The Rio Grande Foundation has repeatedly argued that deaths are the appropriate way to measure the impact of this Virus on our State. As the chart below from the New York Times shows, while a small uptick has happened recently, the rolling average in terms of deaths in New Mexico is well below where it was back in mid-May and during most of this crisis.
Have restaurants caused the increased spread of the virus? The Gov. doesn’t tell us. The Gov. didn’t impose as mask requirement until mid-May. What has the impact of that requirement so far and is there any evidence as to the effectiveness or lack thereof of that requirement (or the newly-imposed requirement) on the Virus.
When comparing New Mexico with other states, our deaths per-million rate is better than Colorado or Arizona, but still much worse than Texas, Oklahoma, or Utah. At 254 per-million we are ranked 21st (from highest) overall as of July 9, 2020.
“Way” back on June 23, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said “you’re welcome” in response to a tweet from the New Mexico GOP asking her to reopen New Mexico’s economy.” Now, of course as the Gov. just announced, New Mexicans face a raft of new restrictions. Who does the Gov. blame? YOU, of course!
New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is shutting down indoor dining at restaurants and breweries and wants people to wear masks at ALL TIMES. Her new order takes effect on Monday (delaying the announcement for three days from making it). But, the new restrictions will have profound, negative consequences for New Mexico’s restaurant industry and its employees. And, of course, numerous businesses throughout our State remain completely closed thanks to the Gov. You can watch her press conference and read more about her orders here.
Recently, I co-authored a piece with national tax leader Grover Norquist arguing that tax hikes should NOT be enacted when the New Mexico Legislature returns in January.
A response ran at KRWG, the Las Cruces public television station. While the author claimed the mantle of supporting tax reform, he made the unfounded claim that, “For over 50 years, conservative policy proposals have been reducing taxes and regulations, destroying unions, and building wealth for billionaires on the backs of average workers.”
This left-wing talking point belies the fact that New Mexico’s tax and government systems do have big problems. The Rio Grande Foundation responded with this article which in part argued,
While we know that the K-12 system is going to require a lot of money to open in a post-COVID environment, the Gov. and Legislature kept $300 of the $320 million in the FY 2021 budget that was allocated to fund a brand new pre-K fund. The Legislature also spent $5 million for the Gov.’s “free” college programs and did not touch massive film subsidies which the Legislative Finance Committee says cost $150 million annually.
And this issue is something that all New Mexicans should agree on. While exemptions and deductions are definitely open to question, film subsidies are tax dollars collected by the State and then sent to Hollywood film studios. This is awful public policy and should be ended at once.
Tax and subsidy reform are long-overdue in New Mexico. Taking more money from hard-working New Mexicans in the wake of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression is simply not the right way to solve this problem.
Two months after the Rio Grande Foundation broke the story with Patrick Hayes and KOB TV, Morgan Lee of the Associated Press did a story about groceries in New Mexico being taxed when delivered by certain stores.
The story was fine and provided what amounts to an update on what we discussed back in early May, but the more notable aspects of the story involved some quotes by House Tax Committee Chairman and “progressive” Javier Martinez. His quotes directly from the story are below.
Martinez seems inclined to cover for the Gov.’s unfair and arbitrary orders that shut down all manner of small businesses under COVID 19 while keeping “big box” stores open by imposing new taxes on said “big box stores.” Obviously, this is concerning for anyone who cares about New Mexico’s economic recovery:
On this week’s discussion podcast, Paul and Wally discuss the ABQ City Council’s recent actions on mandatory paid sick leave. Council recently voted down pandemic hazard pay and postponed a vote on paid sick leave. Council did pass an ordinance that requires businesses to give their employees masks and enforce mask-wearing in their facilities. In an ABQ Journal piece, businesses respond to the renewed threat of more regulation and express dire concerns about the future.
