s oil production, decided to reduce oil production (contrary to Biden Administration wishes). OPEC is notorious for member states “cheating” on these limits, but prices DID jump on Wednesday meaning that this is a credible reduction in OPEC production.

Here’s what it all means:

1) After declining for several months, it is unlikely that gas prices will drop before the election. In fact, they could rise which is a political liability for the Biden Administration and Democrats.

2) OPEC cutting production further reinforces New Mexico’s already-strong surplus for the upcoming legislative session. While New Mexico’s oil boom is driven by production increases, recent price declines COULD have started to bite into that $2.5 billion surplus. That is unlikely to happen unless the US/global economy.

3) As we noted recently, while the Biden Administration has attempted to take credit for recent price reductions at the pump, oil and gas permitting on federal lands has been virtually nil. This could have longer term implications for New Mexico which is more dependent than any other state on federal leasing.

Recently, New Mexico GOP candidate Mark Ronchetti spoke to a group of United Parcel Service (UPS) workers at a facility in Rio Rancho. This is usually the kind of thing that happens dozens or hundreds of times throughout a given campaign, but (as I note in the story above), Ronchetti was treading into “enemy” territory.

Why is that? UPS is a heavily unionized company and unions jealously attempt to protect those votes on behalf of the Democratic Party. This is true despite the fact that union members often vote for non-Democrats. NPR commented during the 2016 cycle about Donald Trump’s support among Teamsters.

Another interesting article (see chart below) from a pro-union website show union members to be MORE Republican than other union-oriented households. Naturally, the Teamsters brass was NOT amused that their memberships had a chance to hear a non-Democrat candidate share his message, but winning political races involves reaching out to those who don’t automatically plan to vote for you.

Union political activity contradicting their members’ views was a key issue in the Janus v. AFSCME Supreme Court decision and it should drive states to enact Right to Work laws nationwide.

A few days ago, New Mexico’s radical leftist Senator (again) hopped on his favorite hobby horse (complete electrification of your home through the elimination of things like gas water heaters and furnaces.

You can see his email below. But, the BIG news this week is California (fresh off banning gasoline cars despite not having enough electricity to keep the lights on) is now following Heinrich’s lead by banning natural gas water heaters and furnaces. This is being done (as was the gasoline car ban) by an unelected board.

Would MLG do the same thing here if reelected? One hopes this might be a topic of discussion in one of these debates. The New Mexico media seem patently unwilling to ask her these questions or where were are going to get the electricity from.

On this week’s interview Paul sits down with Casey and Micayle Petersen. Together they are the founders of Freedom Families United. At the outset Paul and Casey discuss his term at Sandia National Lab during which he blew the whistle on Critical Race Theory indoctrination. He ultimately left the Lab due to its COVID vaccine mandate.

Now, the couple has created Freedom Families United which works to unite pro-freedom families and educate them on the forces undermining individual liberty in New Mexico and around the nation.

RGF’s Paul Gessing recently had the chance to sit down with two experts in the oil and gas industry who have different takes on plans (put forth by Gov. Lujan Grisham and supported by some in the Legislature and some in industry) for hydrogen and hydrogen hubs.

We at the Rio Grande Foundation had lots of questions and wanted to hear both sides of the issue. You can do the same with the interviews posted below. In support is George Sharpe of Merrion Oil and Gas based in Farmington.

In opposition is Larry Scott a Republican legislator and industry executive from Hobbs.

When it comes to issues surrounding oil and gas, the Rio Grande Foundation supports the industry. This is NOT because of the billions it provides our State every year or even the thousands of jobs it creates. We support the industry because we support human flourishing and energy allows humanity to flourish.

So, we support policies that allow energy development throughout the nation and even the world, including drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), under the Department of Interior, is currently collecting comments on a proposed lease sale (environmental groups are opposed to any new sales).

Click here for details and if you’d like to comment, please do (no later than October 6, 2022). Rio Grande Foundation’s comments can be found below (they are also available on BOEM’s website: l8n-a2s4-dvbe.

The following comments are on behalf of the Rio Grande Foundation, a public policy research organization based in Albuquerque, NM and working to make New Mexico more economically prosperous.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) recently released plans for offshore energy development for the next five years. Currently, BOEM’s plan only includes 10 lease sales over a 5-year period in the Gulf of Mexico and does NOT guarantee those sales will take place.

BOEM does not have an active leasing plan for the Gulf of Mexico and will be unable to hold any lease sales until the new plan is finalized. This will leave a multi-year gap in lease sales in the Gulf. The proposed plan needs to be finalized ASAP to help protect consumers and businesses from high energy prices!

The Gulf of Mexico produces 15% of our nation’s energy. The Rio Grande Foundation supports BOEM’s planned lease sale specifically and encourages opening the Gulf to ensure energy prices stay affordable for consumers.

