The latest US Census Bureau data for 2020 came out a while back and we missed them in all the Corona Virus related news. So, we put together the following chart. You can see the Bureau’s data for the rest of the nation here.

While New Mexico is now in the middle with regard to its neighbors after several years of having been the biggest-spending state among its neighbors.

With everything going on in New Mexico due to the economic situation and COVID 19, we know State revenues from oil and gas are down. But how’s oil production? We were curious. So, we checked out the data from the Oil Conservation Division. 

Overall, there has been a 21.6712% decrease between January and May of 2020. What does the rest of 2020 hold? We simply don’t know.

The following chart form the New York Times caught our attention at RGF especially with home schooling becoming a more likely choice for many families here in New Mexico (including the head of the Foundation) and around the nation.

The point is that home school families ARE NOT necessarily wealthy. In fact, as the chart shows, the ranks of families of middle or low-incomes that home school are actually higher than for all families with kids.

Of course, home schooling essentially precludes two full-time worker families, so the data have that inherent limitation. As RGF has discussed, with the chaos impacting New Mexico’s traditional educational models, it is high time for dollars to follow students, not flow to bureaucracies.

We will be tracking the dramatic changes and shifts in New Mexico’s K-12 education system as they develop both in Santa Fe and at home.

In its constant search to put more of New Mexico’s economy under government control, a few years ago the Democrat-controlled Legislature signed off on a study to consider “universal” health care in the State.

Most “realistic” universal health care programs rely heavily on a seemingly-endless supply of federal dollars to stay afloat, but a number of states have had such programs and abolished them when they became financially unsustainable.

Here’s an article about the plan with a link to the full paper here.

The conclusion of the report shows just how costly “free” health care can be. As the report states, “premiums for other families, employer contributions and payroll taxes likely would go up to pay for what could be as much as a $5.8 billion shortfall for the program over the first five years.” New Mexico’s annual budget is $7.0 billion annually, so we’re talking a shortfall of $1.2 billion or so out of that budget.

Furthermore, the study notes, “While the goal is to have all New Mexicans insured, the study acknowledges that the gains in coverage may be overstated since many uninsured residents are already eligible for Medicaid.”

States as diverse as Vermont and California have tried and failed to implement single payer systems in recent years. Since states can’t print money like Washington, DC, one suspects that this report will not provide much impetus for adopting such a plan here in New Mexico.

On this week’s discussion podcast, Paul and Wally begin by discussing the fact that a judge in New Mexico issued an order to reopen indoor dining at restaurants for 10 days. That opinion was published immediately prior to the podcast being recorded. Unfortunately, the State Supreme Court reversed the decision later that afternoon.

Education issues loom large in this episode as Albuquerque Public Schools and other districts have released their “back to school” plans. Wally and Paul discuss the details and why Paul and his family have made the decision to homeschool their children. Is David Scrase holding our kids hostage to keep parents at home? 

A powerful state representative says New Mexico’s Permanent Fund is “racist.” And in education-related news, New Mexico falls slightly in the latest per student spending data from Census Bureau.

Finally, RGF recently produced an explainer video to show how most areas of NM have been minimally impacted by the COVID 19 Virus. An astonishing 11 of New Mexico’s 33 counties (including some population centers) have had zero deaths from the Virus. An additional 11 counties have had death numbers in the single digits per 100,000 residents.

Today’s Albuquerque Journal contained a report which discussed in glowing terms New Mexico’s expansion of pre-K programs. The reality is not nearly so compelling as Katharine Stevens argues in her new policy brief “Why Expanding New Mexico State Pre-K Won’t Help the Children Who Need Help the Most.”

The question of how to expand “early childhood” programs in New Mexico has long been one of the most contentious public policy issues in the state. Recently, the Legislative Finance Committee produced a new report “Prekindergarten Quality and Educational Outcomes,”The report makes multiple positive claims about the effectiveness of pre-K that Katharine Stevens addresses in her new policy brief, “Why Expanding New Mexico State Pre-K Won’t Help the Children Who Need Help the Most.”

In her brief, Stevens discusses several, glaring flaws in the LFC report.

• Correlation vs. Causation:The LFC report assumes that improved results among students who participated in pre-K programs is the result of those programs. The reality is that participation is voluntary and motivated parents are the ones who will enroll their children in such programs and take the time to ensure they get to school every day. It is no surprise that parents who value the program the most have children who perform better than average.