Gov. MLG extends her health order through July 15. The Gov. cites travelers to New Mexico, increased spread to younger people. $100 fine for not wearing masks in public. Mandatory 14-day quarantine for all out-of-state travelers into New Mexico, whether traveling by air or by vehicle. Hotels and other places of lodging are expected to enforce the 14-day travel quarantine for any out-of-state visitors and report non-compliance to state health authorities. Paul talks to KOAT Channel 7 about the City of Albuquerque spending $100,000 on “COVID Safe Fireworks”
The ABQ Journal has a touching story regarding “Shadow Deaths of the Virus”
Paul discusses why it especially touched him.
Another ABQ Journal piece quotes a homeless man who compares ABQ to Detroit and calls Downtown “Dreary, Depressed, Ugly”
Charles Sullivan writes a piece about the Spaceport boondoggle while the facility’s CEO Dan Hicks has been placed on Administrative Leave.
Rio Grande Foundation president Paul Gessing recently penned this op-ed along with Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform. The piece appeared in numerous publications around the State.
New Mexico is facing a budget deficit due to the combined forces of Gov. Lujan Grisham’s shut down of the New Mexico economy and reduced oil production. It is of the utmost importance that the Legislature not increase the economic pain by raising taxes.
Despite plummeting revenues, the Legislature STILL saw fit to increase spending this year. New Mexico is currently set to spend $7 billion, more than one billion dollars more than it will take from taxpayers: $5.9 billion.
When the 2021 Legislative session convenes, significant budget challenges will remain even with the national economy regaining jobs (May saw an increase in employment of 2.5 million, the highest monthly gain in history.) The easy, traditional response to overspending is to blame the taxpayers for not sending in more cash. The Legislature will look at their own overspending and standing on their heads call it a “revenue shortfall.”
Under normal circumstances, tax increases of any kind result in economic harm. After months of “non-essential” businesses being forced to close and many people being out of work, tax increases would be devastating.
During these difficult times, families across New Mexico have had to tighten their belts. The legislature should control its appetite. It should not say of taxpayers: “let them eat cake.” (Heavily taxed cake.)
This should not be too hard for them to do. If they are serious. Over the years, New Mexico’s spending has increased well beyond the rate of population and inflation. Government spending has increased faster than the paychecks of taxpayers. And that is before the current big-spending Gov. Lujan Grisham and her legislative allies came into office.
Based on data from the National Association of Budget Officers’ State Expenditure Report from 2011 and 2019, total state spending in New Mexico increased roughly 33.6% from 2010 to 2019. Over that same time period, New Mexico’s population increased just 1.8%, according to a report from the United States Census Bureau, and inflation increased 17.2%.
State government in New Mexico has grown a whopping 14.6% faster than population and inflation did over the last decade. There is absolutely no “need” to raise taxes. Particularly not after last year, when a $350 million tax hike – which some are calling the largest in state history – was heaped on top of a $1 billion surplus.
New Mexicans cannot afford higher taxes. A 2018 report from the Mercatus Center measured and ranked all 50 states based on various tax and budget data. On the issue of “service-level solvency” – how high taxes, revenues, and spending are when compared to state personal income – the Mercatus report found that New Mexico was the state least able to raise taxes without harming the economy. New Mexicans couldn’t afford higher taxes in 2018 when the economy was booming. They certainly can’t handle higher taxes now.
Americans oppose tax hikes as the nation struggles to recover economically from COVID 19. A recent Wallethub poll found that just 28% of Americans “think that tax rates should increase to fund coronavirus recovery efforts.” Overwhelmingly – a whopping 72% – people do not think taxes should rise. Even former Governor Bill Richardson (D) has voiced his opposition to tax increases during this time:
“Don’t raise taxes of any kind. We need to attract new businesses and, if anything, get rid of the onerous double Social Security tax.”
Struggling businesses are doing everything they can to avoid cutting hours and laying off employees. Some have already had to move forward with these difficult decisions. Individual taxpayers and families are already seeing their paychecks dwindle.
