According to the latest Wallethub report, New Mexico is the 34th-most open State in the nation as relates to COVID 19. So, relative to OTHER states, New Mexico continues to reopen somewhat.

The news from Wallethub is not all good as the new report lists New Mexico as a highly-restricted AND high death rate state. Of course, the “sweet spot” is the exact opposite: open AND low death rate. Utah, North Dakota, and Wyoming are three of the states in that enviable position. As the New York Times’ handy tracking site notes, New Mexico continues to see a rapid decline in the number of COVID 19 cases. The 7 day rolling average is a little more than half of what it was as recently as late July.

On this week’s discussion podcast, Paul and Wally begin by discussing the new “viral video” Governor Knows Best!

The Virus that has so profoundly impacted our society continues to wane. On July 29, NM had a 7 day average of 330 new cases of COVID 19. Now NM has a 7 day average of 186 new cases. The 7-day death average is 4.

The Gov. is okay with the United playing, but not Lobos or Aggies. Is the Big 10 Conference planning to cancel their 2020 football season?

According to news reports, APS School Board may not have in-person school begin until the start of 2021.

MLG takes personal credit for highway construction.

Trump issues an Executive Order to keep unemployment benefits coming. While Paul & Wally have serious concerns about the legality and precedent of the Order, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget the package would cost “just” $13 billion in additional debt. That is a small fraction of the proposed federal stimulus packages that have cost in the trillions.

ABQ’s parking attendants have been working hard. Of course, this is a money grab by the City of Albuquerque that hurts small businesses.

More craziness out of local government from both Albuquerque and Bernalillo County.

The following appeared in the Albuquerque Journal on August 10, 2020:

The Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) recently released a study of the “inaugural cohort” of the state’s pre-K program, concluding that “prekindergarten remains a cost-effective way to improve student outcomes.” But the LFC’s own data shows that expanding pre-K would instead be a costly mistake.

The LFC’s study cites “statistically significant” improvements in children’s outcomes, which in real life are essentially meaningless. Children who attended pre-K scored barely higher on the six kindergarten-entry readiness domains measured — just a couple of percentage points at most. In the crucial areas of literacy and mathematics, only about 60% were kindergarten-ready, whether they attended pre-K or not.

Differences in third-grade PARCC proficiencies, too, were tiny. Almost three-quarters of both pre-K and non-pre-K groups failed to meet third-grade PARCC proficiency in English: 70.3% of pre-K attendees and 71.9% of non-attendees. Roughly two-thirds of both groups failed to meet standards in math: 65.9% of children who went to pre-K compared to 68.1% of children who did not.

If pre-K were affecting children’s achievement, New Mexico’s National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) scores would be rising as pre-K attendance goes up. From 2011 to 2019, however, while the percentage of fourth-graders who had attended pre-K almost tripled, the percentage scoring at or above Basic on the NAEP reading exam remained precisely the same at 53%. In math, that percentage actually declined from 75% to 72%.

The largest outcome differences the LFC reports are for chronic absence — missing over 10% of school — and high school graduation within four years. Twelve percent of children who went to pre-K were chronically absent compared to 16% of those who did not attend. Eighty percent of the 1,540 students in the inaugural pre-K cohort graduated within four years compared to 74% of the roughly 25,000 students who had not gone to pre-K 14 years prior.

Both these differences are likely caused by parents, though, not by children starting school when they’re 4 instead of 5. Parents who voluntarily send their 4-year-old to school for an entire year also probably try harder to make sure their child attends school regularly and graduates on time.

That is, children who attend pre-K have exactly the parents most likely to ensure their success throughout schooling. And the influence of a child’s parents greatly outweighs a single year of school, whether that’s pre-K or fifth grade.

Finally, the LFC study concludes that pre-K is a cost-effective use of taxpayer dollars. But compared to what? “Cost effectiveness” means comparing various programs to determine which yield the biggest results for the same expenditure of limited resources.

