Despite New Mexico’s advantage provided by national-leading reliance on steady federal dollars, the State’s unemployment rate of 11.3% is among the highest in the nation (6th) with only a handful of other “blue” states that have also seen their economies locked down by their governors.

All of New Mexico’s neighbors have MUCH lower unemployment with the next-highest being Texas at 6.8%. Utah’s rate is 4.1%, about 1/3rd of New Mexico’s.

Lest you think New Mexico’s lockdown has been a “success” in saving lives from the Virus, Arizona and Texas do have higher death rates than New Mexico, but the rates in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Utah are all lower (Oklahoma and Utah significantly so).

As New Mexico’s Legislature, Gov., and PRC push forward to implement New Mexico’s “Green New Deal” Energy Transition Act, a new report from SaveOnEnergy.com shows that New Mexico electricity users saw a 10.1% increase in electricity rates over the past year. That is the 2nd-biggest increase among US states and seems inevitably tied to the State’s looming transition to “renewables.”

At this link you can see more data (such as that New Mexico’s 13.8 cents/kWh rate is the highest among its neighbors.

Is the 10.1% increase in electricity rates a sign of things to come? Will we soon join California with rates hovering near 20 cents/kWh (not to mention poor reliability)? We certainly believe it is possible.

On this week’s interview, Paul talks to Rob Nikolewski. A few years back Rob worked for Rio Grande Foundation as a reporter in Santa Fe. Now, he reports on energy for the San Diego Union-Tribune. Rob and Paul discuss the ongoing wildfires in California, the electrical grid, the shutdown of nuclear energy there, and the challenges of eliminating CO2 emissions from the State’s electrical grid.

At the Rio Grande Foundation we have covered the economic challenges faced by the Four Corners region and San Juan County. Primarily this involves the long term decline in natural gas prices combined with the closure of the region’s coal-fired power plants. 

Due in part to these economic challenges, tax revenues at San Juan County are down significantly and the County faced a $4.6 million gap next fiscal year. So, the County Commission just voted to raise taxes (1/8th cent on the GRT).

This isn’t a long-term solution. The Four Corners area needs some good economic news, but when two of your largest job-creating industries face extinction options are limited. We have consistently urged change in the Legislature and approaches by our State to bring more economic freedom to the State as a whole with benefits accruing to the Four Corners and every other part of New Mexico. Unfortunately, COVID 19 and the Gov.’s intense lockdown has caused the State’s unemployment rate to jump dramatically with Farmington’s rate even higher at 16 percent.

Unless something dramatic happens in Santa Fe this fall there don’t seem to be many bright spots on the Four Corners’ economic horizon.

On this week’s podcast discussion Paul and Wally discuss the latest COVID 19 update from Gov. Lujan Grisham. According to her latest pronouncements, theaters, entertainment centers, and bars in New Mexico are not likely to open until there’s a COVID vaccine.  The Gov. also begs Congress for more COVID aid in her recent testimony. There were not many specifics or details, just “send cash!”

In a bit of good news, the City of Albuquerque Council rejected an ordinance that would have “requested” the Legislature place a constitutional amendment on the ballot giving local governments the ability to enact gun control measures.

APD police chief Geier has resigned (or been fired). Paul discusses what Albuquerque residents should hope for on KOB TV Channel 4.

Wally and Paul discuss the policy proposals put forth by the pro-GOP umbrella group Respect New Mexico.

Finally, the Albuquerque Journal over the past week released polling numbers seeming to indicate strong support among New Mexicans for the Gov.’s mask mandate and the policies being implemented by both Gov. Lujan Grisham and ABQ Mayor Tim Keller. As Paul and Wally note, the only poll that matters happens in November.

The following piece by Patrick Brenner of the Rio Grande Foundation appeared in the Los Alamos Reporter on September 11, 2020:

As the country begins to re-open and we assess what the future will look like post-pandemic, states will have to take a hard look at where to allocate funds knowing there will undoubtedly be budget concerns for the foreseeable future. While budget cuts are imminent, and in New Mexico they are needed, that does not mean indiscriminately eliminating programs or services that provide real benefit to New Mexico residents who need them most, especially when they ultimately save taxpayers money in the long run.

Before everything shut down, I toured the New Mexico Men’s and Women’s Recovery Academies near Albuquerque where I met with both the residents and the staff who run both of these facilities. Not only did the residents and staff provide glowing reviews of the programming and facilities, but also the Department of Corrections official who toured with us said that she fights for this type of programming across New Mexico and spoke about how effective it has been. These types of programs are on the chopping block. But it is these same programs that serve as alternatives to incarceration and are incredibly effective in treatment, saving taxpayer money, and better outcomes for participants of these programs.