The last thing the people of New Mexico need right now is to hand more of their paychecks over to the politicians.
Gessing is president of the Rio Grande Foundation. Norquist is president of Americans for Tax Reform. Gessing and Norquist are encouraging all candidates and elected officials to take the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, a written commitment to taxpayer across New Mexico that they will oppose and vote against any and all efforts to raise taxes.
Recently, RGF’s president Paul Gessing took a family trip through a number of neighboring states to vacation in Yellowstone National Park. The trip took us through Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and Colorado.
From the COVID 19 perspective these states have been less impacted than New Mexico (aside from Colorado) at least if you measure by deaths per million. A new report by Wallethub finds New Mexico to be among the most shut down states in the nation while Utah, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming (states in which we traveled and stayed in on our trip) are among the most open. Even Colorado which is listed as being locked down like New Mexico had the hotel pool open and local governments were apparently granted great flexibility in their COVID 19 policies (a concept we have discussed extensively).
Here are some impressions: When traveling with kids on the road, having a swimming pool is HUGE. Hotels in Utah, Wyoming, and even Colorado had swimming pools open. New Mexico has them open only for lap swimming which kids don’t do.
Most employees in various restaurants wore masks (probably at the behest of their employers), but most patrons in restaurants didn’t. In West Yellowstone, Montana, the “touristy” places were socially-distanced, but the “townie” places were not.
At Yellowstone itself the lodges in the Park were all closed, but the campgrounds were all full. The Park itself was about 75% of normal July 4 weekend capacity. Many people did wear masks around the major sites, but most did not.
One playground we visited in Ennis, MT had a common-sense solution: a hand-washing station. Another playground in Durango was FULL of kids playing and adults watching them while no one was wearing masks at all.
A few photos of the trip are below. As an aside, it felt great to get out of town and do something “normal.” I discuss further details in an upcoming episode of TippingPointNM:
In honor of Independence Day this week we will feature one Tipping Point New Mexico podcast. But, we are thrilled to have Bradley Birzer, an American History professor at Hillsdale College on this week. Dr. Birzer and Paul discuss various well-known and more obscure figures in the Founding of America and some of the great accomplishments of the Founding. Dr. Birzer has a book about Andrew Jackson and the two discuss Jackson and his legacy.
Finally, given all the tearing down of monuments happening in America right now Paul and Dr. Birzer discuss the evolving judgments of important figures in American history from the Founding through Jackson and to the Confederacy on issues relating to slavery as well as Native Americans.
Birzer publishes regularly at The Imaginative Conservative.
The Rio Grande Foundation always is on the lookout for unnecessary government spending. With this Independence Day “on lockdown” the City of Albuquerque chose to spend nearly $100,000 to put on four fireworks displays instead of the usual one at Balloon Fiesta Park (which actually cost the City zero).
This fact was not discussed in the recent KOAT Channel 7 story in which briefly shared my thoughts on the issue. In reality, the City could have modified their one fireworks display to embrace reasonable social distancing guidelines (just as it seems could have been done with Balloon Fiesta. Instead, in a time of budget issues the City is spending nearly $100,000 for four displays throughout the City in order to keep people at home.
Click the picture below for the full story:
Anyone who knows that he’s not a huge fan of fireworks. Hanging out in a car and watching the big City display from a nearby park is his preferred approach. It is strange and unfortunate that the City couldn’t come up with an innovative approach that brought Albuquerque residents together (safely) rather than keeping them apart.
In a moment of sanity Monday night Albuquerque’s City Council voted down a proposal to offer “hazard pay” to force businesses to pay workers during the pandemic more and a separate plan that would have created a new mandatory sick leave plan was withdrawn.
The sick leave ordinance would have required businesses that are within Albuquerque’s city limits to give full-time employees 80 hours of sick pay until the end of the year and create a new paid sick leave mandate. 80 hours of sick pay would be 2 full weeks during the last 25 or so weeks of the year.