Policymakers can’t decide if spending $100 on Program X makes sense if they only know it yields an eventual benefit of $106. How does $106 compare to the benefit of spending $100 on other programs with the same goal? In the case of improving school achievement, the LFC itself has identified approaches far more effective than pre-K.

In a 2017 study, the LFC found that teacher quality had the “most impact on a student’s academic achievement” of all school-related factors, reporting positive effects which were orders of magnitude larger than any associated with pre-K. Children’s PARCC scores in math and reading varied by up to 49 percentage points over three years, depending on whether they had effective or ineffective teachers. Low-performing schools that participated in “Teachers Pursuing Excellence” peer mentoring increased the percentage of students scoring at proficient or above on the PARCC exam from 24% to 35% in reading and 16% to 27% in math, over just two years.

Policymakers should be seeking the most effective use of resources to improve student outcomes and help children who need help the most. Based on the LFC’s recent study, adding a pre-K grade to the public schools seems like more of a “cost-effective way” to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic.

The Rio Grande Foundation recently went on the record calling for money to follow the students when it comes to K-12 learning.

But, Albuquerque Public Schools (APS) and likely other districts around the state is considering not reopening the schools to in-person learning until the end of 2020. This is bound to upset a lot of parents and it certainly raises questions about the priorities of the District.

As an alternative to returning a significant portion of per-pupil spending to families, how about the District sends out a survey to parents and teachers to figure out who wants in-person learning (with basic COVID modifications) and which teachers are interested in teaching in-person as opposed to online. The Unions oppose-in-person learning and they have the loudest megaphone, but a fair vote would likely show many teachers who WANT to teach in-person.

Depending on the results it would seem that a significant portion of parents AND teachers could come together to educate children in-person while others could teach and learn in an online or “blended” setting.

The “one-size-fits-all” concept of K-12 education has never worked particularly well. This has been laid bare by COVID 19. It would seem that trying some innovative solutions like this one would be superior to forcing ALL students into a virtual model through the end of the calendar year.

Professional Soccer playing: Yes

High School Soccer games: NO

College Football games: No

Gov. Lujan Grisham has shown favoritism for the New Mexico United from day one putting the owner on her Economic Recovery Council and signing a bill giving the team $4 million for a new stadium.

The best argument her Administration could come up with to justify her argument in support of soccer and against football was “One is a business and the other is not. One is a job and the other is not,  professional sports teams don’t exist on a college campus like school teams do, where viral infection would affect a great many people beyond the team.” wrote Press Secretary Nora Meyers Sackett in an email.

That sounds plausible, but it completely ignores any innovative solutions (like those being implemented by the United) to prevent the spread. Finally, what do the players think? Shouldn’t they have a say in the matter? In pro sports like baseball players who have concerns have been able to sit out if they have concerns.

And finally, young people in general are killed by the Virus at a tiny fraction of the rate of  older people.

One-size-fits-all policies not based on the science and benefiting the politically-connected. Just another day in the Lujan Grisham Administration.

On this week’s interview, Paul talks to Jennifer Mock. Jennifer is the Executive Director of the Estancia Valley Classical Academy (EVCA) based in Edgewood, NM.

EVCA is part of the Barney Charter School network which was put forth by Hillsdale College. It has a bent to classical education with an emphasis on using original texts and the Socratic method in learning. With everything going on in the K-12 sector these days we wanted to get Jennifer on the show to talk about her school and the many challenges it is facing in the COVID 19 pandemic. If you are concerned about New Mexico’s future as a state, education reform, or are in need of educational options, you won’t want to miss this episode.

Bill Richardson had his self-aggrandizing Governor Richardson Improvement Project (GRIP) which blurred the lines between campaign signs and taxpayer-funded government projects.

Now, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s Administration has highway signs throughout New Mexico saying, “Gov. Lujan Grisham Highway Improvement Project.” The Rio Grande Foundation has joined Power The Future New Mexico to highlight the issue and call on Gov. Lujan Grisham to remove her name from the signs and instead credit New Mexico taxpayers for funding the projects.