The New Mexico Men’s and Women’s Recovery Academies are both managed by the GEO Group, a private contractor that manages detention and corrections facilities. While often vilified in the media, this private contractor has spent $10 million last year alone on programming around substance abuse counseling and cognitive behavioral treatment. Rehabilitation programming like this provides care, compassion, and effective tools to help people and reduce recidivism rates.

When you visit, the most surprising element is the sense of community and pride that has been fostered among the residents and staff where the more tenured members act as mentors for the newer residents and they truly pull for one another through this tough transition. The graduates of this program see this as a new opportunity for their lives and they are less likely to fall back into their old ways. Funding these types of programs will not only help residents overcome their addiction and other issues, but they will also help New Mexico’s bottom line.

This programming in New Mexico is new. But inmates who participated in this same programming in facilities in Florida had a recidivism rate 30 percent lower than their peers that did not have the same programing. Assuming this trend holds and recidivism is reduced by one third of the average in Florida after participation in these programs, this could be a major cost saving measure for the state. In 2019 alone, this would roughly provide $8 million in cost avoidance for Florida because they will no longer have to house these reformed inmates. There is every reason to believe the Lea County Correctional Facility in Hobbs will see the same drop as Florida experienced and New Mexico could have the same experience with “cost avoidance”.

Corrections funding was already reduced during the recently-completed special session. When cutbacks occur in the 2021 session, programs like these should be among those preserved. The expertise of private sector providers can provide such services at a high quality and reasonable price, but the ultimate benefit is to the State and taxpayers of New Mexico who are desperately searching for ways to reduce crime and recidivism in their communities.

There is no “silver bullet” to solving crime. The COVID 19 epidemic will have unpredictable consequences for our society as well as crime rates and the criminal justice system at large for years to come. Even in times of tight budgets, New Mexico needs to continue investing programming, especially the kind that can be provided by private providers at a reasonable cost in our prisons and treatment facilities to ensure that we support inmates and residents. Short-sighted decisions now may have a negative impact on New Mexico for years to come.

Patrick Brenner is a policy analyst with the Rio Grande Foundation, New Mexico’s free market think tank. The Rio Grande Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility.

A recent article from the Santa Fe New Mexican notes that New Mexico’s new early childhood permanent fund is unlikely to grow as much as the advocates would like.

Quoted in the piece is Rep. Javier Martinez, one of the most left-wing members of New Mexico’s far-left Legislature. Martinez is and an advocate of “ending reliance on fossil fuels” but he sure loves the money they generate. Unfortunately, oil/gas revenue is down since the pandemic so the fund isn’t growing as fast as he’d like.

And, while Gov. Lujan Grisham cries about Republicans in Congress and the President not passing yet another massive bailout, she refuses to reallocate the $300 million early childhood “permanent fund” to more pressing needs. This fund was created in the 2020 session but apparently it is Washington’s job to fund NM government, not hers.

While Gov. Lujan Grisham continues to plead for more federal money to shore up New Mexico’s finances, we are taking the longer and more New Mexico-centric view of looking at the leading systemic challenge facing our State: low oil prices combined with dropping production.

The data do lag, so we are using the best info available from Oil Conservation Division, but as of June 2020, oil production in New Mexico has dropped about 20% since March. That is a slight rebound from May and the June data is also the latest available.

Prices on the global market have dropped somewhat to below $40 a barrel. Will production rebound in such a price-depressed environment? Only time will tell. If not for the Gov’s Virus policies and the myriad ongoing election controversies, this would be the number one issue facing our State.

The Rio Grande Foundation is avowedly NOT an expert on the nitty-gritty of policing, BUT when asked about the general role of what a new police chief for New Mexico’s largest city should do, we definitely have a perspective. We shared that with KOB TV Channel 4.

1) Police MUST protect property including businesses downtown AND statues. Waiting and simply watching vandals destroy businesses and public property is a bad strategy and it undermines the very role of policing. This includes doing more to move homeless encampments out of parks and other public areas.

2) Politicization of policing is a problem. The Mayor should set goals and standards and let the professionals work to achieve them.

3) “Defunding” the police is simply not going to happen, nor should it. Reforms must be considered to both encourage proactive law enforcement AND respect for individual rights, but even substantial budget cuts are likely NOT helpful in high-crime Albuquerque.

