On this week’s podcast conversation, Paul and Wally start with a bunch of COVID information. First, they discuss a report from the CDC which says kids wearing masks doesn’t work. Former podcast guest David Clements has been fired from NMSU for being unwilling to get vaccine/wear mask in the classroom. MLG’s State Fair vaccine policies generate frustration and outrage.

In a small bit of good news, the livestock exhibits are relocating to Roswell. Finally, there was another round of protests on vaccine/mask mandates, this one focused on health care & public workers. Finally, one ABQ pastor “gets it” on masking/vaccines.

Wally and Paul discuss mask policies for school kids by state. 

NM has “more money than legislators know what to do with.”

The Rio Grande Foundation succeeded (barely) in advocating for the defeat of the 2019 “Democracy Dollars” system which left-wing advocates were touting as a hoped-for expansion of the City’s existing financing scheme.

Now, with just two months to go before the City election this fall, we have the spectacle of a Keller-appointed City Clerk Ethan Watson, who the Foundation JUST won a significant financial settlement against (for failure to disclose public record relating to Democracy Dollars), denying $650,000 to Keller’s main opponent this fall, Sheriff Manny Gonzalez.

In 2017 Keller notoriously violated the City’s campaign finance laws when he sought private AND public money for his campaign. Of course he was given a mere “slap on the wrist” post-election.

The system was always open to myriad problems (like having the clerk appointed by one mayor making financing decisions for his competition) and the use of third-party supporters to skirt the supposed effort to keep “big money” out of mayoral races, not to mention the “after the fact ‘enforcement’” of 2017.

If elected, candidates Gonzales or Aragon should work to abolish the current system. If Keller is elected he will gladly keep it intact as it has served him well.

With the recent report of unprecedented revenues flowing into the State of New Mexico (largely from oil and gas), New Mexico’s general fund budget will have increased from $5.7 billion in 2017 to $8.8 billion in FY 2023. That is an astonishing increase in excess of 54%.

The revenues come at a time when New Mexico’s economy as experienced by a majority of the State’s residents remains mired in a slump. The unemployment rate is 2nd-highest in the nation and the civilian labor force is struggling to recover even from earlier in the pandemic. But, oil and gas operate on different market forces such as newly discovered formations and prices that are driven by myriad government policies and international market forces.

So, despite higher taxes and more regulations imposed by Gov. Lujan Grisham and the Legislature, the Government of New Mexico is doing very well. Unfortunately, the State’s economic trajectory won’t change for the better until the electorate demands that oil and gas money which currently fuels bigger government (as seen in the bar chart below) is actually used to benefit New Mexico’s economy instead.

Surprising absolutely no one at the Rio Grande Foundation, the State of New Mexico’s revenues have risen to astronomical levels (an estimated $8.8 billion). According to Dan Boyd of the Albuquerque Journal, “Estimates released Friday by executive and legislative economists project New Mexico lawmakers will have nearly $1.4 billion in “new” money.”

The astounding influx of cash prompted LFC vice chairman Sen. George Muñoz, D-Gallup to say, “There’s going to be a lot more money than we know what to do with in the next few years.”

This is thanks to a few trends:

• The “Biden Bucks” stimulus which dumped billions of dollars into the State to address the COVID pandemic.
• Oil and gas: New Mexico is the only top-producing state to rebound to pre-pandemic oil production levels and reached a record high of 1.2 million barrels per day in April, according to state Taxation and Revenue Department data. As you’ve undoubtedly noticed at the pump, prices at the pump have also been higher than they were before Joe Biden took office in January. Even natural gas prices have rebounded a bit from their all-time lows of a few years back.

The critical question is whether the Legislature will actually do anything useful with the money. Democrats consistently trash oil and gas while the State grows ever more dependent on the Industry. Eliminating taxes on Social Security and corporations are two options, but reform of New Mexico’s onerous gross receipts has long been the priority of the Rio Grande Foundation and would provide better economic outcomes without a great deal of lost revenue.

ALL of these priorities would be welcomed, but the “progressive” Legislature has continued to raise taxes even in times of strong revenues.

According to a leaked memo from the House Natural Resources Committee – related to its portion of the $3.5 trillion “partisan” reconciliation package that Democrats in Washington are working on, a  carbon tax, also known as a  “Carbon Pollution Fee” is among the possible “revenue raisers” in the legislation.