As if the COVID 19 lockdowns haven’t done enough harm to businesses around New Mexico and in the Metro area, two proposals (one from Albuquerque City Council and one from Bernalillo County Commission) would further inflict harm on local businesses, many of whom have been forced to close their doors since March.

In Albuquerque, the push for mandated paid sick leave rears its ugly head for the umpteenth time as Councilor Diane Gibson is pushing legislation to create “A Task Force To Explore Options For Implementing Minimum Sick Leave Requirements In The City.” It is ordinance R-86 if you contact your councilor to explain yet again, that in the best of economic times this is a job-killer. With the entire City under lockdown and businesses closing in droves, a biased task force is the last thing we need.

Not to be outdone in its effort to harm the local economy, Bernalillo County Commissioner Debbie O’Malley is introducing a “Project Labor Agreement” bill to the County. You can read more here under agenda item 8. PLA’s essentially hand public works projects over to unions in ways that increase costs to taxpayers. The bill will be introduced at the County Commission meeting on Tuesday, August 11, at 5:00pm. Here are a few choice portions of the proposed ordinance:

As we’ve noted in other posts the New York Times COVID 19 tracking website is very useful in understanding the impacts of the Virus. And, the news in terms of BOTH the spread of the Virus itself AND deaths is improving.

As can be seen below, as recently as July 29, the 7 day rolling average of new cases was 330. Now that number is just 221.

The 7 day rolling average of deaths is declining as well although the numbers are more volatile partly because there are fewer of them. The last two days have seen 3 and 1 death.

Does this mean people are “masking up” and that the Gov.’s policies are working? The Gov. made that claim back in June when numbers looked to be going in the right direction, but there really isn’t any evidence of that. Neighboring states like Texas and Arizona are also seeing declines in cases and deaths.

With the State having just entered ANOTHER extension of the Gov.’s health orders will things be relaxed if the good news continues? Your guess is as good as mine. The news on both spread AND deaths is good and we’ll just have to see how this impacts Lujan Grisham’s decisions. She holds the power.

On this week’s Tipping Point NM Paul and Wally discuss the Gov.’s latest COVID 19 orders. There isn’t much new aside from it being extended for 30 days, but quietly studio gyms can reopen at 25% capacity. Wineries are also able to open like breweries.

Mostly the Gov. complained in her press conference about lack of Congressional action on “stimulus.” 

GRT’s are down, but only a little. How is that possible? It has to do with the massive CARES Act spending. 

RGF signed on to an education lawsuit countering NM Attorney General Hector Balderas. Balderas wants to prevent private schools from accessing CARES Act funding.

ONE restaurant owner says the Gov. is doing a great job. Wally and Paul discuss.

NM’s PRC goes for 100% renewable/battery. What’s this mean?

Marathon will permanently close a refinery near Gallup. Allsup’s is closing its Clovis office.  

Back in February (in the  old days before COVID 19) the Rio Grande Foundation called out an Albuquerque City Councilor for abusing the City’s travel policy, spending exorbitant amounts of taxpayer money for her entire family to travel by train to the East Coast.

Additionally, the Rio Grande Foundation submitted a fraud report to the Office of the State Auditor on February 24, 2020. We believe this complaint triggered the investigation by the Auditor.

The news is that after an investigation by the State Auditor, the City Councilor will be paying back $4,000 in “excessive” travel costs. This sorry fiasco should never have happened and likely would have been prevented if appropriate controls were in place, but it is good that some justice was served. You can watch the follow-up story on KRQE Channel 13:

According to news reports, Marathon Oil is permanently closing its refinery near Gallup, NM. As the article notes, both the Gallup and another refinery being permanently closed in California are being shuttered “because they are the highest-cost facilities among its 16 refineries.”

The Gallup facility had 220 employees.

Earlier this year the Escalante coal plant near Gallup was targeted for closure. That facility had 107 employees.

To be clear, the Rio Grande Foundation believes in “creative destruction.” Market conditions change and jobs and economic conditions shift, but we also know that Gallup is an impoverished place. These refinery and coal plant jobs are good-paying work. There isn’t much to replace it. And, those heavily-subsidized and mandated “renewable energy” jobs are construction-only. Once the solar panels and wind turbines are built, there is minimal work to be done.

Recently, New Mexico’s Public Regulation Commission (PRC) voted to tell Public Service Company of NM (PNM) to use 100% “renewable” sources to replace the soon-to-be-shuttered San Juan Generating Station.

Not surprisingly, the environmental left went nuts with glee.

But, what will happen to the rest of us? The following chart from the Energy Information Administration shows that non-hydro renewables are growing in popularity (thanks in part to subsidies and mandates) they remains a small overall portion of America’s electricity portfolio. Cost and reliability are the major factors of course.

While supporters claim the cost of 100% “renewables” will be competitive (we don’t believe them) experts’ main concerns involve reliability. Energy analyst Thomas Conroy:

highlighted two risks associated with it (100% renewables) — a rapid increase of renewable energy onto PNM’s system at a rate that he said has not occurred before and relying on battery storage.

Conroy said it would increase the amount of electricity PNM receives from renewables from 7% to 30% in three years and would need long-term battery storage, which is still a technology being developed and has unknown risks.

“If New Mexico suffers blackouts, it will become extremely ugly extremely quickly,” Conroy said.

These are similar concerns that PNM has brought up while proposing a combination of natural gas and renewables.

PNM spokesperson Ray Sandoval had also told NM Political Report that “natural gas is a necessary component of its transition to renewables because it offers backup reliability to help protect against grid failures when renewables may not be able to perform.”

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham had yet another press conference on Thursday afternoon. She extended New Mexico’s health order for 30 days, but spent a great deal of time during the press conference and on social media complaining about the “lack of leadership” in Washington.

Mostly, as she says in the Tweet below, she wants another federal “stimulus” package with money for unemployment and other forms of government assistance.”

Whatever your thoughts on the Gov.’s “lockdown” or specific aspects of the various federal “bailouts” or “stimuli” we have a serious incentive problem here. The Gov. (and others) shut down their state economies doing massive economic damage and then want a federal government that is an astonishing $26.5 TRILLION in debt to take on EVEN MORE debt in order to subsidize her decisions.

Whatever one believes about the merits of locking down our state economies, the federal government can’t (and shouldn’t) front their entire cost. State policymakers must be asked to make some tough decisions.  Our problematic federalism has bad incentives that will bankrupt our nation.

Amity Shlaes is the author of several compelling books that counter the traditional narrative handed down by historians. Her “The Forgotten Man” showed how FDR’s New Deal policies actually prolonged the Great Depression. Her book “Coolidge” gave Calvin Coolidge the status update placing him among the great American presidents. Her latest book and the primary topic of this podcast is her new book “Great Society.” 

Today the idea of social democracy is popular in our country. The term socialism has taken on a glow. In the 1960s, socialism was also popular, as was its compromise, social democracy. Social democratic principles were the basis of Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. In Great Society, Amity Shlaes shows that planning policy implemented in the name of the collective hurt both the nation and the individual. The result of our collective projects was a new Silent Majority. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has called the book “accurate history that reads like a novel.”

On this week’s discussion podcast, Paul and Wally start out by providing a quick update on the back and forth in the Courts regarding dining at restaurants. The Environment Department releases data seemingly showing that restaurants ARE a primary source of COVID 19 spread, but further analysis of the data indicates otherwise.

This dovetails with a discussion of Gov. MLG’s latest orders which shut schools shut down for in-person learning until after Labor Day.

In a finger waving press conference the Gov. shames New Mexicans…“I can see you at the airports. I can see you on Facebook….”

Despite the Gov.’s aggressive stances and return to a more locked-down situation, according to Wallethub we are “only” the 42ndmost open state in the US.

Heather MacDonald’s piece in May/June Imprimis published by Hillsdale College is worth reading about the COVID 19 madness.

A chart from the New York Times shows that homeschooling is not just for the well-off.

Private schools will have to adhere to portions of MLG’s orders, but will they? Paul sees potential conflict between the State and schools.

What’s the latest on oil and gas production in NM? Paul and the folks at the Foundation wondered.

Santa Fe New Mexican profiles Carol Wight of the New Mexico Restaurant Association.

Single-payer health care in New Mexico would be very expensive according to the findings of a new report commissioned by the Legislature.

On this week’s interview, Paul talks to Lisa Conyers. Lisa was a speaker at a Rio Grande Foundation event a few years back on the Human Cost of Welfare.

Now, she has a new book “Welfare for the Rich” in which she details the numerous ways in which our tax dollars are redistributed by Federal and state governments, but not to the poor and working classes. Rather, much of this government largesse goes to the wealthiest Americans.

The Rio Grande Foundation has signed onto an amicus brief filed Wednesday in Michigan v. DeVos, a critical legal dispute in federal court between a group of state attorneys general (including New Mexico’s Hector Balderas) and the federal Education Department over the availability of CARES Act funding for private schools. The Foundation joins a coalition of 38 state and national groups representing the interests of private schools and parental choice.

As Rio Grande Foundation president Paul Gessing pointed out, “The Rio Grande Foundation has long held that education dollars should fund students, not bureaucracies. COVID-19’s impact on America’s students was not confined to public school sectors. Congress allocated critical funding to both public and private schools with the intent of helping schools reopen safely and serve their students.”

Background: The $2.2 trillion federal CARES Act, passed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, included an Education Stabilization Fund to support schools with the costs of safely reopening and navigating the crisis. The law directed the Department of Education to distribute these funds “equitably” between public and private schools and students but did not dictate exactly how the funds should be distributed.

On June 25, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos issued an interim final rule that gives states and local public-school districts options for how to fairly allocate CARES Act relief to private schools. Many states and local school districts refused to follow the rule. Nine attorneys general and four metropolitan school districts, including Balderas filed a multi-state federal lawsuit against the Education Department challenging the interim final rule and argued that the majority of the funding should be directed to public schools.

This amicus, on behalf of 38 state and national groups, represents the important interests of America’s private schools in this critical debate. COVID-19’s impact on education was not restricted to public schools. With more than 5 million students attending 33,000 schools, WILL and our coalition partners make clear that federal CARES Act relief is critical for the safety and education of the nearly 10% of American students attending private schools.

WILL’s amicus is joined by associations and advocacy groups that represent and support private schools and their families in Wisconsin, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, and throughout the nation, that serve Catholic, Orthodox Jewish, Islamic, Lutheran, other Christian, and independent secular schools, and that collectively educate millions of students.

The following opinion piece appeared in the Las Cruces Sun-News on Sunday, July 26, 2020:

As the head of New Mexico’s free market think tank and a frequent critic of New Mexico’s K-12 system, many are surprised to hear that my two school-age children have been in traditional public schools throughout their educational careers. That will change this fall due to COVID 19 and the policies being imposed by the State. According to numerous reports, parents across our nation are doing the same.

This crisis and our response to it is an opportunity for policymakers to reconsider how education works in the State of New Mexico. As a reminder, New Mexico has perpetually found itself among the lowest-performing education systems in the nation. Innovative thinking, especially policies that redirect funding to students as opposed to bureaucracies, could have positive impacts now and in the future.

While we at the Rio Grande Foundation are often critical of the powers that be in New Mexico education policy, this is not the case regarding COVID 19 and the reopening plans. In fact, our usual criticism is a systemic one and that is the situation here. The idea that one model of schooling makes sense for all students in normal times is faulty. Now, with such widely-variable views on COVID 19 and the appropriate response to it (not to mention the different educational needs for students of different ages and abilities) developing solutions that satisfy everyone is impossible.

For my family with elementary school aged children, the combination of mask wearing throughout the day and “social distancing” being imposed was a deal-breaker. And, while I support “virtual” or “hybrid” learning for some children, I simply don’t think the schools or educators are ready to deploy them on a large scale in an effective manner. We saw this firsthand in spring when the schools suddenly shut down.

Hopefully, school systems have better plans in place now, but the situation remains fluid and chaotic. New Mexico students are already behind due to lost months at the end of last school year. The chaos of masks in the classroom and a hybrid/virtual model that is completely new and unfamiliar to many students and teachers is not likely to lead to improved outcomes.

That is not just unfortunate: it is tragic.

My family is blessed. We can make home schooling work and we’ve already spent considerable time preparing for this big change. Unfortunately, that is not the case for all New Mexico families, especially low-income and minority families.

The COVID 19 situation leaves no “easy” choices, but with so many New Mexicans looking for educational options or even taking on the task of educating their own children, shouldn’t the tax dollars they pay into the system follow the child? Shouldn’t parents have resources made available to purchase computers and other curriculum materials for their children or, if they prefer, shouldn’t they be able to send their child to the school of their own choice? All of these choices involve major time and financial sacrifices by parents in tough economic times. Rather than penalizing these families, we believe the funding should follow the child and help them directly.

South Carolina’s Governor just announced the state will use $32 million to fund low-income families directly this fall. The scholarships are worth up to $6,500 each. These are the solutions that should be happening in New Mexico. Families are paying taxes for a school system that in times of “normalcy” is considered “inadequate” (Yazzie lawsuit). With many limitations and adjustments being made now, that system and the families it serves now face greater challenges than ever before.

I truly feel for our children who have lost so much already. The Legislature and Governor have long claimed to care for our children. It is time to call their bluff and fund children, not bureaucracies.

Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation. The Rio Grande Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility

The RGF recently issued a report written by early childhood expert Katharine Stevens that debunked the Legislative Finance Committee’s paper offering support for pre-K funding. KOB TV Channel 4 picked up the report and did the following interview with Stevens. You can watch it below:

The Loss of a military base can be a traumatic experience for any community. Roswell experienced this phenomenon a little over 50 years ago when Walker AFB was shuttered.

In the new Rio Grande Foundation policy paper, “Roswell and Walker AFB Closure: History, Analysis, and Lessons Learned,” authors Paul Gessing along with Raul Ayala and Colin McGlinchey study the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process and how Walker AFB was closed (preceding the creation of the BRAC process by nearly two decades). 

In addition to BRAC, the analysts look at how Walker AFB transitioned to the Roswell Air Center (RAC) and how that process has gone. They also compare that transition and its impact to BRAC processes in other rural areas. Finally, the report offers a few thoughts on the current situation at RAC as well as considerations for state and local policymakers and considers the impact that the dramatic slowdown in air travel due to COVID 19 is having on RAC and its prospects for success.

The study offers a robust overview of the history of base closures dating back to the closing of Walker AFB and how the Vietnam era spate of base closings ultimately led to the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process that is in place today.

The authors acknowledge the pain and challenges that the loss of Walker AFB caused the Roswell community. Nonetheless they argue that the BRAC process is arguably the greatest federal spending reduction effort of all time. And, if the BRAC process had been around when Walker closed (and the relevant federal programs made available), it might have benefitted the Roswell community.

The completely unexpected COVID 19 crisis which has had a devastating toll on the global airline industry has actually boosted the viability of the Roswell Air Center and its repair/maintenance operations.

Ultimately, the authors conclude, rural areas like Roswell inherently face more challenges than urban ones in recovering from a base closure. Big urban areas have numerous advantages including a “critical mass” of businesses and population, a demand for “prime real estate,” and proximity to supply chains. That being said, changing the relatively business-unfriendly policies of the State of New Mexico would help communities like Roswell attract businesses that would put facilities like Walker AFB (now the Roswell Air Center) to more economical use in the long-term.

The latest US Census Bureau data for 2020 came out a while back and we missed them in all the Corona Virus related news. So, we put together the following chart. You can see the Bureau’s data for the rest of the nation here.

While New Mexico is now in the middle with regard to its neighbors after several years of having been the biggest-spending state among its neighbors.