You can watch what we have to say below:

Admittedly, when we at the Rio Grande Foundation first heard of the Fair Deal, a raft of public policies proposed by Republican candidates for the New Mexico Legislature,  we were pretty skeptical.

After all, the original Fair Deal was a 21 point plan proposed by President Harry Truman that would have resulted in a massive expansion of the federal government. Then it was reported in the media that the plan was a “moderate agenda.” The term “moderate” is not necessarily a bad, but it doesn’t mean anything. So, what IS the Fair Deal agenda? We looked and it is actually pretty good. Here are the most substantive parts:

ECONOMY: Protect people’s right to retain more of what they earn (presumably by holding the line on or reducing taxes). Eliminate taxes on Social Security, stop unfair double and triple taxation of small business (presumably by reforming the GRT), and reduce or eliminate the income tax on working families.

Professional licensure reform, streamline mandatory disclosure requirements (unclear what these are or this means in practice), regular and mandatory review of all regulations, and the elimination of at least one old regulation for each new one added.

CRIME: Protect the 2nd amendment; redo bail reform, ensure mandatory sentencing, and require short-term confinement and counseling for drug criminals.

There are other policies discussed in the plan which can be found here. Some of them are written vaguely more as statements of principle than as specific agenda items. We’d like to see issues like “right to work” and New Mexico’s “prevailing wage” laws addressed and “school choice” or “education $$ follow the student.” Also, it is imperative that New Mexico’s laws governing public emergencies be addressed in order to restore balance of power.

Overall, as far as they go, the specific policy proposals laid out in this “Fair Deal” would definitely move New Mexico in the right direction.

Good news!  The anti-gun measure being considered by the Albuquerque City Council tonight failed at 5 to 4, specifically Resolution 20-68 which would have called the legislature to push firearm preemption reconsideration to the ballot. The vote tally is included below:

Lan Sena: yes
Isaac Benton: yes
Klarissa Peña: no
Brook Bassan: no
Cynthia Borrego: no
Pat Davis: yes
Diane Gibson: yes
Trudy Jones: no
Don Harris: no

A no vote indicates opposition to the anti-gun measure. Thank you so much for your hard work in encouraging our City Council to protect our constitutional right to keep and bear arms!

Are New Mexico schools reopening? Are they in-person, “hybrid,” or completely virtual? And, more importantly, what standards are to be used by policymakers? The Lujan Grisham Administration has made a hash out of this and that only reinforces my personal view that home-schooling was the only option that made sense for MY family. Unfortunately, not all families can easily do that and, with an ever-changing landscape of school reopening New Mexico’s already “inadequate” public education system is truly going to leave the vast majority of students behind.

Theoretically, schools in the green areas on the map below are allowed to open (whether that is sound logic or not is open to question), but in Farmington plans were changed on September 3, just a few days before kids were supposed to return to school in-person, due to a decision made by the PED/Gov. Lujan Grisham. The exact reason for that decision is tough to understand.

A similar situation arose in the Moriarty/Edgewood School District. On Friday September 4th the district received the final OK from the PED that they could reopen K – 5 on September 8th. On Sunday September 6th the MESD Superintendent was contacted by the PED and told that the filters in the HVAC systems in the schools in the district were subpar and they would not be allowed to open.

And, we can’t forget about the disparate treatment of public and private schools with the former being able to open at 50% and the latter only being allowed 25%.

Remember that the Centers for Disease Control has recommended that children return to school.

UPDATE: We understand from sources at Hope Christian School in Albuquerque (a private, religious school that has worked VERY hard to open) that the Gov.’s office/PED have been aggressively working to find ways they may be violating the Gov.’s orders and prevent the school from staying open 5 days a week).

Ben Ray Lujan doesn’t want to debate Mark Ronchetti in the race for US Senate. But, he DID take time over the Labor Day Weekend to attack Mark Ronchetti for saying, as he did during an RGF-sponsored “Liberty on Quarantine” event back in May, that he supported “Right to Work.”See for yourself in the Tweet below:

Labor Day should be a time to reflect on how to improve working conditions and keep workers safe.

Instead — as newly available footage makes clear — @MarkRonchettiNM is throwing his support behind ‘right-to-work’ policies that lower wages and leave New Mexicans vulnerable. pic.twitter.com/wKsxqjHhmo

— Ben Ray Luján (@benraylujan) September 7, 2020

Interestingly, while the Gallup polling company releases a poll on labor issues every Labor Day they stopped asking questions about support for Right to Work back in 2014 when overwhelming majorities of Americans (regardless of political party) expressed support for such laws which simply allow people to choose whether they want to support a union by paying dues or fees.