A few months ago New Mexico State University professor David Clements sat down for a Tipping Point New Mexico episode. You can listen to that show here. The episode is more relevant than ever because Clements was recently fired from his job at NMSU for not wearing a mask while teaching. Clements had ALSO stated that he would not be getting vaccinated (all University employees are required to be vaccinated under the Gov.’s new policy).

No one knows how many other government employees in New Mexico are refusing the vaccine, but it COULD create serious issues for the State’s health care system.

You can watch Clements explain his position in the video below.

And, while Gov. Lujan Grisham has mandated that children in ALL schools including private ones wear mask in school, the evidence for this policy is skimpy at best. The CDC studied numerous issues involving the spread of COVID 19 in school. According to the article/study, “requiring student masking was found to not have a statistically significant benefit. In other words, these measures could not be said to be effective.”

“(Numerous) countries, along with the World Health Organization, whose child-masking guidance differs substantially from the CDC’s recommendations, have explicitly recognized that the decision to mask students carries with it potential academic and social harms for children and may lack a clear benefit.”

“Scientists (the author) spoke with believe that the decision not to include the null effects of a student masking requirement (and distancing, hybrid models, etc.) in the summary amounted to “file drawering” these findings, a term researchers use for the practice of burying studies that don’t produce statistically significant results.”

In other words, the CDC didn’t like the results and essentially covered them up.

On this week’s podcast interview Paul sits down with Thaddeus Preston. Preston is one of the hosts of the New Mexico Rising podcast. The podcast attempts to “give New Mexicans a better understanding of their political and cultural landscape, through in-depth engagement with political figures, business owners, and anyone else who is actively engaged in the effort to see our state reach it’s full potential.”

In early July the Biden Administration issued a broad Executive Order on “Promoting Competition in the American Economy.” While there are many things to like in the Order including allowing hearing aids to be sold “over the counter” and “limiting unnecessary, cumbersome occupational licensing requirements that impede economic mobility,” there is one area of the order that should be of special concern for supporters of free markets. Specifically, that involves what amounts to partial re-regulation of  railroads.

In the Order, the Administration encouraged the Surface Transportation Board (STB) — the federal agency that oversees economic regulations for private freight railroads like Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific — to consider imposing “forced access” more regularly. This means that privately owned and maintained railroads could be forced to turn over traffic to competing railroads at potentially below-market rates – a clear violation of private property rights and free market enterprise as we know it. It is like net neutrality but for railroads.

Such a system would cause harm to most shippers and the broader economy, which railroads play a critical yet silent role in.

How would it work?
Forced access would allow companies to petition the government to force a railroad to use its infrastructure and equipment on behalf of its competitor. Railroad 2 gets access to Railroad 1’s lines because the government forces Railroad 1 to provide that access across its network. It is like the government forcing Coca-Cola to allow Pepsi to produce and bottle soda at its facility. 

Switching already happens.
Any shipper who believes a carrier is abusing its market power by engaging in anti-competitive conduct can already file a case with the federal government, and if true, they can order the switch. Proponents want to remove the need to show anticompetitive conduct.

New regulation ignores reality.
Railroads compete with trucks, barges, and other market forces. Estimates show that 80% of rail traffic is subject to competition and thus exempt from rate regulation. There is no market failure.

American businesses, consumers and taxpayers would suffer.
Widespread forced switching would force inefficiencies. Customers dissatisfied with rail service would likely move goods to strained highways. Diversion of traffic from rail to trucks, which are subsidized, create congestion and would further damage the nation’s highway system.

Railroads, like pipelines or broadband companies, cover the costs required to maintain and update their privately owned infrastructure. Investment hinges on a broad base of business and sufficient revenue. By driving railroad rates for certain customers to below-market levels at the expense of other customers through forced access, the government would ultimately hinder U.S. commerce and increase the costs of consumer goods.

You can send a note to Congress asking them to rein in the Biden Administration’s proposed policy as implemented through the Surface Transportation Board here.

Today, August 25, 2021, hundreds of protesters showed up to protest against Gov. Lujan Grisham’s vaccine and mask mandates in downtown Albuquerque. Numerous photos are below including public employees and medical professions throughout the crowd (both groups are being told to get the vaccine, or else). RGF’s president took these photos and his own protest sign reflects his opposition to ineffective mask mandates for children in school (as noted by the CDC itself).

Last week was one of the worst in ABQ in Paul’s memory. He shares a bit of his experience due to the shootings/lockdowns in NE Heights.

MLG has imposed a mask mandate and is demanding state fair attendees be vaccinated. Most New Mexico kids are back to school. While it is more “normal” than last year, there are many challenges facing New Mexicans and the education system. Paul wrote about this recently in the Las Cruces Sun News. On his way out the door, NM’s (former) PED secretary says he pushed hard for allowing outdoor learning options for New Mexico students (to no avail).

Pfizer vaccine has been approved for adults 16 and up. 

The White Sands Balloon Festival has been cancelled for another year. Is this COVID or a federal lands dispute?

According to National Bureau of Economic Research study covered by Yale News on recent research: Using a quantitative model to examine the consequences of extended school closures for high school students, the researchers determined that children living in the poorest 20% of U.S. neighborhoods will experience the most negative and long-lasting effects of school closures. For example, their model predicts that one year of school closures will cost ninth graders in the poorest communities a 25% decrease in their post-educational earning potential, even if it is followed by three years of normal schooling. By contrast, their model shows no substantial losses for students from the richest 20% of neighborhoods.

New Mexico’s unemployment rate is now 7.6%, tied with New York and California for 2nd-worst in the nation.  The Biden Administration says states can use surplus stimulus money to extend unemployment benefits beyond September 6. Will MLG?

What about a “Guaranteed basic income” for New Mexicans? 

Last school year RGF made a BIG deal about getting New Mexico kids back into their classrooms (here, here, and here). New Mexico’s so-called “progressives” including the Governor herself didn’t do much until Spring of 2021 when she finally decided to return students to their classrooms.

Outgoing PED Secretary Ryan Stewart apparently attempted to float some innovative ideas on getting kids back to in-person school, but obviously the Gov. didn’t push it and the Districts who received their money regardless were simply unwilling or unable to innovate. So, New Mexico students lost more time in classrooms than all but 5 other states. Already in the 2021-2022 school year schools in a few districts have shut down for a time due to COVID. 

And now there’s  this  report  from  the  National  Bureau  of  Economic  Research.

There has justifiably been a great deal of discussion/controversy over Gov. Lujan Grisham’s recently-imposed rules requiring vaccinations at the upcoming New Mexico State Fair.

And if you think Gov. Lujan Grisham is somehow basing her decisions on “science” and ensuring that everyone is vaccinated, the fact that  ABQ Pride Fest JUST held its festival at…Expo New Mexico (the State Fairgrounds) with NO vaccine (or testing) requirement should illustrate who the Gov. favors and who she doesn’t.

According to the Gov.’s vaccination order for the Fair, youth who are eligible for the COVID vaccine (12 years or older) must be vaccinated or tested within 48 hours of attending the Fair. The timing of that announcement left little opportunity for those young people who were willing to get the vaccine to actually do so in advance of the Fair which begins on September 9.

Of course, regardless of vaccination status, masks are still required indoors which is yet another dubious rule if all the adults in attendance are vaccinated.  As this excellent piece by Daniel Chacon of the Santa Fe New Mexican notes, there is a great deal of frustration among parents and families of children being impacted. It is also enough to give a headache to policy experts and parents alike.

The most relevant text of the Gov.’s order on the Fair is below:

With New Mexico’s Gov. Lujan Grisham having imposed a mask mandate and pushing HARD for New Mexicans to get vaccinated, the pastor of Calvary Church in Albuquerque, Skip Heitzig has put out a strong, principled statement in support of individual freedom. We wish that more community leaders had such a strong, principled stance.

RGF’s president regularly appears on the radio show ABQ Connect hosted by Jim Williams on 88.3 FM.

School has begun for most New Mexico students. While every school year is different, this year is certainly more different than most. For starters, students are returning to “semi-normal” classrooms after 1.5 years of remote learning and relative chaos. Unfortunately, as of this writing schools in Rio Rancho, Carlsbad, Los Lunas, and Roswell have “temporarily” had to again go “virtual.”

Lost classroom time has had a big impact on academic outcomes for New Mexico students. According to the Legislative Finance Committee, the Legislature’s “in-house” think tank, K-12 students in New Mexico have fallen behind anywhere from six months to two years. Furthermore, lost classroom time will widen existing learning gaps, particularly for low-income families.

Many New Mexicans likely assume that students across the nation, not just in New Mexico, spent most of the 2020-2021 school year doing remote learning, that is not the case. According to the Burbio website which tracks various COVID-related policies, Utah students spent more than 80% of the year in their classrooms last year and Colorado students were in their classrooms nearly 65% of the time. New Mexico students were in their classrooms only about 33% of the time. According to Burbio, New Mexico students lost more classroom time than students in all but five other states last year.

Even prior to COVID, we knew that New Mexico students perform worse than students in virtually any other state. Catching up from both the preexisting learning gap and the one created last year is going to be a serious challenge. Unfortunately, New Mexico’s Public Education Department (PED) is in chaos. After just 2.5 years in office, Gov. Lujan Grisham is now on her 4^th Education Secretary with the recent departure of Ryan Stewart.

At a July LFC meeting several legislators and tribal leaders raised some difficult questions about the ability of the State’s education system as it currently exists to improve student outcomes.

These were not Republicans who have long been frustrated by the growing K-12 budgets absent improved results. Rather, Democrat Rep. Derrick Lente (Sandia Pueblo) expressed concern for Native American students saying they, “have been left to rot because of where they come from” for many years. How much longer do our children have to fail for us to get this right?” Lente continued.

Another powerful, “progressive” Democrat (just named to the 2^nd-highest position in the House) Rep. Javier Martinez, D-Albuquerque said he had, “started to question whether more money is actually needed beyond what we’ve invested. I think we’re losing steam,” Martinez said, “I’d hate to be back here in 20 years talking about how nothing has changed.”

To say that we at the Rio Grande Foundation concur with these legislators’ concerns would be an understatement. We have long held that robust reforms including both increased choice and accountability are critical to improving New Mexico’s educational performance.

Of course, talking about a problem and taking action to solve it are two very different things. In this year’s 60-day legislative session several “school choice” bills were introduced only to be killed immediately.

Will the upcoming 2022 session be different? That is ultimately up to voters. Across the nation school choice is spreading rapidly in states where education policy is not controlled by unions. Unfortunately, New Mexico’s Legislature is not one of those states. School board elections are coming this fall. If you are concerned about education policy in New Mexico, educate yourself on school board candidates and vote this November. The Rio Grande Foundation’s sister organization Opportunities for All Kids New Mexico www.oaknm.org is currently surveying school board candidates and publishing the results online.

Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation. The Rio Grande Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility

On this week’s podcast, Paul interviews Jordan McGillis. Jordan is Deputy Director of Policy at the pro-energy Institute for Energy Research, a national pro-energy public policy organization.

According to July 2021 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics New Mexico’s unemployment rate is now 7.6%, tied for 2nd-worst in the US. Here is how New Mexico stacks up with its neighbors.

RGF’s Paul Gessing recently sat down with KOAT TV Channel 7 to discuss financial details for the proposed New Mexico United Soccer stadium. There are more questions than answers at this point in the discussion which is unfortunate given that voters probably won’t have much more information than what is currently known when they go to the polls in November.

The time duration of the bond is ONE question discussed in the story, but the location of the stadium, final cost of the project, and source of money for the difference between the $50 million bond  and the final cost which will be no less than $70 million and perhaps much more are unknown.

In this story Councilor Davis asserts that the “gap” between the $50 million bond and the final cost of the stadium could be somehow filled by leveraging lease payments from the team. Of course no lease payment mechanism has been agreed to at this point, so these are purely speculative statements by Davis both on the payments themselves as well as what, if anything, those could pay for.

Click on the picture or on the link below for the full story .

Click here for a link to the story.

At the Rio Grande Foundation we pride ourselves on standing on principle. That means that among other things we oppose wasteful government spending and government subsidies for the wealthy (using your tax dollars, of course).

While we are usually at odds with New Mexico’s myriad left-wing groups, it COULD put us in alignment with PRINCIPLED left-leaning groups who, in theory, oppose such “regressive” policies. Unfortunately for New Mexico, most left-leaning organizations in New Mexico are power-seeking, not principled. They support bigger government, not improvements to conditions for the poor. Here is just a brief sampling of issues:

1. New Mexico United Stadium: takes $50 million plus dollars from average taxpayers in Albuquerque to build a soccer stadium. RGF took a stand along with two “Republican” city councilors (they are non-partisan races). Did any “progressive” group or politicians take a stand?
2. The State’s education system routinely fails ALL students, most notably poor and minority students. RGF has long called for school choice and other needed reforms only to be thwarted by unions and their supposedly “progressive” political allies.
3. Back in 2017 the Mayor of Santa Fe pushed for massive tax on soda and sugary drinks which was defeated at the ballot box. Bernie Sanders (a progressive US Senator) publicly opposed a similar tax in Philadelphia which was “fact-checked” as hurting the poor most.
4. Film subsidies are a classic case of New Mexico tax dollars being shifted from middle and working class taxpayers to wealthy film companies and producers. Alas, no left-leaning group in New Mexico has taken a public stance opposing them.

These are just a few examples of RGF stepping up to fight for “progressive” causes when the actual “progressives” fail to act. We don’t claim to be progressive, just principled.

ABQ City Council votes to put a taxpayer financed United Soccer Stadium on Albuquerque ballots this fall.

It was a depressing week in Albuquerque a 13 year old child was shot and killed at Washington elementary school in what seems like an avoidable tragedy if the father’s numerous run-ins with the law had been addressed.

The US pullout from Afghanistan is in chaos where 20 years of involvement falls apart in a few weeks.

The COVID Delta variant continues to spread w/ Pfizer & Moderna vaccines showing only limited effectiveness.

Biden asks OPEC to increase oil production while he attacks US producers.

Despite a judge’s order, the Administration has NOT restarted issuing permits.

Richard Branson may have flown aboard, commercial spaceflights out of Spaceport America, but commercial flights from the facility won’t happen for another year.

Census data reflect population growth in conservative areas of Southeast New Mexico. 

The Albuquerque Journal acknowledges inflation is becoming a serious issue in several articles, but they don’t have much to say about government policy and how it is creating the problem.

Should the New Mexico Legislature be paid?

As we have noted frequently in this space, New Mexico’s Spaceport opened on October 11, 2011. While Richard Branson’s much-hyped flight gained international attention and raised hopes for the facility, the recent announcement that manned space tourism flights would not take place for another year (late summer 2022) has to be considered another significant setback for the facility.

Yes, Virgin Galactic wants to launch tourists successfully and frequently, but that doesn’t do much to gain New Mexicans a return on their $225+ million investment. Will the launches actually happen next year? Only time will tell.

Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin claims it will launch two commercial flights by the end of 2021. 

The Albuquerque Journal has figured out that inflation is increasing rapidly and causing problems for New Mexico businesses. So, we got two stories (here and here)  in the Monday, August 16 edition of the newspaper which include interviews with numerous businesses and a few economists on the rapid rise in prices across the economy.

What was missing? Government “stimulus” policies, especially the “enhanced” unemployment benefits. The only hint of government’s inflationary policies impacting inflation is the following from the owner of Car Crafters saying, “it chafes him that people are out there making more staying home when he sees his staff pushing themselves so hard…It just seems unfair.”

What are those inflationary policies? Well, start with the Federal Reserve. That is discussed in detail by Mises Institute economist Bob Murphy here. 

The generous unemployment benefits and overall economic “stimulus” payments are direct factors as well. People have more money in their hands and with supply chains slow to normalize, inflation is an obvious result.

There are numerous other government factors impacting inflation including rising fuel prices (thanks in part to the Biden Administration’s ongoing anti-oil and gas policies including ongoing permitting issues and the Keystone XL pipeline cancellation.

Navarette is a Washington Post columnist whose writings often appear in the Albuquerque Journal. While we tend to not focus on national politics at RGF and almost NEVER respond directly to their columns, but THIS one (linked above and which ran in the Journal on Friday) truly set off RGF president Paul Gessing who in turn penned this response to Navarette.

Dear Mr. Navarrette,

I read your piece relating to masking kids in school with great dismay. I used to respect you as a proponent for school choice. Once upon a time you used to be a staunch advocate for transforming our schools into institutions that served the children and parents that pay (albeit indirectly) for them. Apparently when it comes to masks you take the “shut up and mask up” position.

Timothy Sandefur is an attorney at the Arizona-based Goldwater Institute. He was the Rio Grande Foundation’s attorney in a case before the 10th Circuit dealing with donor privacy that recently was decided by the appeals court. Paul and Tim discuss the case, the US Supreme Court, and issues of donor privacy.

In the private sector pay for performance is commonplace. Perhaps it is time for “reverse psychology” in New Mexico’s Legislature. A proposal by Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto to pay New Mexico legislators was discussed in an interim committee recently and we talked about it with The Center Square.

New Mexico has an “unpaid” Legislature. While RGF does not take a philosophical issue with having such a Legislature, it is clear that what is currently happening in Santa Fe is not working. Most of that blame falls on voters who have repeatedly elected people who have no idea how to bring jobs and economic growth to the State, but it is at least possible that paying legislators will enable qualified people who cannot currently run for office to do so.

Will paying legislators actually reduce corruption or improve the quality of elected candidates? We don’t know, but we’re not opposed to trying something new. That said, IF legislators are paid, it would seem that the generous legislative pension system could be on the chopping block.