The Council’s reasonableness is welcome, but of course we are not out of the woods yet when it comes to mandatory paid sick leave. Voters have previously rejected such plans and yet Councilors like Ike Benton keep pushing the issue. At least for now businesses that have been hammered by the economic shutdown, destructive riots, the loss of Balloon Fiesta and the State Fair, and many other economic drivers won’t face additional costs…for now.
Charles Sullivan writing at the popular American Thinker website takes apart Spaceport America in a recent column. He also generously mentions the Rio Grande Foundation and our tireless efforts to oppose and shed light on the poor prospects for the facility.
Yes, as reported, Virgin Galactic had a 2nd successful “glide” landing last week, but that is a very long way indeed from regular commercial space launches that take customers to the edge of space.
While we at the Rio Grande Foundation share the hopes of all New Mexicans that successful launches will eventually take place at the facility, it was always a mistake for the political leadership of our state to spend hundreds of millions of our tax dollars on the facility which has now been open for nearly a decade.
When will Virgin Galactic launch its first group of paying customers? I’d bet the farm it won’t be 2020. Maybe 2021 or 2022? The fact is that we have no idea and neither do they. A decade in and Charles Sullivan’s critique is relevant when the discussion turns to FUTURE taxpayer-financed projects.
On this week’s podcast interview Paul talks to Jason Espinoza. Jason does lobbying in the New Mexico Legislature as well as at the City of Albuquerque.
Jason and Paul discuss the recently-completed special session of the Legislature which resulted in various budget cuts as well as some assistance for small businesses and police/criminal justice reforms. Overall Paul and Jason agree that, despite serious transparency issues/concerns the Session was reasonably successful.
Then, Paul and Jason turn their attention to the sick leave mandate being considered in the City of Albuquerque and how that anti-business ordinance would hit businesses at a time when many of them are just recovering from being shut down or are STILL shut down by the Governor’s orders.
Rio Grande Foundation President, Paul Gessing reviews the following hot-button political issues in New Mexico over the past three weeks:
The Rio Grande Foundation is no shill for higher spending on the state’s top-heavy, bloated, and ineffective K-12 system, but as New Mexico students return to school this fall there is no question that costs will rise as PED, districts, and schools deal with the fallout of COVID 19.
Justified or no, that fallout includes mandatory masks for all students and staff, “staggered” schedules, virtual learning, and temperature reading before entry to the school. All of these will be expensive.
But, through a “swap” the Democrat-controlled Legislature (with the support of a handful of Senate Republicans) took $44 million earmarked under the CARES Act for schools to deal with COVID 19 and shifted it to general spending. Of course, while the Legislature was busy reducing funding to an education system that faces both a lawsuit (Yazzie) AND an unprecedented reality of dealing with COVID 19, they saw fit to keep $300 of the $320 million earmarked for a NEW early childhood permanent fund and $5 million for the Gov.’s “free” college scheme.
The likely upshot is that when the Legislature convenes in 2021 the K-12 system will be dealing with a funding shortfall and Gov. and Democrats in the Legislature will demand tax increases or the use of permanent fund money to make ends meet.
KOAT TV Channel 7 and the Rio Grande Foundation are both tracking COVID 19 spending in New Mexico. You can find an interactive chart for New Mexico and other states here.
Notably, New Mexico’s COVID 19 spending is concentrated in areas of the State that have had serious impacts from the Virus. Also, New Mexico has received MUCH more money from the Feds than other states including those of similar populations (like Nebraska).
You can click on the screenshot below or click here to watch the story.
On this week’s discussion, many topics including: Balloon Fiesta canceled and with it the $187 million annual impact. Will the State Fair and other events be next?
On Friday David Scrase put New Mexico’s opening on hold for 2 more weeks. What metrics are they using anyway? WalletHub study reports that New Mexico is the state with the most coronavirus restrictions.
Albuquerque’s two “dollar theaters” have closed permanently.
The Legislature met (in relative secret). What happened and what about the NM Supreme Court case that allowed this to happen?
New Mexico is 50th again in Kids Count Report. What will schools look like this fall? We may have a better understanding than before.
It’s back…Albuquerque’s mandatory paid sick leave could be voted on as early as June 29th.
There’s no doubt that New Mexico’s reopening has been chaotic and seemingly based on mere whims as opposed to science. On Friday with the Legislature’s special session taking most of the media attention, David Scrase, the Gov’s health/COVID 19 “guru” held his own press conference (without the Gov.) to tell New Mexicans that the reopening of our State will be on hold for at least two weeks (from July 1).
Of course, based on the Gov.’s original phased opening plan which was released back in late April we are WAY behind in terms of reopening. As the screen shot below shows, the original plan was for theaters, bars, and casinos to have opened in early June.
Also, as we have noted elsewhere, there are STILL numerous businesses and services that seem to have fallen through the cracks: studio gyms (like yoga and pilates), amusement parks, swimming pools, entertainment centers, wineries, and more continue to be shut down with no reopening in sight. Churches remain at 25% capacity.
Is there a rhyme or reason to the Administration’s policies? If so it is hard to tell. At the Rio Grande Foundation and along with Power The Future NM we released a plan several months ago to “Fairly Open” New Mexico. Of course, as someone from out of state recently complained with regard to this situation (and a planned meeting here), “Your state does not make it easy to find info. LOL!” 
Before this post was even finalized we found out that the International Balloon Fiesta has been canceled for 2020. Major events with large numbers of people would be tricky under COVID 19 circumstances, but one wishes we had a clearer path forward than the one Gov. Lujan Grisham’s Administration has given us.
New Mexico’s School Reentry Task Force has made its recommendations for how schools will look this fall. If the Gov. adopts them the educational experiences of the State’s children will look dramatically different and I suspect that many more students will opt for school choice or even home school options. KOB TV has a story here. The full recommendations are here.
Among the most important recommendations are:
There are numerous questions and points to be made about this. Obviously the mask issue is a big one. Wearing a mask for long periods of time is uncomfortable for disciplined adults. Getting young children and teenagers will be a major challenge.
Maintaining social distancing is also going to be a deal breaker. For young people the social aspect of school is a major component of the entire experience.
Staggered attendance sounds like a good idea, but the real result for parents would likely be days spent hauling kids back and forth from school. Admittedly child care is a big part of what parents get out of education. Forcing them to run students to and from school throughout the day is not going to please anyone.
Will non-public school or charter schools be more innovative or open than these recommendations provide? Will home schooling experience an unprecedented boom as many expect?
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/66848476/1211674325.jpg.0.jpg)
On this week’s interview podcast, Paul interviews Rep. Rebecca Dow. Paul and Rebecca discuss the recent primary election results and the major changes that will be taking place in Santa Fe in 2021. They also discuss the impending special session of the New Mexico Legislature and what will or won’t happen. At the time of recording, they were not privy to the New Mexico Supreme Court’s decision NOT to open the Roundhouse to public participation in the session.
Finally, Rebecca and Paul discuss the situation at Elephant Butte Lake State Park which is in Rebecca’s district and how that facility is being opened by the State. They also discuss the possibility of state meat inspections and how that could help New Mexico based ranchers.
Leave it up to the “leadership” of a City already distracted by stark public safety issues in a State that is embarking upon a controversial special session after a long period of economically-devastating “lockdown” to decide “now is the time to impose a costly new sick leave mandate on local businesses.”
You can read about the proposal (although it is complicated and unclear) in the Albuquerque Journal.
Forcing Albuquerque businesses to pay mandatory sick leave is much the same as a tax increase which the Rio Grande Foundation has advocated so strongly against in the Legislature.
The LAST thing that businesses (many of which remain shut down) already struggling to recover from the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Forcing businesses to pay out significant amounts at a time when revenue is way down will lead to more businesses closing and more
lost jobs for our city.
Of course Albuquerque voters already rejected mandatory paid sick leave in 2017, but that wasn’t the result the well-funded advocacy groups and “progressive” city councilors wanted, so here we are.
Email members of the Albuquerque City Council and tell them “No paid sick leave mandate!” You can read the text of the proposed ordinance here.
Lan Sena: lansena@cabq.gov
Isaac Benton: ibenton@cabq.gov
Klarissa Pena: kpena@cabq.gov
Brook Bassan: bbassan@cabq.gov
Cynthia Borrego: cynthiaborrego@cabq.gov
Pat Davis: patdavis@cabq.gov
Diane Gibson: dgibson@cabq.gov
Trudy Jones: trudyjones@cabq.gov
Don Harris: dharris@cabq.gov
The Special Session starts June 18 and there is going to be a lot on the agenda for the Legislature to consider in a very short time and with minimal public involvement.
For starters, there is the budget which is the primary reason for the Session in the first place. The executive budget framework includes cuts to state agency budgets, grants to local governments and sovereign nations and a preservation of a portion of the pay raises that had been scheduled for educators while using the state’s unprecedented reserves and federal funding to patch the budget hole created by the shutdown of New Mexico’s economy and the COVID-19 pandemic.
RGF’s take: It is important that the bloated budget passed in 2020 be adjusted, but it appears that the Gov. and the Legislature will wait on the 2021 session to make most of the hard choices about further cuts to New Mexico’s government.
Unfortunately, many of the proposed bills are simply not available online as the session kicks off. So, we are basing these discussions on descriptions in an article by Dan Boyd of the Albuquerque Journal.
As discussed above, this is what you got if you looked for “all bills” introduced in the 2020 special session.
The Rio Grande Foundation is not a fan of teachers unions or any public employee unions. We share President Franklin Roosevelt’s concern that unionizing public employees is very different from unionizing private sector employees.
But, a natural experiment that resulted in a study out of Yale University adds to the strength of our argument. As the screenshot below clearly states, “mandatory teacher bargaining laws increase the performance of high-achieving students while simultaneously lowering the performance of poorly achieving students.”
The logic is simple. In the absence of collective bargaining (unions) districts can use incentives to encourage the best teachers to go into tougher, low-income and minority schools. With unions negotiating on teachers’ behalf the best teachers choose to go to the best (easiest) schools.
It would seem that the issue of collective bargaining should at least be on the table as New Mexico works to improve outcomes for disadvantaged students, but you can count on the unions to work very hard in opposition to anything that weakens their power.
On this week’s discussion episode, Paul and Wally discuss the Special Session of the New Mexico Legislature which begins June 18. As of the recording of this podcast, it will NOT be open to the public. That decision has been appealed to New Mexico’s Supreme Court.
When the Legislature DOES meet Wally and Paul believe that the Legislature will largely“kick the can” down the road to beyond the November election.
Gov. Lujan Grisham has reopened breweries as the RGF requested recently. Bars, fitness studios, entertainment centers remain closed.
Paul has recently been on KOAT TV Channel 7 discussing various potential budget issues. One story addressed the $34 million in COVID 19 expenses.
The Rio Grande Foundation has long argued that New Mexico needs to develop its private sector economy beyond the oil and gas industry (we support oil and gas, but believe New Mexico relies too much on this volatile source of jobs and revenues).
A new report from Wallethub confirms that New Mexico is the MOST reliant state in the nation.
Check out the interactive map below:
The other “most reliant” states are Kentucky, Mississippi, and West Virginia.
Arizona a 9th-most reliant is the most reliant state bordering on New Mexico while Utah at 46th is the least reliant.