Thanks to the Janus v. AFSCME Supreme Court decision of 2018 all government employees in America now operate under such laws, but in New Mexico, private sector workers still may be required to join a union. Ben Ray Lujan is on the losing side on this issue, but he knows the unions are major financial supporters and have lots of manpower to help in political campaigns.

On this week’s edition of Tipping Point New Mexico Paul interviews Zach Fort of the New Mexico Shooting Sports Association about some bad, anti-gun ordinances that are moving their way through Albuquerque’s City Council. You can take action on them here.

In this space we at the Rio Grande Foundation don’t usually provide details of vacations to other states, but with the COVID 19 lockdown still in place in New Mexico and state-level responses varying so widely, Paul offers some details regarding his trip to Ohio to visit friends and family (his mom’s side is mostly in NM and his dad’s is in Cincinnati) over the Labor Day weekend. Ohio has somewhat fewer deaths as a percentage of the population relative to New Mexico.

For starters, this was the first time Paul has flown since January, pre-COVID. Paul flies Southwest Airlines whenever possible and, while there were numerous changes made by the airline (with flights canceled and moved around) the airline did a great job. Middle aisle seats were left empty but the flights were pretty full besides. Masks were required on the planes and in the airports which wasn’t always comfortable, but if you had a snack or water you could remove them. (bring a water bottle) Airports including Paul’s layover airport (Chicago Midway) was relatively quiet with many shops and dining options closed.

Once on the ground in Ohio there were real differences between New Mexico and Ohio. According to Wallethub Ohio is “only” the 23rd most open and New Mexico “only” the 34th most open, but there are numerous major differences:

• Amusement parks (like King’s Island) and “fun” centers like Dave & Buster’s to use one example are open. Similar facilities remain closed in NM.
• Students in most school districts in Ohio are allowed to go to school in-person 5 days a week. Those who don’t want to go in person can do virtual learning.
• Bars were open with live music although they closed at 10:30pm. We even shot pool.
• Few people wore masks walking around on the street, but in stores and restaurants (until seated) they did.
• One of the hot topics is the politicization of whether or not the Big 10 Football teams will play this year or not.

While so many people are afraid to travel right now, Paul found the whole experience to be worthwhile and flying, in particular, comfortable.

Ken Costello is an Adjunct Scholar at the Rio Grande Foundation and an expert on utilities and their regulation. Paul and Ken discuss the constitutional amendment on the November ballot in New Mexico which would shift the PRC to an office appointed by the Gov. instead of one that is elected. Also, membership on the PRC would shrink from 5 to 3 members.

Ken and Paul also discuss the Energy Transition Act and the push for 100% renewable electricity.

Several measures are being discussed for final passage at Albuquerque City Council at their next meeting which (because of the Labor Day Holiday) is being held on September 9.

The potential measures are as follows:

1) The City Council would request the State Legislature place an amendment to the New Mexico Constitution on the ballot that would repeal a 1986 voter-passed amendment that restricted local government efforts to restrict gun rights.

2) The second ordinance would ban firearms from all CABQ property which includes buildings owned or leased by the City, community centers, and a large number of other City facilities.

3) The third ordinance would create mandatory storage laws for firearms kept in homes and vehicles. It is hard to see exactly how the City would enforce such laws without some kind of illegal search, but the entire ordinance is ill-conceived.

Click here to contact the Council.

The Albuquerque Journal recently editorialized in favor of “bringing balance” to New Mexico’s emergency powers laws. More importantly, there is at least some bipartisan support for reforming the laws that have so empowered Gov. Lujan Grisham since the COVID 19 crisis began in March.

According to the editorial Democrat Damon Ely (who we have certainly crossed swords with in the past on guns and Right to Work) and Republican Greg Nibert.

Awhile back we wrote in this space of what should be bipartisan concern about one person making and enforcing the rules under this law (regardless of party). Discussions are in their formative stages, but some kind of time limit with a vote of the Legislature on whether to continue the emergency or not would seem like a starting place for reform.

Of course, any legislation will have to achieve enough bipartisan support (after the election) to override a likely veto. That effort likely depends heavily on what happens this November.

According to the Centers for Disease Control only 6% of COVID 19 cases have no comorbidities. Paul and Wally unpack this data point and what it means/doesn’t mean.