• Failure to ConsiderRigorous, Randomized Studies of Pre-K Programs: One of the serious challenges of social science is the relative lack of randomized control groups. There are, however, two important studies of pre-K that use randomized control groups (unlike the LFC or other New Mexico reports). One such study cited by Stevens is from Tennessee and another involved Head Start.

New Mexico has dramatically expanded pre-K spending over the last decade, which provides the opportunity to add to the evidence on pre-K’s effect on academic achievement. Stevens notes, however, that even as New Mexico has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into pre-K its test scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) have remained stagnant.   

• Finally, the LFC misuses the concept of Cost-Effectiveness. In public policy, Stevens writes, “cost effectiveness does not mean showing that the benefit of an intervention outweighs the cost. It means comparing various interventions to determine which ones yield the greatest benefit for resources spent to accomplish a particular policy goal.”

As Stevens concludes: “The fight for pre-K, however well intended, is the wrong fight for children who need our help the most. If New Mexico’s goal is to expand the school system and provide free pre- school to wealthier parents who otherwise have to pay for it, adding a pre-K grade to the public schools makes perfect sense. If the state’s goal is to improve the life chances of the most disadvantaged children, however, it is a deeply misguided approach.”

If you want to understand the dark forces that hold New Mexico back, Rep. Javier Martinez does a great job of illustrating the jealousy, anger, and refusal to take responsibility for their own station in life that so many on the left harbor. He argues (once again) in this opinion piece to tap into the Land Grant Permanent Fund.

And, with Sen. John Arthur Smith gone next year and New Mexico’s economy likely in shambles, unless the Democrats lose big this November, the Legislature will likely tap this fund. Of course, the mere existence of such funds is hardly “racist” as Martinez asserts. No fewer than 10 US states and numerous foreign countries have such funds.

The Rio Grande Foundation has always considered these Permanent Funds to be deferred State spending. The money is invested and spent over time. And, given the State’s sorry financial condition, it would be far better to use Permanent Fund money rather than raise taxes (the best strategy would be to cut spending, but unless dramatic change comes this November, that is unlikely).

So, IF the permanent fund is tapped, can the Legislature do something besides grow government? Money is fungible. In other words, tapping the Permanent Fund COULD allow for more K-12 spending, more for higher ed, the left’s dream of universal pre-K, AND some kind of tax cuts and/or economic reform for New Mexico businesses.

Would the Gov. be so bold as to do something like that? Will the GOP have an alternative come January? The Rio Grande Foundation has advocated for using Permanent Fund dollars to eliminate personal income and capital gains taxes. Those may not fly, but what could/should conservatives and the business community get behind?

The following is a list of some of the largest “permanent funds” by state:

Table

Rank	State	Funds	Assets (US$Billion)	Origin
1	Texas	Permanent School Fund & Permanent University Fund	55.2 (August 2016)[1][2]	Commodity / Oil & Gas
2	Alaska	Alaska Permanent Fund	52.7 (June 2016)[3]	Oil
3	New Mexico	New Mexico State Investment Council Permanent Funds	20.2 (June 2016)[4]	Oil & Gas
4	Wyoming	Wyoming Permanent/Endowment Funds	12.6 (March 2017)[5]	Minerals
5	North Dakota	North Dakota Legacy Fund	3.8 (March 2017)[6]	Oil & Gas
6	Alabama	Alabama Trust Fund	2.5 (June 2016)[7]	Oil & Gas
7	Utah	State School Fund	2.0 (March 2015)[8]	Public Lands
8	Oregon	Oregon Common School Fund	1.4 (December 2016)[9]	Public Lands
9	Louisiana	Louisiana Education Quality Trust Fund	1.3 (June 2016)[10]	Oil & Gas
10	Montana	Coal Severance Tax Trust Fund & Public School Trust	1.2 (June 2016)[11]	Fossil Fuels / Public Lands

We at the Rio Grande Foundation have found the New York Times’ website tracking COVID 19 to be very useful in better understanding the important data surrounding the Virus and the State of New Mexico’s response to it.

Watch this short, 3 minute video and you too will better understand the situation.

A digital map is also available:

The video below from KRQE Channel 13 is short but shocking. It would seem that, especially in areas where there has been a minimal impact from COVID 19 that kids SHOULD go back to school this fall. It is good for their development and their mental states according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Is the Lujsan Grisham using school closure to force parents to stay home and not go back to work as this video suggests? If so, it is nothing short of immoral.

Katharine Stevens is an expert in early childhood and education policy at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank based in Washington, DC. She has followed the policy discussion in New Mexico for several years and has examined both the Legislative Finance Committee’s new report on early childhood and read Gov. Lujan Grisham’s recent op-ed on the issue.

The following opinion piece appeared in the Carlsbad Current Argus and several other papers on or around July 13, 2020.

Recently, a judge denied a request made by the Lujan Grisham Administration that the Yazzie lawsuit be dropped. That lawsuit claims that New Mexico’s K-12 system is “inadequate.” Many would argue that our K-12 system has long been “inadequate” due to the State’s poor outcomes.

We wholeheartedly agree that New Mexico’s education system has long been “inadequate,” though the issue is not a lack of funding. The ongoing COVID 19 pandemic has exposed the many inadequacies of our K-12 system as well. Parents (and when schools closed this spring, I had two children in public schools) were abruptly forced into the role of home-school teacher in March.

A return to “normalcy” is not on the horizon and that will truly challenge our K-12 system. In advance of the start of school in less than one month, the Public Education Department has presented us with a highly-restrictive proposed opening plan for the fall school year. The hybrid learning model (partially online and partially in-person) is a worthwhile effort, but even staunch advocates of online learning recognize that not all children learn well in a digital environment. That especially includes younger children.

The challenges of computer and broadband access in many parts of our State raise all kinds of additional questions and problems for students, parents, educators, and administrators alike.

The “virtual” experience this spring was cobbled together and disorganized. We hope for something better this fall, but with mask requirements for students and staff alike, social-distancing, and numerous other restrictions, there will be a big increase in demand for alternatives.

A recent RealClear Opinion Research survey of registered voters shows that support for educational choice show that 40% of families are more likely to homeschool or virtual school due to the lockdowns. The poll further found that 64% support school choice. In other words, home schooling, virtual learning, and private schools having more flexible learning models are all going to be explored and likely followed by increasing numbers of New Mexicans.

With so many New Mexicans looking for educational options or even taking on the task of educating their own children, shouldn’t the tax dollars they pay into the system follow the child? Shouldn’t parents have the resources made available to purchase computers and other curriculum materials for their children or, if they prefer, shouldn’t they be able to send their child to the school of their own choice? All of these choices involve major time and financial sacrifices by parents in tough economic times. Rather than penalizing these families, we believe the funding should follow the child and help them directly.

The Rio Grande Foundation has long advocated for school choice in New Mexico. But unions and the political establishment have stood in the way. With the advent of the COVID 19 epidemic we have seen a rapid disruption in traditional education techniques. Problems with our one-size-fits-all K-12 model have laid bare the true “inadequacies” of our educational system. The “old” model of students in one building in lines of desks will likely not return for some time and possibly forever.

The most innovative model available today is “Education Savings Accounts” or ESA’s. There are five ESA active programs in five states: Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, North Carolina and Tennessee. While the details vary by State the basic idea is to allow parents to withdraw their children from public district or charter schools and receive a deposit of public funds into government-authorized savings accounts. Those funds can cover private school tuition and fees, online learning programs, private tutoring, educational therapies, community college costs, and other higher education expenses.

ESA programs are less well-established than other “school choice” programs like charter schools, vouchers, tax credits, and home schooling, but the pandemic is a big problem and policymakers need to have big and innovative solutions. Now, more than ever, those solutions will not work for all students.

Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation. The Rio Grande Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility

As we have learned throughout this crisis, policy conclusions can often be driven by how you look at the data. The New York Times is actually doing a fantastic job of tracking COVID 19 data. They provide data in ways that quite frankly are not being done (at least not publicly) by Gov. Lujan and David Scrase.

Here is one useful map. The highlighted counties have ZERO deaths from COVID 19. One could travel from East to West through New Mexico or North to South through our State without so much as entering a county that has seen a death from COVID 19 after more than 4 months.

Below that map is a screen shot directly from the Times website. We will provide additional posts using this data over the next day or so.

On this week’s Tipping Point New Mexico podcast Paul and Wally discuss the Gov.’s latest orders which are making waves. Paul and Wally discuss a ridiculous tweet from Democrat State Rep. Liz Thomson. Finally, Wally and Paul address the Gov.’s order to wear masks at all times in public.

The Albuquerque Journal runs an opinion piece by Gov. MLG in which she makes a fact-free push for pre-K. RGF is making the case during this time of possible (additional) school disruptions that K-12 funds must follow the child.

The finances of NM’s “major” college football teams will undoubtedly take a big hit this fall. The University is ALREADY saying its financial outlook is “Incredibly Depressing.”

NM’s PED secretary is working from Philly. The media is rather quiet about the issue and people that would have raised problems with that kind of arrangement during the Skandera Administration (like unions) would have raised serious concerns about this situation but have not.

According to news reports “artists” are now using the blank canvas provided by the boarded up downtown businesses destroyed in recent riots to express their artistry. Not surprisingly, “art” is in the eye of the beholder and if you drive on Central (where most of the destruction occurred) it looks like just one long graffiti wall.

The photos below were taken at the New Mexico Bank and Trust building downtown on Gold Street on Monday, July 13. Do businesses get to approve the “art” placed on their walls?

UPDATE: The following information was provided by Leland Sedberry who is involved in commercial real estate in Albuquerque.

I just reread the contract sent to me. the section pertaining to art on boarded up windows is actually stated as an “option” for property owners, and the owners may even choose their own artists. the catch 22 is that the city is only allowing you two choices, either replace the glass using their contractor or agree to the mural “option” where they can provide the artist or the owners can pick their own. Combined with the Mayor publicly stating that if businesses don’t replace their glass, the City will start issuing Code violations, I wouldn’t consider it much of an “option”.

In what can only be called a blatant swipe at the restaurant industry, Rep. Liz Thomson (D-ABQ) put the following post up on Twitter on Monday, July 13.

The obvious implication is that any business that defies the Gov.’s order to shut down indoor service is “dangerous” and likely not obeying basic safety precautions. She also seems to believe that, left to their own devices, restaurants would simply poison or kill their customers.

The egregious leftists over at ProgressNow NM didn’t have a change of heart, but boy are we going to spread around their tweet below which takes a swipe at NM Restaurants by “Putting people over profits.” This mistake might just be the nicest thing Progress Now has ever said about a business!

On a variety of issues Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham seems to have a tenuous relationship at best with facts and science. Again, the Albuquerque Journal gave her space on its opinion pages for yet another article, this time on her push for “early childhood education.”

Set aside the fact that by her own hand New Mexico’s K-12 system was shut down for 1/4th of LAST year and THIS school year’s start is very much in doubt (even with a “hybrid” model, masks, and “social distancing.”

But, MLG wants to “keep the momentum going” on her latest big-spending plans for your children. MLG starts by stating that, “it’s important to understand that these rankings are based on 2018 data, the latest available. They also reflect years of budget cuts for essential early education and human services programs.” As shown in the report below from New Mexico Indepth, her statement is verifiably false.

Early childhood funding has risen every year, often rather dramatically. Rather than pushing for MORE spending on these programs, perhaps the Gov. should find out why our KIDS Count rating (even using 2018 data) hasn’t budged from 50th despite a massive expansion of early childhood programs over the last decade.

As an aside, while the Gov. pushes for more early childhood spending she recently attempted to get the State out of the Yazzie lawsuit which demands more K-12 spending.

Paul and his family recently visited Yellowstone National Park. Normally this would not be news (or podcast) worthy, but when the Governor of New Mexico threatens out-of-state travelers and unilaterally imposes a 14-day self-quarantine, it becomes an incredibly important political issue.

Paul discusses several aspects of the trip including the various states he traveled through and their relative openness or closedness. He also discusses some other ways in which the Governor and her decisions are impacting aspects of family life. You can see a few photos from the trip below:

The Rio Grande Foundation has repeatedly argued that deaths are the appropriate way to measure the impact of this Virus on our State. As the chart below from the New York Times shows, while a small uptick has happened recently, the rolling average in terms of deaths in New Mexico is well below where it was back in mid-May and during most of this crisis.

Have restaurants caused the increased spread of the virus? The Gov. doesn’t tell us. The Gov. didn’t impose as mask requirement until mid-May. What has the impact of that requirement so far and is there any evidence as to the effectiveness or lack thereof of that requirement (or the newly-imposed requirement) on the Virus.

When comparing New Mexico with other states, our deaths per-million rate is better than Colorado or Arizona, but still much worse than Texas, Oklahoma, or Utah. At 254 per-million we are ranked 21st (from highest) overall as of July 9, 2020. 

“Way” back on June 23, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said “you’re welcome” in response to a tweet from the New Mexico GOP asking her to reopen New Mexico’s economy.” Now, of course as the Gov. just announced, New Mexicans face a raft of new restrictions. Who does the Gov. blame? YOU, of course!

New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is shutting down indoor dining at restaurants and breweries and wants people to wear masks at ALL TIMES. Her new order takes effect on Monday (delaying the announcement for three days from making it). But, the new restrictions will have profound, negative consequences for New Mexico’s restaurant industry and its employees. And, of course, numerous businesses throughout our State remain completely closed thanks to the Gov. You can watch her press conference and read more about her orders here.

Recently, I co-authored a piece with national tax leader Grover Norquist arguing that tax hikes should NOT be enacted when the New Mexico Legislature returns in January.

A response ran at KRWG, the Las Cruces public television station. While the author claimed the mantle of supporting tax reform, he made the unfounded claim that, “For over 50 years, conservative policy proposals have been reducing taxes and regulations, destroying unions, and building wealth for billionaires on the backs of average workers.”

This left-wing talking point belies the fact that New Mexico’s tax and government systems do have big problems. The Rio Grande Foundation responded with this article which in part argued,

While we know that the K-12 system is going to require a lot of money to open in a post-COVID environment, the Gov. and Legislature kept $300 of the $320 million in the FY 2021 budget that was allocated to fund a brand new pre-K fund. The Legislature also spent $5 million for the Gov.’s “free” college programs and did not touch massive film subsidies which the Legislative Finance Committee says cost $150 million annually.

And this issue is something that all New Mexicans should agree on. While exemptions and deductions are definitely open to question, film subsidies are tax dollars collected by the State and then sent to Hollywood film studios. This is awful public policy and should be ended at once.

Tax and subsidy reform are long-overdue in New Mexico. Taking more money from hard-working New Mexicans in the wake of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression is simply not the right way to solve this problem.

Two months after the Rio Grande Foundation broke the story with Patrick Hayes and KOB TV, Morgan Lee of the Associated Press did a story about groceries in New Mexico being taxed when delivered by certain stores.

The story was fine and provided what amounts to an update on what we discussed back in early May, but the more notable aspects of the story involved some quotes by House Tax Committee Chairman and “progressive” Javier Martinez. His quotes directly from the story are below.

Martinez seems inclined to cover for the Gov.’s unfair and arbitrary orders that shut down all manner of small businesses under COVID 19 while keeping “big box” stores open by imposing new taxes on said “big box stores.” Obviously, this is concerning for anyone who cares about New Mexico’s economic recovery:

On this week’s discussion podcast, Paul and Wally discuss the ABQ City Council’s recent actions on mandatory paid sick leave. Council recently voted down pandemic hazard pay and postponed a vote on paid sick leave. Council did pass an ordinance that requires businesses to give their employees masks and enforce mask-wearing in their facilities. In an ABQ Journal piece, businesses respond to the renewed threat of more regulation and express dire concerns about the future.

Gov. MLG extends her health order through July 15. The Gov. cites travelers to New Mexico, increased spread to younger people. $100 fine for not wearing masks in public. Mandatory 14-day quarantine for all out-of-state travelers into New Mexico, whether traveling by air or by vehicle. Hotels and other places of lodging are expected to enforce the 14-day travel quarantine for any out-of-state visitors and report non-compliance to state health authorities. Paul talks to KOAT Channel 7 about the City of Albuquerque spending $100,000 on “COVID Safe Fireworks”

The ABQ Journal has a touching story regarding “Shadow Deaths of the Virus”

Paul discusses why it especially touched him.

Another ABQ Journal piece quotes a homeless man who compares ABQ to Detroit and calls Downtown “Dreary, Depressed, Ugly”

Charles Sullivan writes a piece about the Spaceport boondoggle while the facility’s CEO Dan Hicks has been placed on Administrative Leave.