New Mexico is the nation’s 2^nd-biggest oil producing state. Nearly half of that oil is produced on federally managed land. So, while a New Mexican might be expected to oppose drilling in the Gulf in hopes of making New Mexico’s product more valuable, the reality is that we truly ARE all in this together. The federal government needs to expand, not contract, the ability of energy producers to bring oil and gas to Americans and potentially Western European nations as well who are dealing with shortages driven by Russia’s invasion.

Here are a few facts:

• In FY2021, revenues totaled $4.1 Billion from OCS oil and gas activities.
• If drilling in the Gulf is stopped, western states like New Mexico are likely to see a decline in lease sales on federal lands located within the state in the future; negatively impacting our state’s budget and infrastructure funding.
• Oil produced in the Gulf of Mexico is some of the least carbon intensive oil produce anywhere in the world and will play a key role in reducing global carbon emissions.
• The Gulf of Mexico funds conservation efforts across the country, including our national parks.
• Producing American oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico helps protect consumers from instability in global markets.
• If drilling in the Gulf is stopped, western states like New Mexico are likely to see a decline in lease sales on federal lands located within the state in the future; negatively impacting our state’s budget and infrastructure funding.

Energy abundance is critical to our way of life. The Gulf of Mexico is a big part of America’s energy picture. I urge you to approve this plan.

We have MASSIVE policy disagreements with New Energy Economy (NEE) which self-describes as a “radical” environmental group.

But, they deserve praise for filing a complaint with New Mexico’s Public Regulation Commission over PNM’s sudden move to start co-branding with Avangrid which began a few months back and was noticed and discussed by RGF in early August. While RGF fully expects the merger (denied by the PRC) to be approved once Gov. Lujan Grisham gets to nominate her own PRC members under New Mexico’s new constitutional amendment, we (like NEE) question how the utility has been co-branding with a purchaser that has thus far been denied.

How will this play out? We have no idea? Does this mean RGF and NEE have some kind of “meeting of the minds?” Hardly. These folks (like us) opposed Lujan Grisham’s 2019 Energy Transition Act as well, but we HARDLY see eye-to-eye.

Here is part two of our analysis (find part one here) of the two main gubernatorial candidates’ answers to questions posed by the Albuquerque Journal in their questionnaire: 

10) Do you support or oppose the proposed constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would withdraw more money from the state’s permanent school fund to increase funding for early childhood services and K-12 education?

MLG: Yes.

Ronchetti: Given the extraordinary revenues coming to New Mexico, and the now-massive (and still growing) early childhood trust fund, it’s not necessary to raid the permanent fund too.

RGF’s take: A few aspects of this amendment like home visits could have positive impacts, but a bulk of this money will be used in wasteful and unaccountable ways.

11. Do you support requiring the state achieve net-zero emissions by 2050?

MLG: Yes.

Ronchetti: No.

RGF’s take: Net-zero is an astonishingly bad public policy concept. The idea is to make New Mexico’s carbon emissions zero by 2050. If undertaken this would destroy New Mexico’s economy while doing nothing at all for the climate. According to the McKinsey Consulting firm, if enacted on a global basis net-zero would require $9.2 trillion in annual average spending on physical assets. That increase is equivalent to half of global corporate profits and one-quarter of total tax revenue in 2020.

This is a foolhardy effort especially when one considers that China continues to build coal power plants and increase its already world-leading CO2 emissions.

12. Do you believe changes should be made to the emergency powers held by a governor during a pandemic or other time of crisis.

MLG: No.

Ronchetti: Yes.

RGF’s take: More than 900 days after she declared COVID 19 an emergency in March of 2020 New Mexico remains in an emergency. No one is saying that for some period of time (30 days perhaps) that a governor shouldn’t have emergency powers, but we are LONG past any realistic definition of an emergency.

13. Would you support a merit-based evaluation system to determine how the state spends its capital outlay funding?

MLG: No answer.

Ronchetti: Yes.

RGF’s take: New Mexico’s capital outlay process is often ridiculed as taking a “Christmas Tree” approach to handing out money. All manner of groups supporting good government agree that New Mexico’s current system is broken.

It would be funny if it weren’t so stupid. The San Juan Generating Station, thanks to Gov. Lujan Grisham’s 2019 Energy Transition Act, will shut down on Friday (September 30). That is 555 MegaWatts of relatively clean coal-fired power (thanks to scrubbers installed just a few years ago) that New Mexico will lose (and struggle to replace) by next summer.

If you think that will have any impact whatsoever on climate change, you can forget about it. Here is a news report out of China:

China approved 15 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity and another 30 million tonnes of coal-based iron-making capacity in the first half of this year.

That’s an investment of $26-33 billion in coal power and steel sectors in the first six months of this year ALONE! And, if you are confused (as we were) about how many MegaWatts are in a GigaWatt, those 555 MW being eliminated in New Mexico come to .555 of one GW (click for Google’s handy calculator). So, in New Mexico we are closing about 1/30th of the generating capacity that China is bringing online IN JUST SIX MONTHS. Want to bet which country’s power plants are cleaner?