Under Gov. Lujan Grisham’s latest orders churches can now have congregations of up to 40%. Indoor dining and breweries will reopen at 25%. In her press conference the Gov. also comes after Española when she drove through and apparently didn’t see masks. The Mayor responds effectively and directly.

At least a few legislators are now working across partisan lines to rein in the Governor’s power under the COVID 19 emergency.

If you want broadband stop taxing it.

GOP Convention speakers focus heavily on school choice. This is good news for the effort to bring educational freedom to New Mexico.

Expiration of $600 unemployment benefit? Data questions the economic impact of that “loss” of money.

Finally, Paul interviews Ryan Davis, the new board president of the Independent Petroleum Association of New Mexico about the proposed Methane Rule.

According to the Santa Fe New Mexican Gov. Lujan Grisham has asked State agencies to make across-the-board cuts of 5%. The interesting thing about these cuts is that they are in advance of FY 2022 which doesn’t begin until July 1 of 2021 or 10 months from now.

The article further notes that, “New Mexico is now heading into the 2021 legislative session with a possible $990 million deficit for fiscal year 2022” although subsequent economic data has indicated that the budget situation won’t be so dire, but a lot can happen between now and July, 2021.

Of course, while these cuts are being made and budget chaos continues (with potential, large cuts and tax hikes in the upcoming legislative session), the State is still creating a $300 million early childhood fund for pre-K programs the data for which are very skimpy.

Changes to New Mexico’s shutdown at the hands of Gov. Lujan Grisham, depressed oil prices, and high unemployment rate could also have significant impacts on the budget.

The economic impact of any single government policy is very hard to unravel. The Rio Grande Foundation and many economists both in and out of New Mexico predicted major budget issues for State and local governments. At this point that hasn’t happened in New Mexico and most other states.

Part of the issue is the massive $2.2 trillion federal CARES Act and related “easing” by the Federal Reserve Bank. Included in those policies was a generous $600 add-on for unemployment benefits that ended at the end of July.

As this article from Marketwatch noted, “Some economists predicted that one consequence of ending the $600 weekly benefit would be that Americans would spend less money, which would harm the already-struggling U.S. economy.” We know that Gov. Lujan Grisham and the Democrats in Congress pushed VERY hard to extend the unemployment benefits AND even pass a massive new federal spending bill called the HEROES Act.

But, without agreement in Washington, there was no major “stimulus,” just a pared down $300 unemployment bump from the federal government (Gov. Lujan Grisham declined to use State money to add $100 to the unemployment checks).

So far, the reduced unemployment checks don’t seem to be harming consumers. Again according to the Marketwatch story, “Since the $600 benefit expired though, Americans have been spending slightly more, according to spending data of more than 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders.”

Governments have a way of claiming they want something, but if you actually look at government policies that are in place, it becomes obvious that government policies are the largest obstacle to whatever that “something” is as this policy brief from Margaret Mire at Americans for Tax Reform would seem to indicate.

Consider broadband deployment in New Mexico, for example. With children in parts of our State NOT going to school in-person until 2021, there has been an increased emphasis on broadband deployment.

New Mexico is a big, sparsely-populated state and broadband deployment is a challenge. 25% of New Mexicans don’t have access to it. And worse, according to the LFC $325 million has been spent on broadband deployment over just the last four years with little accountability.

But did you know that New Mexico imposes gross receipts taxes on broadband investments? This Albuquerque Journal article is from 2016 but nothing has changed since then as bills have been introduced and died each year.

Proponents say the deduction provides an incentive for broadband expansion and would be an economic development tool. The deduction would apply to investments in construction of new infrastructure and equipment such as transmission facilities, fiber-optic and copper cables and switching equipment for serving new areas. It would apply only to systems capable of delivering download speeds of at least 10 megabits per second and upload speeds of 1 mps.

“The idea is to stimulate new broadband infrastucture in the state because we’re so far behind the rest of the country,” said Katherine C. Martinez, director of legislative affairs for CenturyLink of New Mexico.

Seems like the Legislature should stop taxing broadband investments if they want more deployment.

John Keisling, better known to many New Mexicans as “Gov’nor Lujan Grisham” is a frustrated New Mexican. Rather than writing opinion pieces for the local paper, he made a biting, viral, satirical video called “Gov’nor Knows Best” which has spread around the State more rapidly than the Coronavirus itself.

The video that both poked fun at AND questioned the Governor is worth a watch as are some of John’s other, humorous song remakes which can be found at his Youtube channel “mathpoet87”.

You can watch the video itself below. He will be on KKOB radio w/ Bob Clark on Thursday morning from 9am to 10am: